4 Home Run Prop Best Bets for Friday 7/12/24
Player props can be useful in a variety of ways -- from taking advantage of them straight up to measuring a player's potential to produce in daily fantasy baseball on FanDuel.
Here, we're going to focus on the former, specifically home run props.
Utilizing our home run projections -- which are powered by numberFire -- as the guiding light for finding value, here are some MLB home run props bets that look appealing via the MLB odds at FanDuel Sportsbook.
Please note that betting lines and projections may change throughout the day after this article is published. Also, the weather may be an issue in some locations.
Home Run Prop Best Bets
Pete Alonso to Hit a Home Run (+320)
Brandon Nimmo to Hit a Home Run (+480)
Pete Alonso and Brandon Nimmo draw a matchup with the Colorado Rockies and Tanner Gordon, who let up a pair of dingers and a 50.0% hard-hit rate in his first start at the MLB level last time out.
The lefty, Nimmo, has the platoon split here, and both hitters have a barrel rate around 8.0% (7.8% for Nimmo and 8.0% for Alonso).
numberFire's model projects Alonso for 0.33 homers and Nimmo for 0.31 -- odds that suggest a historical HR probability of 25.2% for Alonso and 23.2% for Nimmo.
Corey Seager to Hit a Home Run (+400)
Corey Seager owns a hefty 11.3% barrel rate and has regression coming: his slugging percentage (SLG) is .475, but his xSLG is .564.
Seager's homer probability makes him a slight value at these +400 odds in a plus-homer park for lefties (Minute Maid Park).
Gunnar Henderson to Hit a Home Run (+430)
numberFire's model loves Gunnar Henderson to go deep tonight (0.46 projected homers).
Gerrit Cole has let up a 56.0% fly-ball rate through 79 batters faced -- as well as a 46.0% hard-hit rate.
Henderson leads the Baltimore Orioles in barrel rate (8.8%) and SLG (.588) and owns a handedness advantage.
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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.