Diamondbacks at Phillies: 3 Player Prop Bets to Target for Game 2

Player props can be useful in a variety of ways -- from taking advantage of them straight up to measuring a player's potential to produce in daily fantasy baseball on FanDuel. Here, we're going to focus on the former.
Utilizing numberFire's projections as a guide, here are some MLB player props bets that look appealing via the MLB odds at FanDuel Sportsbook.
Please note that betting lines and numberFire's projections may change throughout the day after this article is published. Also, the weather may be an issue in some locations.
MLB Prop Bets to Target
Corbin Carroll To Record 2+ Bases (+130)
After a 5-3 loss in last night's matchup, the Arizona Diamondbacks will look to bounce back in Game 2 of the NLCS against the Philadelphia Phillies, and I'm targeting Corbin Carroll to get things going early for Arizona.
Carroll and the D'Backs will go up against Aaron Nola, who had a somewhat shaky regular season (4.46 ERA) but has delivered so far in the playoffs (12.2 IP, 9 H, 2 ER, 12 Ks).
Though Nola doesn't show any gaping blind spots in his performance, his splits take a bit of a punch against left-handed batters and include a .314 wOBA, .444 SLG, 1.66 HR/9, 41.9% fly-ball rate, and 15.4% HR/FB ratio.
While I don't foresee a reckless outing for Nola tonight, I do think Arizona's leadoff hitter is in a decent spot to exploit this handedness matchup.
Carroll posted a .286 BA, .552 SLG, 146 wRC+, 40.6% fly-ball rate, and 16.7% HR/FB ratio against right-handed pitchers this season.
He's seen a fairly significant increase in these numbers in his last 115 plate appearances, with these splits skyrocketing to a .353 BA, .559 SLG, and 167 wRC+ during this span.
This is enough evidence for me to like Carroll here at plus odds, but it doesn't hurt that he has been raking so far in the playoffs (8-21, including one double and two home runs) and boasts the advantage of batting leadoff.
If you are in on Carroll, I'd also take a look at him To Record a Run (+115); he recorded 116 runs in the regular season (seventh in MLB) and should see a decent chance to get in scoring position tonight.
Trea Turner To Record 3+ Bases (+180)
Merrill Kelly is on the bump for the Diamondbacks tonight, and though this should be a welcome sign to Arizona fans, nobody is more excited about this matchup than Trea Turner.
Turner has been good against right-handed pitchers all season, putting up a .282 BA, .472 SLG, and 115 wRC+.
But Turner's play as of late? Absolutely obnoxious.
In his final 100 regular season plate appearances against pitchers with this handedness, he posted a .385 BA, .791 SLG, .226 wRC+, 42.9% fly-ball rate, and 27.3% HR/FB ratio.
This otherworldly play hasn't stopped in the playoffs. Through seven postseason games, he's gone 14-28, including five doubles and two home runs.
You'd be hard-pressed to find a reason not to side with Turner tonight -- it's not like Arizona would ever intentionally walk the guy that bats before Bryce Harper -- it's more just a matter of finding the best value Turner props.
While I clearly have faith in Turner To Record 2+ Bases at -115, I find more value in his odds to grab three bases -- especially considering he's recorded 3+ bases in five out of seven playoff games.
It's also worth taking a look at Turner To Hit A Home Run at +370 or Turner To Hit First Home Run at +800 (he bats second in the lineup), but his penchant for hitting doubles has me leaning towards total bases more so than this.
Whichever way you spin it, I think Turner has proved he is the batter to side with in Game 2.
Merrill Kelly Over 4.5 Strikeouts (-125)
Notwithstanding the aforementioned spiel about how Turner could destroy tonight, I still like Merrill Kelly's chances to punch out five batters tonight.
Zac Gallen gave up three four-baggers to Philly batters in the first two innings of last night's game and still stayed on the mound through five innings, so it's possible that two things could be true here with Kelly and Turner.
Kelly stuck out five-plus batters in his last seven starts. On the season, Kelly fanned at least 5 batters in 22 out of his 30 starts.
He enters the night with a 25.9% strikeout rate (14th) and is facing a team that, when not destroying the ball, is fairly K-prone.
The Phillies ended the season with a 23.9% strikeout rate (11th). This number has seen an uptick in the playoffs, now standing at 24.6%.
Kelly started one game against Philadelphia this season, putting up a 6 IP, 3 ER, and 7 Ks stat line. I imagine his outing tonight will look somewhat similar, give or take a couple runs and strikeouts.
History shows that Kelly is more likely to punch out five-plus batters (73.3% of time this season) than not (26.7% of the time), and I think the Phillies offense has room to do some damage without jeopardizing the over on this prop.
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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author’s advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.



