4 Best NFL Bets and Predictions for Week 1

In Week 1, we root for points.

Across the board, I am showing value on overs in FanDuel Sportsbook's NFL betting odds. This is a new phenomenon for me as the past two years (my only Week 1s with a totals model), my early-week average total (44.4) has actually been below the market (44.9).

It makes me a little uncomfortable. But I do believe in the logic behind having high totals.

First, most NFL teams have something competent at quarterback, moreso (anecdotally) than in previous years.

Second, the altered kickoff rules did seem to boost scoring last year. Including the playoffs, the average total points scored in NFL games increased to 45.9 from 44.8 in 2023. Now, touchbacks have been moved an additional five yards out, which could continue that trend.

So, yeah, it's scary to be high on overs across the board. If the scoring environment is harsher than expected, I'm gonna whiff. But I do think it's right, directionally.

With that in mind, which bets am I willing to lock in now for Week 1? Let's check it out.

NFL Week 1 Betting Picks

Giants at Commanders

Total Over 45.5 (-112)

Of all the spots I'm showing value in the over, this is the one where I feel most comfortable.

The Washington Commanders obviously play a big role there. Their offense cooked last year, and they've since added impact players at both left tackle and wide receiver. The defense also ain't great, which helps.

The New York Giants should be able to pull their own weight, as well. With Russell Wilson at quarterback and the pass-catchers healthy, that's honestly not a bad infrastructure. Especially against this defense, I think they'll be able to score points.

As a result, I've got this total at 51.3 points. Often, when you're that far off in a market as efficient as this one, you're the one who's wrong. I'm willing to take the dive, though, because of the factors outlined above.

Ravens at Bills

Total Over 50.5 Points (-115)

With how efficient these two offenses were last year, it's hard to assign them a low total. Given the minimal amount of turnover for each team on that side of the ball, I think betting the over on a high number is justifiable.

The Baltimore Ravens and Buffalo Bills finished last year ranked first and third, respectively, in numberFire's offensive Net Expected Points (NEP, our in-house EPA metric). My preseason priors have them as the top two teams overall, and they're somewhere between first and third in projected passing and rushing efficiency, as well.

Yes, the Ravens' defense played great down the stretch last year, but defense is tougher to predict. Offense is stickier, and both of these units can blaze it.

That -- combined with just 5 mph winds projected -- is why I have this total at 54.9 points. This bet also checks the entertainment box as it allows us to just root for points rather than sweating out who will win. I'm on board with that.

Cardinals at Saints

Total Over 42.5 (-120)

Betting an over on Josh Allen and Lamar Jackson? Easy sell.

Riding with Spencer Rattler? Probably not so much.

This one requires a bit more nose-plugging, but again, I do think it's the proper side.

The Arizona Cardinals should be able to do the heavy lifting here. Their offense was above average both on the ground and through the air last year, and they've now had an extra offseason to get Kyler Murray and Marvin Harrison Jr. to jell. They should be able to move the ball at will.

As for the New Orleans Saints, things aren't as rosy. Still, they do have quality receivers and a rookie left tackle who looked the part in the preseason. Even if it's bad, it might not be catastrophic.

The hope here is that the Cardinals do damage, limiting the amount we need out of the Saints to push this puppy over. Either way, this total seems like it should be a bit higher.

Dolphins at Colts

Dolphins' Moneyline (-106)

And you thought betting on the Saints' offense was gross.

Welcome to hell, friend.

It is not possible to have worse vibes than the Miami Dolphins entering the season. Their head coach has gone full nihilism, and their star receiver is openly dumping on his teammates.

In a perfect world, I'd be able to ignore this team to see if they're truly as toxic as they seem. But the market has reacted swiftly in downgrading them as I actually have the Dolphins as 3.3-point favorites on the road against the Indianapolis Colts. It is easily my biggest value of the week.

Most of that is because I'm super low on the Colts, given their quarterback situation. But we've also seen this Dolphins offense consistently move the ball whenever Tua Tagovailoa has been healthy, and that's what we've got for Week 1. I'd need a massive "vibes" downgrade in order to catch up to the betting odds here.

If the Dolphins implode, I can jump ship and never look back. As things stand, though, I do think they're worth a shot in the opener, given how harshly the market has reacted to this team's tumultuous preseason.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.