American League MVP Odds: Can Anyone Beat Shohei Ohtani?

We're well into the MLB season at this point, and things are starting to take shape, including the betting odds for the major awards.

Let's look at the American League MVP odds via FanDuel Sportsbook and break down four of the top candidates.

Right now, there is a clear favorite to take home the award, and the question is -- will anyone be able to prevent him from winning it?

Shohei Ohtani, SP/OF, Los Angeles Angels

It's not normal for a player to be an overwhelming favorite for MVP this early in the season. Of course, when talking about Shohei Ohtani, not many things are normal.

Ohtani took home the award in 2021. That season, he posted a .393 weighted on-base average (wOBA) and a 152 weighted runs created plus (wRC+). He's got similar numbers this season, as his wOBA is .392 and his wRC+ is 153. These numbers currently rank fourth and fifth, respectively, among qualified AL hitters.

As we all know, hitting is only half of what Ohtani brings to the table. He also boasts the best strikeout rate among AL starters. His fielding independent pitching (FIP) is worse than what he did in 2021, but his 3.47 expected fielding independent pitching (xFIP) is actually better than what it was that season (3.55).

Ohtani's Wins Above Replacement (WAR), per FanGraphs, in 2021 was a total of 8.0 -- 5.0 as a hitter and 3.0 as a pitcher. Last season, it was 3.8 as a hitter and 5.6 as a hitter, but someone was able to beat him out for the MVP. So far, Ohtani has accumulated 3.3 total WAR in 2023. As long as one side of his game doesn't fall off, he's likely to lead the AL in WAR, something he didn't do last season.

It will be helpful if the Los Angeles Angels remain in the playoff race down the stretch, but even if LA doesn't do that, Ohtani has a great chance to win the MVP award as long as he can stay healthy.

Aaron Judge, OF, New York Yankees

The player who led the AL in WAR and won the MVP ahead of Ohtani last season was Aaron Judge. He's in the mix again this season, but there are a few factors that make it tough for him to win again.

Judge is currently on the Injured List for the second time this season. This obviously makes it unlikely that he'll come anywhere close to his 62 home runs last season. It also greatly hurts his chances of beating Ohtani in WAR again.

It's a shame Judge has had to deal with injuries -- a healthy Judge would have made this race a lot closer than it currently looks. His .383 isolated slugging percentage (ISO) is currently the best clip of his career. He leads the AL in wOBA (.441), and his .476 expected wOBA (xwOBA) is even better than his mark from last season.

As long as Ohtani stays healthy, the case for Judge making this a race would likely be based on narrative. It's clear how much the New York Yankees miss Judge when he's not in the lineup, and that could get in voters' heads. Sticking with the narrative theme, if Judge comes up down the stretch in headline-grabbing moments, it could help his case.

Yordan Alvarez, OF, Houston Astros

Yordan Alvarez might be the second-best power hitter in baseball today, behind only Judge. He's now the most dangerous hitter in the Houston Astros' lineup, something most people would not have thought possible when he first made his debut in a stacked lineup in 2019.

Alvarez has a career .296 ISO, and his .312 ISO this season is his best since his rookie year. He trails only Judge in wOBA among AL hitters.

While Alvarez has been impressive all season, it would be tough to justify voting for him at the moment. Judge has better numbers as a pure hitter, and Ohtani is adding value to his team on multiple fronts. Alvarez also is not a strong defensive player -- so much so that he's forced to be a designated hitter for a majority of games. Plus, Alvarez is currently on the shelf due to an oblique injury.

The +2000 odds might look enticing, but the odds are that long for a reason.

Wander Franco, SS, Tampa Bay Rays

The former top prospect in all of baseball, Wander Franco is putting all of his tools together this season. His breakout year puts him firmly in the dark horse category.

Wander doesn't have the gaudy power numbers that Judge or Alvarez do, but he is doing things that they are not. He has 22 stolen bases this season, the second-most in the AL. He's also been an elite defensive player, as his defensive value is the second-highest in the AL, according to FanGraphs.

With the Tampa Bay Rays being the best team in the majors, the voters may look to give credit to someone on the Rays. That someone could be Franco, who actually has the best WAR for position players in the AL if you don't add in Ohtani's pitching WAR.

It would take a big change to get Franco among the favorites. He's talented enough to at least get people talking and is a worthy candidate, but like everyone else in the AL this season, Franco likely needs an Ohtani injury to win the MVP in 2023.

The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.