EPL Top Four Odds: Spurs, Aston Villa Duking It Out for the Fourth Spot

With at least 20 matches in the books for every team, we are officially in the second half of the 2023-24 EPL campaign.

The EPL title race is heating up, but there is also a competition to finish inside the top four and guarantee a spot in next season’s Champions League.

Today, we're going to take a look at where the EPL top four odds stand, per the soccer odds at FanDuel Sportsbook.

Here are the top four odds for the top 12 teams along with a breakdown of the main contenders and notable longshots.

EPL Top Four Odds

Manchester City (-9000)

For a side that is focused on only winning trophies, a top four finish is the expectation, not something to be celebrated. City sit second on the league table, five points behind league-leaders Liverpool with a game in hand. They are the current favorites to win the EPL title (-155), per the EPL title odds at FanDuel Sportsbook, and have the best odds of finishing top four.

Even in a down season -- by their lofty standards -- City have implied odds of 98.9% to finish in the top four. Per FBRef – City's expected goal difference per 90 (xGD/90) of +1.03 is tied for second-best. They generate the second-most xG/90 (1.99) and allow the second-fewest xG/90 (0.96). There may come a year where City finally miss out on the top four, but that year is not here yet. Business as usual.

Liverpool (-6000)

Current league-leaders Liverpool has the second-best odds to win the EPL title (+230) and, like City, are far more focused on that goal than finishing in the top four. While Liverpool’s odds of a top-four finish are worse than City’s, the Reds are still extremely likely to finish in the top four after their impressive first half of the season.

The Reds have the same xGD/90 as City (+1.03) but arrive at the number in a separate way. Liverpool leads the league in xG/90 (2.17) -- they are the only team averaging more than 2.0 xG per match. On the other end of the pitch, they allow the third-fewest xG/90 (1.14) -- a respectable mark but well below both City (0.96) and Arsenal (0.79).

To win the title, the Reds may need to improve their defense slightly while maintaining their current goal-scoring pace. To finish in the top four, improvement won’t be necessary -- their implied odds of doing so sit at 98.4%.

Arsenal (-750)

Starting with the Gunners, we are now looking at teams whose odds of finishing in the top four have a higher degree of uncertainty. Arsenal is unique in this respect – on xGD/90, they rank first (+1.09), above both City and Liverpool – but their odds of finishing inside the top four are significantly lower than that duo's.

The Gunners allow the fewest xG/90 in the league (0.79), and they generate the fifth-most xG/90 (1.88). On paper, they are every bit as good as City and Liverpool – the problem is their consistency against lesser opposition.

Of the seven games Liverpool dropped points in thus far, only one of them came against a team ranked in the bottom five of xGD/90 -- their 1-1 draw with Luton Town in November. For City, that number is zero of seven. For Arsenal? Three of the eight matches where they've dropped points have come against bottom-five sides, including a loss and a draw to Fulham.

It’s a small difference but dropped points against lesser opponents make a difference when margins are thin. As it stands, the Gunners are still a good side and are expected to finish inside the top four, with implied odds of 88.2% -- but of the trio of elite teams on top of the EPL, they are the least likely to do so.

Tottenham (-140)

Tottenham and Aston Villa form a two-team tier before a steep drop-off in odds. Spurs currently sit in fifth place, three points behind Villa in fourth and Arsenal in third.

It’s been an interesting season for Tottenham. They were undefeated in their first 10 matches, then went winless in their next five, with four losses and a draw. Since then, they have had four wins, a draw, and a loss. The one constant has been their significant overperformance of xG metrics, which continues to indicate that Spurs belong lower on the table than they are.

Tottenham has scored 44 goals from 36.4 xG this season and allowed 31 from 35.5 xG conceded. They rank eighth in xG/90 (1.73) and have allowed the 14th most xG/90 (1.69). It all adds up to an xGD/90 of (+0.04) that ranks 10th.

With a five-point gap ahead of West Ham in sixth and an eight-point gap between Spurs and Brighton and Manchester United in seventh/eighth, Spurs have some room for error in holding off the other contenders for a top-four finish.

To finish inside the top four, Tottenham will need to catch Aston Villa. For that to happen, Spurs either need to continue to maintain their drastic xG overperformance, start allowing fewer xG, or hope Villa slip down the stretch. As it stands, their implied odds of accomplishing that sit at 58.3%.

Aston Villa (-135)

Villa’s odds of finishing inside the top four are slightly worse than Tottenham's. The underlying metrics indicate that they have been a drastically better team than Tottenham this season, but all they have to show for it in the table is a three-point advantage.

Villa rank sixth in xG/90 (1.77) and allow the fourth fewest xG/90 (1.27). Their xGD/90 of +0.50 ranks fifth and is nearly a half-goal greater than Spurs’. Like Tottenham, they have overperformed their xG in attack, netting 43 times from 37.2 xG, but unlike Spurs, they have not overperformed on defense. Their 27 goals conceded is directly in line with their 26.7 xG allowed.

Aston Villa has an actual goal difference of +16 from an xG difference of +10.4. Spurs have an actual goal difference of +13 from an xG difference of +.09.

Villa’s issue has been their home/road splits. At home, they are undefeated, with nine wins, one draw, and an xGD/90 of +1.20 -- third-best in the split in the EPL. In their 11 road fixtures, they have four wins, three draws, and four losses with an xGD/90 of -0.14 -- eighth in the league.

Their home form will be tested in the second half of the season. Their schedule includes home fixtures against Liverpool, Chelsea, Tottenham, Manchester United, and Newcastle. Their road fixtures include matches against Arsenal and Manchester City, but outside of those two, they face only one side currently ranked inside the top nine in xG/90 -- Brighton -- away from home the rest of the way.

If Villa can maintain their impressive form at home and take care of business against lesser opponents on the road, a top-four finish is well within their grasp. At the moment, their implied odds of doing so sit at 57.5%.

Others

After Spurs and Aston Villa, there is a significant drop in odds to finish inside the top four.

Newcastle (+1400) is the most likely of the remaining teams to do so, with implied odds of 6.7%. They sit in 10th, 14 points behind Villa in fourth, and are on a four-match losing streak. One plus for the Toons is their remaining schedule as they have already faced Liverpool and Manchester City twice. If they can turn things around, they could make an improbable move up the table in the second half of the season.

Next up is Chelsea (+1600). The Blues sit in ninth on the table, 12 points behind Villa. Their underlying metrics indicate that they are a top-four side, but they have drastically underperformed those xG numbers. Chelsea has an actual goal difference of +4 from an expected goal difference of +11.9. After a half-season of underperformance, Chelsea has a large mountain to climb, but they have won three in a row and have the talent to pull it off. The margins will be very thin, though. Their implied odds for a top four finish sit at just 5.9%.

Manchester United (+2300) are extremely fortunate to be sitting in eighth on the league table. They have one more point than Chelsea despite an xG difference of -3.8 that is 15.7 xG lower than the Blues’. Making up an 11-point gap on Aston Villa is not impossible, but it will require United to improve in every phase of the game. They rank outside the top 10 in both xG and xG allowed. They have struggled at home and been even worse on the road.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.