4 Best NFL Bets and Predictions for Week 4

When betting the NFL, accounting for injuries is paramount.

That goes well beyond just quarterbacks, too. Having a key tackle or cornerback out can make a big enough impact to turn a great bet into a loser. If we're not being vigilant, we can make dumb mistakes.

Still, there are some teams that continue to produce even when their personnel isn't 100%. For me, one of those battle-tested teams is a value in Week 4.

Let's start there, laying out a side I like in FanDuel Sportsbook's NFL betting odds, and then we can discuss other spreads and totals I think are good values.

Best NFL Week 4 Spread and Total Bets

Eagles at Buccaneers

Buccaneers +3.5 (-115)

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers won't have Mike Evans, Luke Goedeke, and Cody Mauch as they face the defending Super Bowl champions. Grim!

But no matter the personnel, Baker Mayfield has gotten the job done the past two years. I like the Bucs getting 3.5 at home against the Philadelphia Eagles.

Last year, the Bucs played Weeks 8, 9, and 10 with both Evans and Chris Godwin sidelined. Mayfield still averaged 0.16 Passing Net Expected Points (NEP, numberFire's EPA metric) in those three games, only a bit below his season-long mark of 0.23. His top pass-catchers there were Cade Otton, Rachaad White, and Sterling Shepard as Jalen McMillan got hurt, as well.

This time, it sounds like Mayfield will have Godwin and stud left tackle Tristan Wirfs in addition to the upgrades via Emeka Egbuka and Bucky Irving. Even with the injuries, it's hard to ding the Bucs too aggressively.

As a result, I have them as just 0.8-point underdogs in my model's spread and total predictions. That makes them a good value on the moneyline, as well, at +158, but getting more than a field goal at home is tough to pass up.

Panthers at Patriots

Panthers +5.5 (-110)

Despite an embarrassing performance in Week 1, the Carolina Panthers' offense hasn't been abysmal this year. Thus, I don't think they should be catching 5.5 against a non-elite New England Patriots team.

After adjusting for schedule, the Panthers are just a bit below average on early downs both on the ground and through the air. They've also been frisky on late downs with a 47.7% Success Rate, a number that increases to 49.2% once you adjust for opposition. That's fully acceptable.

The defense is in a very similar boat: it's fine.

Meanwhile, the Patriots have faced three largely poor offenses and still let up a healthy amount of production, especially through the air. I think Bryce Young and company should be able to move the ball even if they do fall behind.

My model views the Patriots as the better team and would have them favored on a neutral field. When you put this in Foxboro, I get a spread of 2.2 points. That gives me plenty of value at 5.5 and -- similar to the Bucs -- makes the moneyline enticing, as well.

Browns at Lions

Total Over 44.5 (-105)

I don't care how good the Cleveland Browns' defense has looked. A total this low for a Detroit Lions offense playing at home and indoors is going to be a value for me.

The Lions have played 21 games at home since the start of 2023 (when they reached their current juggernaut level). Those games have featured an average of 56.3 points per game with 16 of them going over 44.5. They've had 65 of more points a whopping 8 times in that span.

The Browns' defense changes that math because they just held the Green Bay Packers firmly in check last week. Still, you have been able to throw on them a bit as the Baltimore Ravens were efficient through the air in Week 2, the Browns' lone road game so far. While we can view the Browns as good, I don't want to go so far as to view them as being superhuman just yet.

My model's way off on this total, putting it in the 50s. Typically, when you disagree with the market that much, you're the one who's wrong. But with this game being indoors and featuring one of the best offenses in football, I also think the market is too low, so I'm willing to back the over.

Saints at Bills

Total Over 48.5 (-105)

Both of these defenses have had their issues, one offense is nutso, and the other operates at a fast clip. That's a good recipe for points.

Through three games, quarterbacks facing the New Orleans Saints have averaged 0.30 Passing NEP per drop back. That's an MVP-type number; Lamar Jackson led the league at 0.41 last year.

In other words, the Buffalo Bills should be able to name their score here, especially on extra rest while the Saints play their second straight road game on opposite ends of the country.

The Saints do provide some juice themselves, though. That's mostly via their pace; they have the league's fastest offense through three weeks, according to FanDuel Research's Brandon Gdula. That ups the play volume for their opponents, and more plays means more points.

The Saints' offense has also exceeded my expectations so far. Granted, my expectations were "worst offense in the league," but they've been largely inoffensive. Teams have been able to move the ball on Buffalo, so I'd expect at least something on their end.

This is another game that my model has up in the 50s, well above market. I just want to keep snagging overs on the Saints, given their combo of pace and poor defense, especially when it's against an offense as absurd as Buffalo's.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.