FanDuel Single-Game Daily Fantasy Football Helper: Week 1 Thursday Night (Lions at Chiefs)

Thursday Night Football isn't typically known for having top-tier matchups, but we should be in for a treat in tonight's NFL season opener.

The Detroit Lions are visiting the Kansas City Chiefs in a game that features the week's highest over/under (53.5) and a tight 4.5-point spread in favor of KC. Not only should this be an entertaining, high-scoring watch, but it sets the stage for a fun single-game daily fantasy slate.

For those unfamiliar, single-game slates feature five flex spots with identical scoring to the main slate. However, kickers are included in these contests, and there is an "MVP" roster slot. The MVP receives 1.5 times his total fantasy points, making this spot crucial.

FanDuel Research's Brandon Gdula has done a deep dive on single-game strategy, and numberFire has projections if you select the game from the slate tab. It's worth checking out both before making your lineups.

MVP Candidates

In perhaps the least shocking news ever, Patrick Mahomes ($18,000) tops numberFire's projections by a wide margin.

While he will be by far the most popular MVP and overall play tonight, he's projected for 23.1 points, which is nearly six points higher than the next-highest player (17.2), fellow quarterback Jared Goff ($15,500). No one else is projected for more than 14 FanDuel points.

In 2022, Mahomes averaged 25.2 FanDuel points per game in the regular season, and the Lions weren't exactly a stout pass defense, ranking 29th in numberFire's schedule-adjusted metrics.

With that in mind, fading Mahomes completely is probably inadvisable in most lineups, though we can always make the case for fading any popular play in the MVP slot.

That's especially the case because Travis Kelce ($15,000) is trending toward being a game-time decision, potentially leaving Mahomes not only without his best weapon but an otherwise unproven pass-catching group.

And speaking of Kelce, he'll be the toughest decision on the slate if he plays. An uninhibited Kelce would project as one such alternative at MVP -- but there's also no telling whether he would be limited or even be a dreaded "decoy." Kelce logged a 24.8% target share and 24.2% air yards share last season, and there's little reason to think he won't be a beast again in 2023.

In many ways, it will be less of a headache if he's ruled out, but if he's active and there aren't any reports of him being limited, we'll probably need to have some exposure. The uncertainty would presumably lower his roster percentage as an MVP, too.

On Detroit, Goff, Amon-Ra St. Brown ($13,500), Jahmyr Gibbs ($11,000), and David Montgomery ($13,000) are the top options, and all of them are projected for double-digit points.

While Goff was more of a floor play last year, averaging 17.1 FanDuel points per game, he was capable of his share of spike weeks, scoring 25-plus FanDuel points four times. As the over/under would suggest, this has shootout written all over it, so Goff could absolutely emerge with the top score if he goes off for three-to-four touchdowns.

But quarterbacks tend to be highly rostered at MVP, so like his counterpart, Goff figures to be one of the more popular entries in the multiplier slot.

St. Brown should draw plenty of attention, too, and it's easy to see why. In 2022, he averaged just over 9 targets per game while soaking up a 28.0% target share and 25.2% air yards share, effectively making him a whole lot like Kelce from a volume standpoint. With Kelce's status uncertain as of Thursday afternoon, St. Brown has a game-high 77.5 receiving yards prop on FanDuel Sportsbook.

Gibbs and Montgomery might be where we find the sweet spot of MVP upside without (hopefully) being too popular. The two backs are expected to more-or-less replace the roles of D'Andre Swift and Jamaal Williams from last year, which may inevitably lead to inconsistent results but with occasional big fantasy scores, as well.

It's been hinted that the Lions have special plans for Gibbs this season, but at the same time, coach Dan Campbell has suggested he might be eased into action tonight. As if we didn't have enough uncertainty already.

But Swift averaged 7.1 rushes and 5.0 targets per game while often playing fewer than half the snaps last year, so that could be Gibb's floor expectation tonight.

As for Montgomery, he's replacing the Jamaal Williams role that led to a whopping 17 rushing touchdowns. Obviously, we shouldn't expect that to happen again, but there's no question that there's multi-touchdown upside in this role -- particularly if Gibbs is in fact restricted on opening night.

Flex Breakdown

Our top MVP choices naturally make for fantastic flex plays, as well, and that includes even rostering both Gibbs and Montgomery together given that their differing roles could lead to both producing.

We've yet to touch on the KC backfield, though, which is where Isiah Pacheco is the lead back. While he's another player projected for double-digit points, I'm not sure his usage makes him a likely MVP. Between a committee backfield and an offense that revolves around its star quarterback, Pacheco never got much over 15 FanDuel points in 2022.

Still, Pacheco projects for roughly 14 carries and 1-2 targets, and he's -105 to score a touchdown (second-shortest odds behind Kelce). That'll definitely play.

Pacheco will split snaps with Jerick McKinnon ($9,000) and Clyde Edwards-Helaire ($7,500). While it's hard to say how much we'll see CEH, McKinnon has a bankable pass-catching role that can lead to big fantasy weeks. McKinnon averaged 4.2 rush attempts and 4.2 targets per game last year and is arguably more appealing than most of the Chiefs' wide receivers.

And speaking of which, we now have to address Kansas City's wideout group, which has little clarity even if we remove Kelce from the equation.

Based on preseason usage and lot of buzz, Skyy Moore ($8,000) will start and could essentially replace the departed JuJu Smith-Schuster, a role that helped Smith-Schuster accrue 993 receiving yards, second on KC to only Kelce.

While we'll have to wait until tonight to see if Moore can live up to the hype, his 45.5 receiving prop is the second-highest of the night with Kelce off the board. He's an appealing value play at his salary, and if Kelce is indeed out, he might not even be the craziest off-the-wall, contrarian MVP.

Moore is expected to start alongside Marquez Valdes-Scantling ($10,000), who has a similar receiving prop line (42.5). Although MVS only garnered a 13.2% target share last year, he also had a 24.7% air yards share as a deep threat.

Beyond those two, Kadarius Toney ($9,500), Richie James ($6,500), and Justin Watson ($6,000) figure to mix in the most but are probably touchdown-or-bust options. Toney is the most likely to make some noise, though his usage is entirely up in the air after being out with injury during the preseason. Rashee Rice ($7,000) and Justyn Ross ($5,500) aren't expected to have big roles to start the season.

For the Lions, Josh Reynolds ($8,000), Marvin Jones ($10,500), and Kalif Raymond ($7,000) are the other wideouts after St. Brown, and tight end Sam LaPorta ($6,500) is also in play. This is another situation where it's tough to see how things shake out, so Jones' salary is tough to justify. Reynolds projects the best among the wide receivers.

LaPorta could actually be the most exciting of this bunch, though, after getting drafted in the second round and drawing rave reviews this summer. Particularly at this salary, I'm definitely taking the plunge.

Finally, if Kelce is inactive for the Chiefs, Noah Gray ($5,500) would inherit his snaps, giving us another potential salary-saver. It's hard to say what kind of impact he would have with a full complement of snaps, but the near-minimum salary is intriguing.

We probably don't need to prioritize the kickers or defenses in a game that should be dominated by the skill positions. But the defenses are likely to be complete afterthoughts if you want to go off the board.

Interested in playing NFL DFS? Head over to FanDuel’s daily fantasy football lobby to see all the offerings for this week's slates.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.