Best NASCAR Cup Series Bets and Predictions for the EchoPark Automotive 400 at Dover

Typically, I don't like betting a pair of favorites to win a race.

Because their odds are shorter, my bet size increases. And because only one of them can win, I'm guaranteed to lose at least one of those wagers. So, I prefer a mix where if I bet a favorite, the other outrights -- if I have any -- come with longer odds and, thus, lower bet sizes.

I'm willing to make an exception this week.

My model is pretty top-heavy for the AutoTrader EchoPark Automotive 400 at Dover with four drivers holding double-digit win odds and two drivers above 15%.

Both of those drivers are values in FanDuel Sportsbook's NASCAR betting odds, and it's not slim value, either. So we'll be taking a slightly different approach this week.

This does limit my ability to add outrights later in the week, so there's risk and downside. It's worthwhile in my eyes, though. So let's dig into the sims, and then we can lay out which two favorites I like for Dover.

NASCAR Predictions for Dover

NASCAR Betting Picks for Dover

Denny Hamlin to Win (+500)

If the Cup Series is on concrete, I want Denny Hamlin on my betslip. Luckily, the market obliged here.

During the Next-Gen era, the Cup Series has run 12 races at Dover, Bristol, or Nashville, the three concrete tracks on the schedule. Here are Hamlin's finishes and average running positions in those races.

That's three wins, six podiums, and nine consecutive top-five average running positions.

Hot dang.

We have to be vigilant about declining form with Hamlin, who is in his age-44 season (NASCAR drivers tend to peak at age 39, according to research from David Smith). But Hamlin already has three wins this year at three very different tracks. I'm comfortable with the model putting him at 21.1%, which makes him a clear value at 16.7% implied odds.

William Byron to Win (+850)

Although William Byron has never won Dover, he has shown recently that he has that upside. I think he'll wind up in victory lane soon.

The big coming-out party for Byron was in 2023. There, he led 193 of 400 laps before ultimately finishing fourth. He followed that up by qualifying third last year, finishing second in the opening stage and leading 36 laps before getting caught up in a crash late.

Byron often goes through lulls during the summer months as his team gears up for the playoffs, but that hasn't happened this year. He was runner-up in Darlington and Charlotte, had a fifth-place average running position in Nashville, and was sixth in Bristol. With his team leading the regular season points, they're still trying to maximize this stretch run.

That all leads to my having Byron at 16.4% to win, way up from 10.5% implied. If I could place just one outright, it'd be on Byron due to the massive gap presented there. But for this one week, we'll take a "Why not both?" approach instead.

Noah Gragson to Finish Top 10 (+1100)

Noah Gragson tends to run best at high-banked tracks, and Dover firmly checks that box.

In his Xfinity Series days, Bristol was the better stop for Gragson. He won there in 2020 and 2022 while his best finish in Dover was fourth.

But last year, Gragson had arguably his best race of the year in Dover. He qualified fifth, stayed up front all day, and finished sixth. It was his best finish on a non-drafting track all season.

Gragson hasn't had the best debut season with Front Row Motorsports, logging just three top-10s so far. One of those top-10s was in Charlotte, though, which was recent and has that high banking. It also shows he should have the speed in the car once he gets to the right track type.

I've got Gragson way above market as he's 18.5% for a top-10 for me. His current odds are a great payout, given we saw him achieve that feat just last year.

Zane Smith to Finish Top 10 (+1400)

Gragson's teammate, Zane Smith, has had a smoother transition back to Front Row with consistent pace across various track types. That -- to me -- makes him the best value on the board for a unique track.

Smith has had speed at tracks that bear at least some resemblance to Dover. He finished 13th in Nashville on the concrete. He also was 12th in Darlington, which has overlaps with Dover as the tire falloff forces you to search for new grooves throughout a run, something you see on concrete as rubber builds up on the track.

Although Michigan is not similar to Dover, he finished seventh there, showing that the car has giddy-up, which does still matter, even at a smaller track.

I'm a believer in Smith's talent, and some of that is starting to shine through this year. It's possible my belief has led to my model's inflated expectations -- he's 21.8% for a top-10 for me -- but I very much believe the market is underselling his skills.

New to FanDuel Sportsbook? You’ll receive $150 in Bonus Bets if your first $5+ bet wins! See here for full terms and conditions. Learn about today’s other offers at FanDuel Sportsbook Promos.

Which drivers stand out to you for Sunday's race? Check out FanDuel Sportsbook's latest NASCAR betting odds to see the full menu of options.

Sign up for FanDuel Sportsbook and FanDuel Daily Fantasy today!

The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author’s advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.