Best Prop Bets for The Open Championship: First-Round Leader, 3-Balls, and Finishes

We're less than 24 hours from the first tee times for this year's Open Championship at Royal Portrush.

It's time to finalize those betting cards.

Because it's later in the week, we have the full complement of markets available from first-round leaders to 3-balls and more. Lucky for us, I do think there's some good value to be found there, along with some other spots.

On top of that, FanDuel customers get a 30% Profit Boost Token to use on a “Top 5 Finish (incl. ties), “Top 10 Finish (incl. ties)” and/or “Top 20 Finish (incl. ties)” wager for The Open. See full terms and conditions.

Which bets stand out in FanDuel Sportsbook's golf betting odds in the final run-up to Portrush? Let's check it out.

Open Championship Prop Betting Picks

Tommy Fleetwood First-Round Leader (+4500)

Am I a coward for not wanting to bet Tommy Fleetwood outright?

Maybe.

Do I sleep better at night knowing my fate won't come down to Fleetwood closing the door on Sunday?

Very much so.

There's no debating the fact that Fleetwood is one of the best golfers in the world. Fleetwood is fifth in Data Golf's world rankings, trailing just the four favorites to win this week. He has 8 top-5 finishes (including ties) in his past 25 events, including a pair of runner-ups. He also has 7 career top-10 finishes in majors.

It's just really hard to bet him to win at +2600 after watching his anguish in losing a late lead at The Travelers in June.

Fleetwood's a great player who -- I think -- will eventually win a major. So I can't hate on anyone for betting him to win this week. But in the first-round leader market, I don't have to sweat the same baggage that comes with the outright.

Fleetwood played great in 2019 at Royal Portrush, beating everyone but Shane Lowry by two strokes. With his combination of elite irons, top-notch form, and quality history on links courses, I want exposure of some kind. This market stands out as my favorite route for getting it.

Daniel Berger First-Round 3-Ball (+185)

After a red-hot spring, Daniel Berger hasn't finished better than 33rd since the Truist in May. I've been on him a good number of times in that stretch, so I should want to abandon ship.

The data keeps pulling me back in.

Specifically, it's Berger's recent ball-striking that tickles my fancy. He gained 2.35 strokes per round on approach last week at the Genesis Scottish Open, according to Data Golf's field-adjusted numbers, his third straight week at +0.90 or higher. He just gave it all away with the short game.

But short-game numbers take longer to stabilize than ball-striking, so I'm more willing to forgive small-sample struggles there. Those have been the catalyst for Berger's downturn, so it's possible he's not fully toast yet.

I look at a metric that I call Relevant Strokes Gained, which looks at each golfer's past 30 rounds off the tee, 40 rounds approach, and 50 round around the green and putting. This accounts for those aforementioned stabilization rates to see who enters with decent form.

Here's how Berger measures up against his two playing partners in this 3-ball, Keegan Bradley and Sungjae Im.

There are plenty of flaws with this approach, and Bradley's also in quality form. I just like this as a way to bet Berger and give myself increased wiggle room should the short-game woes continue.

Russell Henley to Finish Top 10 Including Ties (+380)

Somebody out there is Hot for Henley because Russell Henley was +430 in this market yesterday.

Even with the shortening, I still think he's a quality value here.

Entering the week, Henley ranks:

• 6th in Data Golf's World Rankings
• 5th in their true strokes gained metric across the past 6 months
• 5th in relevant strokes gained

He's a good golfer with top-end recent finishes and a good history in majors. Hard to hate on that.

Henley's past three events -- all signature events or majors -- have resulted in finishes of 5th, 10th, and 2nd. The 10th came at the US Open despite some big struggles off the tee.

Last year in The Open Championship, Henley finished fifth, one of two top-10 finishes for him in majors that year. Since his form started to ascend in 2023, Henley has cashed in this market in 4 of 11 majors, a rate of 36.4%, above his implied odds of 20.8%.

Typically, I prefer the finishing markets that include dead heats. But with FanDuel's aforementioned 30% Profit Boost on markets like this, you're actually getting him at better odds (+494) than his top-10 odds with dead heats (+450). So, I'll take the increased flexibility.

I don't hate the idea of a Henley outright at +6500. But we have a lot of routes to cashing this one, and the data behind Henley says he's more than capable of rewarding our faith.

Which golfers stand out to you at Portrush? Check out FanDuel Sportsbook's latest golf betting odds to see the full menu of options.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.

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