Best NASCAR Cup Series Bets and Predictions for the Bass Pro Shops Night Race at Bristol

Bristol's always fun.

Making it the cutoff race for the first round of the playoffs? Even better.

Adding in unknowns about how tires will wear?

We're cookin' with gas, baby.

In an attempt to recreate a bizarre, entertaining race from the spring of 2024, Goodyear is bringing a softer right-side tire for Saturday night's Bass Pro Shops Night Race. We've expected chaos due to tires since that race and haven't gotten what we asked for, so it's hard to tell if this will have the intended effect. But it certainly ups the intrigue.

Because there are so many unknowns, I'm more inclined to take stabs at longshots in FanDuel Sportsbook's NASCAR betting odds. A heavy-wear race would benefit some while a more neutral race would benefit others. And we won't know which way the cookie will crumble until partway through the opening stage Saturday.

Thus, I want to stick with the longshots, lowering the amount of financial exposure to this race and limiting the downsides for me should the racing be way different than expected.

Which bets stand out with this approach in mind? Let's start with my model's pre-practice sims, and then we can dig into some bets.

NASCAR Predictions for Bristol

NASCAR Betting Picks for Bristol

Brad Keselowski to Win (+3000)

Brad Keselowski finished third in that aforementioned chaotic tire race, so his odds would get a boost if you guaranteed we'd see falloff. I think he's a value either way.

Keselowski had one of the best cars in the field at Iowa, one of the more recent short tracks on the schedule. He had a fourth-place average running position in that one. That also wasn't a track with crazy tire falloff, boosting Keselowski's appeal should the tires not throw things into a tizzy.

Keselowski is a three-time Bristol winner, and some of his success has come since his switch to RFK. In addition to that podium last spring, he led 109 laps in the 2022 playoff race. With Keselowski's form on the ascent, I wouldn't be shocked to see him play spoiler despite not being in the playoff field.

Carson Hocevar to Finish Top 5 (+700)

One of Carson Hocevar's first "statement" races came at Bristol, so it seems to suit his skills. I could see him making noise again.

That big race for Hocevar came in 2023. While driving on a fill-in basis for Legacy Motor Club, he finished 11th, one of the better runs that car had all year. He was fourth in the Craftsman Truck Series race at the track earlier that weekend.

Hocevar seems to run well on concrete. He won at Nashville in the Truck Series in 2023 and was runner-up there in the Cup Series this year. He also showed he can handle tire-wear races with decent runs in both Richmond and Darlington recently.

I think Hocevar has enough juice where you can bet him to win at +4500. In this top-five market, I've got him at 16.1%, easily clear of his 12.5% implied odds.

Austin Cindric to Finish Top 5 (+1000)

Bristol has never been Austin Cindric's best track at any level, which is why I can't quite recommend him to win at +8000 even though my model shows value. I want exposure somewhere, though, and I'm plenty above market here, as well.

Cindric seemed to steadily improve at this track throughout his Xfinity Series career, as he did on all ovals. He went from finishing outside the top 10 initially to finishing top-five in three of his final four races, including a runner-up in 2021. He podiumed in 2020, as well.

We've seen a similar pattern in Cup. His past two races are his two best finishes, though both of those were also in the teens.

You could have said the same about Cindric entering Richmond a couple weeks ago. Entering this fall's race, his best career finish was 12th, and that was his lone finish better than 20th. Yet, thanks to rapidly improving form, Cindric finished fifth with an eighth-place average running position.

It seems to me like Cindric is following the same pattern he showed in Xfinity: he improves every year, and then things eventually click. We're still getting him at a long price, so I want to buy in to see if the climb continues.

Justin Haley to Finish Top 10 (+850)

Things were so bad for Justin Haley at one point this year that Spire Motorsports considered replacing him mid-season, according to The Athletic's Jordan Bianchi. He's starting to run better, though, and the tide turned just in time for one of Haley's better tracks.

Bristol was one of the few bright spots for Haley earlier in the year. He had a seventh-place average running position here in the spring, though he ultimately finished 13th. He took an aggressive approach during the wild tire race in 2024, running faster than others, knowing it would kill his tires more quickly. It worked, though, as he finished 17th, much better than you'd have expected out of Rick Ware Racing. Haley was 12th here in 2022.

Haley's turnaround started in Iowa, where he qualified 10th and had a 14th-place average running position. He also qualified 13th in Darlington, though the race didn't go as well there. Overall, there have been signs of life, which we didn't see earlier.

Given Haley's recent success at this track -- both with and without tire wear -- I think he's worth a swipe given the long odds in a forgiving market.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author’s advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.