Diamondbacks at Phillies: How Should You Bet Game 2?

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From moneylines to run totals to first-five-inning wagers, we have plenty of ways to bet the long, arduous MLB schedule daily. Outlooks can be vastly different due to starting pitchers, and a wealth of advanced stats can let us know if an individual pitcher, a bullpen, or a team is due for positive -- or negative -- regression.

Using numberFire's projections as a guide, which MLB odds from FanDuel Sportsbook are most appealing today?

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Arizona Diamondbacks at Philadelphia Phillies

Phillies -1.5 (+126)

The Philadelphia Phillies scored all five of their runs yesterday before the 5th inning had concluded and managed to hold the line for an eventual 5-3 win.

In the process, they managed to cover as 1.5-run favorites against the Arizona Diamondbacks thanks largely to their advantage on the mound. With a similar advantage tonight, I'm expecting a similar result.

Merrill Kelly toes the rubber for the visiting D-backs tonight, fresh off a dominant postseason debut. The 35-year-old righty locked down the Los Angeles Dodgers in the Divisional Series, shutting them out through 6.1 innings and allowing just five total baserunners.

That performance came on the heels of the best regular season of Kelly's career. He set career highs across the board, including in WAR (3.9), ERA (3.29), and strikeout rate (25.9%). However, his expected numbers suggest that a bit of luck was to thank for his lights-out regular season.

Kelly's expected ERA (4.13) was solid, but not spectacular, and certainly not indicative of someone we should fade in the playoffs. While his strikeouts soared, so too did his walks -- up to a career-high 9.6% rate. Furthermore, Kelly allowed a career-high 41.8% hard-hit rate, a 30th percentile mark league-wide, and a 5.3-percentage-point jump on last year's number.

Furthermore, Kelly struggled away from Chase Field for the third consecutive season. While a 2.59 ERA and .258 wOBA at home are great numbers, they won't do him much good tonight. On the road, Kelly pitched to only a 4.07 ERA and a .332 wOBA.

Philly, meanwhile, has absolutely shredded righties at home, especially over the second half of the season. Since the All-Star break, the Phillies rank fifth in wOBA (.345), fourth in ISO (.218), and sixth in wRC+ (116) against those splits.

They've additionally recorded 16.0 weighted changeup runs above average (wCH) -- the sixth-highest mark in baseball and an important note considering Kelly's changeup was his most effective pitch this season. Per Statcast, Kelly threw his changeup 23.1% of the time, while opposing hitters put up a measly .218 wOBA and 35.5% hard-hit rate against it. With a run value of 16, Statcast graded Kelly's changeup as the second-best in the bigs.

That said, Kelly pitched well in his lone prior matchup with Philly. In a June loss, Kelly gave up 3 runs across 6.0 innings of work while striking out 7, so it's not a guarantee that the Phillies light up the scoreboard tonight.

Thankfully, they could have a quiet night at the plate and still cover this 1.5-run line thanks to their own righty, Aaron Nola, getting the start.

Nola had a down year by his standards, pitching to a 4.46 ERA. His strikeout rate fell from last season (29.1% to 25.5%), while his walks (3.6% to 5.7%) and hard-hit rate (31.6% to 38.5%) were both up. On top of that, Nola allowed a career-worst 1.49 HR/9 and 8.3% barrel rate.

Yet... he still finished with a 3.77 expected ERA, and all of his periphery numbers were better than Merrill Kelly's. One guy just had a 3.29 ERA, and the other had a 4.46 ERA.

Baseball is weird that way.

Still, I'm much more inclined to trust Nola, mainly due to how well he's pitched at home. He's 2-0 at Citizens Bank Park this postseason, allowing 9 hits and just 2 runs across 12.2 innings. Nola has been more effective at home throughout his career, and this season was no different.

Looking at those splits, it's hard not to feel good about his chances tonight. The Diamondbacks are a great story, but I'm not sure they have the offensive firepower to get to Nola. They really struggled against righties over the second half of the season, ranking 22nd in wOBA (.308), 26th in ISO (.148), and 23rd in wRC+ (91) from the All-Star break onward.

On top of that, they managed just 3 hits off last night's starter, Zack Wheeler, in a game that felt decided after the 3rd inning. With that result, the Phillies have now won 10 of their last 12 home playoff games over the last two postseason -- 9 of which came by two-plus runs.

If you're nervous about Philly having to win by two runs, Phillies ML (-156) is certainly an option. While the value isn't nearly as good as the runline, you could pair it with some of the top player props and take advantage of FanDuel's Same Game Parlay Profit Boost for Game 2.

Regardless, make sure you're backing the home favorites as they look to take a 2-0 lead in the series.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.