Champions League Winner Odds: Will PSG Finally Take Home the Trophy?

Nicholas Vazquez
Nicholas Vazquez@nickvaz
Champions League Winner Odds: Will PSG Finally Take Home the Trophy?

Now that we're down to four teams remaining in the Champions League, the odds have changed dramatically. The two favorites before the last round were Manchester City and Arsenal, and both are now eliminated.

When looking at the Champions League odds on FanDuel Sportsbook, who should we bet on to be the winner?

Here is a look at the odds for the four teams remaining and their odds:

Real Madrid+130
Bayern Munich+260

Champions League Winner Odds

Real Madrid (+130)

After defeating the defending champions and favorites Manchester City on penalty kicks, Real Madrid are now the favorites themselves.

They certainly have the pedigree of a team that can win it. Three players in their squad have won the Champions League five times (Luka Modric, Toni Kroos and Dani Carvajal). Their manager, Carlo Ancelotti, has won it four times, the most of any coach.

Even if they aren't quite as good as some of those teams from the 2010s, this Real Madrid team is no joke. They are leading La Liga by eight points. In terms of underlying numbers, Madrid have the ninth-best expected goal (xG) differential per 90 minutes across Europe's big five leagues, according to FBRef.

The semifinals will be tricky for them -- perhaps more so than even the final. They will face Bayern Munich, a team that could be considered the next best side remaining.

It's hard to bet against Real Madrid, the end boss of this competition. This +130 number is pretty short, but they are deservedly the favorites.

Paris St-Germain (+240)

Chasing their elusive first Champions League trophy, PSG staged a big comeback to beat Barcelona in the quarterfinals. Barca was up 4-2 on aggregate until a red card changed the entire match. After Barca had a man sent off, the Parisians scored three goals and went through to the next round.

Since PSG has won Ligue 1 in 12 of the last 14 seasons, going for the Champions League will be their priority -- especially considering that Kylian Mbappe will likely be leaving the club after this season.

PSG has the best xG differential in France and the 10th-best over Europe's big five leagues. They may not have Neymar and Lionel Messi any longer, but they have a good nucleus of young players as well as more balance in their team.

Having the benefit of avoiding Real Madrid and Bayern Munich in this round, PSG are clear favorites to make the final. They are -230 to advance past Dortmund, so betting on them to win the whole competition at +240 definitely makes sense.

Bayern Munich (+260)

After having their incredible 11-year Bundesliga title run come to an end, Bayern Munich now has only the Champions League to chase.

It's been a funny season for Bayern. They've had some uncharacteristic slip-ups in the league, and they've had to deal with a fantastic Bayer Leverkusen side that has not lost a game in any competition.

Bayern's xG numbers are still elite. They average 1.74 more xG than their opponents on a per-90-minute basis. The next best team in Europe averages just 1.35.

They squeaked through against Arsenal and will now have a tough test against Real Madrid. Manager Thomas Tuchel has won this competition before, but he can't match the history of Madrid. He also has already confirmed that he will be leaving at the end of this season, and you have to wonder how that will affect things for Bayern Munich.

In the semifinal matchup against Real Madrid, Bayern are +144 underdogs to go through. Considering that and with the fact they'll have to win the UCL final against a side that is more than capable of beating them -- whether it is PSG or Dortmund -- the +260 odds are not long enough to tempt me into betting Bayern.

Borussia Dortmund (+800)

Perhaps the wild card of the last four remaining, Dortmund have made the semifinals for the first time since they went all the way to the final in 2013.

Dortmund won a topsy-turvy affair against Atletico Madrid in the previous round to get here. Right now, they are just fifth in the Bundesliga. Their xG differential is also just the fifth-best in Germany.

Dortmund are able to compete with these teams, at the very least. They were in the same group as PSG this fall and were able to get a draw in one of the matches versus Mbappe and company. They also beat Bayern Munich just three weeks ago, 2-0.

It's pretty clear that Dortmund are the worst team left, but in a cup competition, +800 is a pretty long number and could be an intriguing bet. Their odds to get to the final are just +180, compared to Bayern's +144, but Bayern is given a much better chance of winning the tournament.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.