MLB Betting Picks and Player Props to Target for Saturday 6/8/24

Matthew Lo
Matthew Lo@holla2mlo
MLB Betting Picks and Player Props to Target for Saturday 6/8/24

Baseball has you covered if you want a large inventory of options to bet.

From moneylines to run totals to first-five-inning wagers, we have plenty of ways to bet the long, arduous MLB schedule daily. Outlooks can be vastly different due to starting pitchers, and a wealth of advanced stats can let us know if an individual pitcher, a bullpen, or a team is due for positive -- or negative -- regression.

Using numberFire's projections as a guide, which MLB odds from FanDuel Sportsbook are most appealing today?

Note: Lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published. All stats come from FanGraphs and Baseball Savant unless noted otherwise. Please check here to make sure you're seeing the most updated projections.

MLB Betting Picks

Boston Red Sox at Chicago White Sox

Boston Red Sox Alternative Team Total Over 4.5 Runs (-150)
Jarren Duran to Record 2+ Bases (-115)

Despite last night's underwhelming two run offensive performance, the Red Sox have an amazing opportunity to overcome their recent adversity against rookie Nick Nastrini.

After we bet against on Nastrini last weekend, the White Sox's right-hander has now given up at least four earned runs in 60% of his appearances, while accounting for a down bad 7.15 xFIP, 6.92 SIERA, and a 13.6% K-rate.

When analyzing Nastrini's main weakness versus left-handed hitters (11.09 xFIP, 5.3% K-rate) and his upcoming matchup against six projected hitters from this side, the Red Sox are in great shape to exceed their slate-high 5.59 expected run total especially with the recent form Jarren Duran has displayed this month including an impressive .344 expected average and an eye-popping 68% hard hit rate.

Arizona Diamondbacks at San Diego Padres

San Diego Padres Moneyline (-142)

In a matchup between Matt Waldron and Ryne Nelson, the Friars have a promising spot to take the lead in their series as an underrated home favorite.

While backing a knuckleballer can be a nerve-racking proposition with their unpredictable nature, Waldron clearly grades out as the better starting pitcher when comparing his current form (3.80 xFIP, 3.30 FIP) and career metrics (4.23 career xFIP, 4.08 FIP, 21.9% K-rate) with Nelson's gas can profile (5.08 career starting xFIP and a 15.6% K-rate).

With a full pitching advantage including the better starting pitcher and bullpen (9th in xFIP versus 24th, 13th in WAR versus 23rd) and a higher rated offense in wOBA (8th versus 11th) and wRC+ 6th versus 12th), our models see plenty of value in backing the Padres on Saturday night with an exploitable 3.7% gap between San Diego's 62.3% winning probability and their 58.6% implied percentage.

Houston Astros at Los Angeles Angels

Yordan Alvarez to Record 2+ Bases (-155)

Heading into Saturday night in optimal form after recording a .339 expected average, 50% hard hit rate, and five extra bases in his last 26 plate appearances, Houston's slugger has a realistic chance to continue his success versus a declining southpaw Tyler Anderson.

While most would be scared to bet against a left-hander accounting for a 2.37 ERA, there are several reasons to believe Alvarez can produce when examining Anderson's concerning advanced metrics including a 5.07 xFIP and a 5.15 SIERA, Alvarez's unique ability to hit southpaws through his career (156 wRC+ rating, .394 wOBA), and his previous accomplishments versus Anderson (.321 expected average, .601 expected slugging percentage).

Look for Yordan Alvarez to inflict plenty of damage with a red-hot bat against a pitcher due for regression and an incoming blowup.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.