FanDuel Daily Fantasy Basketball Picks and Helper: Thursday 12/14/23

Since NBA DFS is easier to predict than baseball or football, it would likely get plenty of votes as the best sport to play on FanDuel. Basketball players usually stick to the same minutes and produce at roughly the same rate. Sounds easy, right? Trust me -- it's not!

As a result, NBA daily fantasy is highly reliant on a player's opportunity, so you'll need to ensure that you're up to date with key injuries. numberFire's projections update up until tip-off to reflect current news. numberFire also has player news updates, and the FanDuel Scout app will send push notifications for pressing updates regarding your players.

In addition to daily projections, numberFire also offers a matchup heat map and lineup optimizer to help give you an edge.

On top of all that, here at FanDuel Research, we'll come at you each day with this NBA DFS primer, which breaks down a few of the day's top plays at each position.

Let's dive into today's main slate on FanDuel.

NBA DFS Picks

Guards

Top Plays

James Harden ($8,100) -- James Harden was one of most that disappointed in the Los Angeles Clippers' blowout of the Sacramento Kings on Tuesday, but he could return in a huge way tonight. Paul George (groin) is questionable for Thursday's contest, and it doesn't make a ton of sense to push him against a Golden State Warriors squad that just lost Draymond Green (suspension). "The Beard" sees a lofty usage rate increase of 6.4 percentage points with P.G. off the floor, per RotoGrinders' Court IQ.

Chris Paul ($6,700) -- On the flip side of that game, Chris Paul should be in line for a full night against his former team. Paul has seen an uptick in usage rate (0.4 percentage points) and FanDuel points (FDP) per 36 minutes (+1.5) with Green off the floor, and more than anything, both of these clubs prefer to play small. That'll open more minutes to Paul and Klay Thompson ($5,700) together. numberFire's model loves it some CP3 on Thursday, pegging him at 35.6 projected FDP.

Collin Sexton ($5,400) -- The Utah Jazz are a MASH unit entering this road date with the Portland Trail Blazers. They'll sit Jordan Clarkson (thigh), Keyonte George (ankle), and Lauri Markkanen (hamstring) all out of this contest, and that leaves Collin Sextonand Ochai Agbaji ($4,500) fairly unopposed in this backcourt. The former top-10 pick posted 30 minutes and 39.3 FDP last night after George left the contest, and his salary feels like a bargain for a historically productive point guard operating as lead maestro for the Notes.

Others to Consider

De'Aaron Fox ($9,900) -- The 244.5-point total between the Kings and Oklahoma City Thunder is the highest on the slate by a mile, so we do want to shift some attention that way. Though not a salary-based bargain, De'Aaron Fox still has upside given such a lofty total at a four-digit salary. OKC's defense (110.2 rating) is no joke, but both clubs play at a top-10 pace factor, so the Thunder still allow the 11th-most FDP per game to point guards (49.1).

Scoot Henderson ($5,100) -- While Scoot Henderson has been a risk because of just simply not playing well, he should continue to have a wealth of opportunities as Malcolm Brogdon (knee) remains out. Brogdon's officially questionable tonight, but Portland should have the attitude all year of playing things cautiously. Henderson is projected for 25.4 FDP in 30.1 minutes by numberFire's model today.

Wings

Top Plays

DeMar DeRozan ($8,200) -- The Miami Heat's 112.9 defensive rating is stingy, but the matchup is a bit softer tonight with Bam Adebayo (hip) sidelined. I just can't let go of DeMar DeRozan's role without Zach LaVine as his salary went down $200 from Tuesday due to an effort in which DDR shot 23.1% from the field. He's still maintained a 29.4% usage rate and 43.9 FDP per 36 minutes with LaVine off the floor this season. Personally, it's the best role for a stud on the slate outside of the obvious chalk sans Adebayo, Jimmy Butler ($8,700), on the other side.

Talen Horton-Tucker ($5,300) -- Like Sexton, Talen Horton-Tucker simply benefits from the lack of fear of getting "benched" tonight with Utah so shorthanded. With Lauri, Clarkson, and Keyonte George off the floor, THT has posted 33.7 FDP per 36 minutes with a 24.3% usage rate that only trails Sexton. They're the two primary (only?) offensive creators for Utah tonight against Portland.

Luguentz Dort ($4,700) -- I nearly put Harrison Barnes ($4,500) in this spot from Sacramento's side, but they're nearly the same process play. The floor could be low if the rotation minutes don't break their way, but Dort had topped 28 minutes in three of his last four games before Tuesday's maintenance day. I think he's ostensibly a full-time player in this excellent environment below $5,000. Without a ton of marquee injury news outside of Utah, he makes a ton of sense at either wing spot.

Others to Consider

Norman Powell ($5,200) -- If George sits, Powell and Russell Westbrook ($5,900) presume to take the bulk of his minutes and scoring opportunities. While Russ is always an adventure, Powell is a plug-and-play wing that would almost certainly have a full role. He's seen an uptick of 3.8 percentage points in usage rate with P.G. off the floor and undoubtedly has the upside to score. He's already topped 20 points three times this season with just one start to date.

Jamal Cain ($3,600) -- Miami's rotation became a mess with no Adebayo, but it was the 6'6" Jamal Cain that worked his way into decent court time (29 minutes) yesterday in Adebayo's absence against a size-laden Charlotte Hornets club. Cain's projected minutes from numberFire today (26.0) are reasonable enough to value the 21.6 projected FDP with them. At near-minimum salary, he certainly helps fit in builds that might want or require Luka Doncic ($12,600) or Nikola Jokic ($12,400).

Bigs

Top Plays

Domantas Sabonis ($9,600) -- The Thunder's strong defense is weakest inside. They're allowing the 15th-most points and 4th-most rebounds per game to opposing centers, so the stat-stuffing Domantas Sabonis should have ample opportunities to contribute to this game's lofty total. With forward eligibility, he's my favorite stud inside the contest after lighting up OKC for 56.1 FDP back on November 10th. Neither frontcourt has changed much since that meeting.

Nicolas Claxton ($7,300) -- There's a double-sided sword to targeting centers in matchups with Nikola Jokic. While risking foul issues, the Brooklyn Nets will also need Nicolas Claxton's services a vast majority of the game on defense, and that should increase his minutes beyond a so-so 27.5 per game to this point. Claxton is projected for 41.5 FDP per 36 minutes tonight by numberFire, so if that theory comes to fruition, he has an opportunity to be a sneaky pivot option.

Kelly Olynyk ($5,300) -- The final offensive threat from the Jazz tonight should be Kelly Olynyk, who has posted 36.7 FDP per 36 minutes with Utah's trio out of action off the floor. However, Olynyk's role is far less guaranteed splitting time with Walker Kessler -- especially if Portland goes small and keeps one off the floor. With that said, Olynyk encroached a triple-double behind eight dimes last night in 30 minutes; like his teammates, this salary is just too low.

Others to Consider

Deandre Ayton ($7,200) -- I'm going to be all over the Jazz side of this game, so it does help that Deandre Ayton might return from a knee injury at the right time. With hurdles about restrictions to clear, he could return to an entirely full role tonight against a shorthanded team that already has the league's fifth-worst defensive rating (118.0) that allows the sixth-most paint points per game (53.3). He's popping in nF's projections at 37.9 FDP; I want to keep an eye on him.

Aaron Gordon ($6,300) -- One of the reasons I mentally don't love Jokic's prohibitive salary -- beyond "The Joker" failing to eclipse 60 FDP in four of his last six -- is that Aaron Gordon remains woefully under-salaried in the same frontcourt. He's topped 29 FDP in 13 of his last 16 games. That sort of floor is more appealing to me when Brooklyn (45.4 paint points per game; eighth-fewest in the NBA) is a difficult matchup for bigs with Claxton lurking.

Dario Saric ($5,500) -- Of course, you've likely heard Draymond Green isn't going to be playing NBA basketball for a bit. With Green out back in November, Dario Saric entered the starting lineup and has amassed 41.3 FDP per 36 minutes with Green off the floor this season. There's so ambiguity of if he or Kevon Looney ($4,900) will more regularly fill the void, but Looney logged just 11 minutes in the Dubs' last contest. This platoon seems to be shifting in the Croatian's direction.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author’s advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.