NFL

Daily Fantasy Football Picks and Helper: Week 14

Brandon Gdula
Brandon Gdula@gdula13
Daily Fantasy Football Picks and Helper: Week 14

The Week 14 main slate has some pretty natural games to stack but a lot of weather concerns and low totals, too.

How should we proceed as a result?

Let's take a look at some of the best daily fantasy football plays at each position -- accounting for salary -- on the Week 14 FanDuel main slate.

Slate Overview

Here is a snapshot of each team's outlook, including opponent, implied team total, over/under, and spread based on FanDuel Sportsbook odds, and opponent defensive ranks for overall defense, pass defense, and rush defense, based on numberFire's Net Expected Points (NEP) model.

Team
Opponent
Implied Total
Spread
Over/Under
Opp D Rank
Opp Pass D Rank
Opp Rush D Rank
SFSEA28.5-10.546.5211423
KCBUF25-1.548.5111112
BALLA24-7.540.5161528
BUF@KC23.51.548.58629
DET@CHI23.25-3.043.523292
LACDEN23-2.543.5292730
IND@CIN22.5-1.543.5282331
View Full Table

Quarterbacks

Josh Allen, Buffalo Bills

FanDuel Salary: $9,000
Matchup: at Kansas City Chiefs

The Chiefs and Bills are in the game of the main slate, and both need wins.

Although the Bills are on the road, they need this game much more than the Chiefs do, and quarterback Josh Allen has frankly had a much more fruitful fantasy season than Patrick Mahomes ($8,400).

The Bills' offense is coming off of a bye, so they should have answers for a Chiefs defense that ranks top-six in EPA (expected points added) per drop back based on numberFire's opponent-adjusted model.

In three games against top-eight pass defenses this season, Allen has averaged 277.0 yards and 2.7 touchdowns passing with 22.7 rushing yards and 5.0 carries per game.

There are a lot of quarterbacks with upside this week, so we need to be receptive to saving salary to get to them. That starts with Allen.

Lamar Jackson, Baltimore Ravens

FanDuel Salary: $8,000
Matchup: vs. Los Angeles Rams

Like I already noted, there are a lot of upside quarterbacks in play this week, and the risk of moving away from all of them probably isn't worth it, especially with Lamar Jackson sitting with an $8,000 salary and coming off of a bye against a beatable Rams team that ranks 15th in adjusted pass defense, per numberFire.

In five games against pass defenses ranked between 10th and 24th this season, Jackson has maintained an average of 211.8 yards and 0.8 touchdowns, but he has a strong passing success rate in that split.

On the ground in these games, he is averaging 10.0 carries and 61.4 yards with 0.4 scores per game on a 23.7% red zone rushing share.

The Rams are letting up +1.10 yards per carry over expectation (RYOE, via NextGenStats) this season to quarterbacks. That's the second-highest rate in the NFL.

Others to Consider

Patrick Mahomes ($8,400 vs. Buffalo Bills) - Efficient even in tough matchups, but pure upside bumps him to the second tier for me this week.

Brock Purdy ($8,100 vs. Seattle Seahawks) - Showing upside, and Seattle can give up production (14th vs. the pass).

Justin Fields ($7,900 vs. Detroit Lions) - Wind is up, but rushing upside still exists here.

Running Backs

Bijan Robinson, Atlanta Falcons

FanDuel Salary: $7,100
Matchup: vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Bijan Robinson's role has scaled up in recent weeks, and he has played at least 61.2% of the Falcons' snaps in five straight games with at least a 72.7% snap rate in three of those five, including 75.0% in Week 13.

In Week 13, Robinson had 18 carries and 5 targets for 79 scrimmage yards. The efficiency within this offense is still lacking, yet Robinson has averaged 85.8 scrimmage yards per game in this five-game stretch.

The Buccaneers are a middling running back defense on the full season, so we don't have to avoid them here.

Isiah Pacheco, Kansas City Chiefs

FanDuel Salary: $7,000
Matchup: vs. Buffalo Bills

Isiah Pacheco has played 79.3% and 68.9% of the Chiefs' snaps the past two games without Jerick McKinnon in the lineup.

In those two games, he has averaged 106.0 yards from scrimmage on a per-game line of 16.5 carries and 4.5 targets. Pacheco has also run a route on 62.0% of the drop backs in that span.

He's not exactly a full-time back, and his role will diminish a bit if McKinnon returns, but he's attached to one of the top games of the week.

Update: Pacheco is out, and Clyde Edwards-Helaire and McKinnon will split carries.

Zack Moss, Indianapolis Colts

FanDuel Salary: $6,800
Matchup: at Cincinnati Bengals

Although Zack Moss disappointed as an obvious value play in Week 13, the role was still really good.

He played on 94.1% of the Colts' snaps and had 19 carries and 3 targets but totaled only 57 scrimmage yards. He had eight red zone rushes. The building blocks for a huge game were there.

The matchup this week is drastically easier, too, as the Bengals are 29th in rushing success rate allowed to running backs.

Others to Consider

Christian McCaffrey ($10,500 vs. Seattle Seahawks) - Best role in the league in a top-tier offense.

Joe Mixon ($7,200 vs. Indianapolis Colts) - 70.8% snap rate and 19 carries plus 7 targets in OT with Jake Browning under center.

Jahmyr Gibbs ($6,900 at Chicago Bears) - Bears are allowing league-high receiving output to RBs while limiting rushing; 6 catches for 59 yards against them in the first matchup.

Wide Receivers

Justin Jefferson, Minnesota Vikings

FanDuel Salary: $9,000
Matchup: at Las Vegas Raiders

I'll keep this one a bit straightforward.

Justin Jefferson averaged just shy of 140.0 receiving yards per game in his first four games thanks to outputs of 150, 159, 149, and 85 yards in his full contests.

The Raiders are a beatable matchup, and the quarterback play for the Vikings with Joshua Dobbs is viable enough.

Jefferson should have a target share of 30-plus percent at a very reasonable salary for a player of his caliber.

Chris Olave, New Orleans Saints

FanDuel Salary: $7,600
Matchup: vs. Carolina Panthers

Chris Olave has a 24.5% target share and 46.3% air yards share the past three games without Michael Thomas, and in those games, Olave has averaged 147.4 air yards per game and 109.0 receiving yards per game.

Derek Carr, listed with concussion, rib, and shoulder issues, practiced in a limited fashion on Wednesday and could play. If not, Olave should be fine. Jameis Winston has also targeted Olave on 17 of 47 attempts (36.2%), and Olave also has a 44.8% air yards share from Winston.

The lack of wind here in an indoor game also goes a long way in Olave's favor compared to a lot of other receivers.

Zay Flowers, Baltimore Ravens
Odell Beckham, Baltimore Ravens

Flowers FanDuel Salary: $6,500
Beckham FanDuel Salary: $5,700
Matchup: vs. Los Angeles Rams

In the Ravens' first game without Mark Andrews, Zay Flowers paced the team with 8 targets for just 25 yards. But he scored twice (including a rushing score) and had 2 targets travel at least 10 yards downfield.

His status as the team's top option isn't going anywhere, and this week against the Rams, who are 30th in average depth of target allowed to WRs, he could get some extra looks with juice on them.

Odell Beckham has been injured for most of the season -- but not this week. He's been targeted on 26.1% of his routes, an elite rate (Justin Jefferson's mark is 26.5%, for context).

Rashee Rice, Kansas City Chiefs

FanDuel Salary: $6,300
Matchup: vs. Buffalo Bills

Rashee Rice has become increasingly involved in the Chiefs' offense this season -- particularly in the past two games.

Rice has had single-game target shares of 31.3% and 30.0% the past two games for 107 and 64 yards with 8 catches in each contest.

The Bills are top-three against WRs by yards per route run but also 25th in catch rate over expectation.

Others to Consider

Puka Nacua ($7,600 at Baltimore Ravens) - 7-plus targets in every game this year and should be playing from behind.

Deebo Samuel ($7,500 vs. Seattle Seahawks) - Averaging 5.3 targets but 2.9 carries per game.

Elijah Moore ($6,200 vs. Jacksonville Jaguars) - Joe Flacco gave him 251 air yards last week, most of any player all year.

Parker Washington ($4,100 at Cleveland Browns) - Role far exceeds the salary, but QB downgrade possible and tough matchup.

Tight Ends

Travis Kelce, Kansas City Chiefs

FanDuel Salary: $8,000
Matchup: vs. Buffalo Bills

Travis Kelce's role is really hard to match among all tight ends.

He's second in targets per game (8.5) and first in yards per game (73.9) at the position.

While Buffalo has limited downfield passing to tight ends (2nd in aDOT allowed) but has faced an elevated target-per-route rate (23rd). It's hard to envision Kelce getting phased out in this massive game.

Kyle Pitts, Atlanta Falcons

FanDuel Salary: $5,300
Matchup: vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Kyle Pitts has had a pretty great role this season. No tight ends have more downfield targets (10-plus yards) than Pitts (35), and only Kelce (33) has more than 26.

With that said, Pitts has -55.1 receiving yards over expectation on those downfield looks. That means there is room for growth, though he does have some quarterback concerns.

Tampa Bay is 24th in yards per route run allowed to tight ends.

Others to Consider

George Kittle ($6,600 vs. Seattle Seahawks) - 61.3 yards per game on the year; LA is 27th in yards per route allowed to TEs.

Isaiah Likely ($5,200 vs. Los Angeles Rams) - 40 yards and 6 targets without Mark Andrews last game.

Defenses

Cleveland Browns

FanDuel Salary: $3,800
Matchup: vs. Jacksonville Jaguars

The Browns will be facing either C.J. Beathard or an injured Trevor Lawrence this week, and the Jaguars are also down their left tackle and playmaker Christian Kirk. The potential here is pretty obvious, and the salary is very reasonable for one of the NFL's best defenses.

Others to Consider

New Orleans Saints ($4,300 vs. Carolina Panthers)

Indianapolis Colts ($4,100 at Cincinnati Bengals)

Minnesota Vikings ($3,900 at Las Vegas Raiders)

Cincinnati Bengals ($3,700 vs. Indianapolis Colts)


Be sure to check out all of the Week 14 daily fantasy football contests on FanDuel.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.