4 Best MLB Bets, Player Props, and Home Run Picks for Saturday 5/17/25

In a given MLB slate, you've got tons of markets to dig through, from totals to home runs and strikeout props.

Which bets stand out for today's games?

Below, I'm going to run through my favorite bets in FanDuel Sportsbook's MLB betting odds. You can get additional insights from our daily MLB player prop projections.

Note: Lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published. All stats come from FanGraphs and Baseball Savant unless noted otherwise.

Today's Best MLB Bets, Player Props, and Home Run Picks

Chicago White Sox at Chicago Cubs

Over 10.0 Runs (-105)

As usual, we'll let the total go with the wind in Wrigleyville. Today, extreme winds straight out to right could replicate Friday's 16-run barnburner in similar conditions.

That's especially true when the two starters in the "Crosstown Classic" might be a bit more vulnerable than they seem. Chicago White Sox righty Sean Burke's skill-interactive ERA (5.45 SIERA) is much higher than his 4.15 ERA, and we'll get to his contact splits in a moment.

Of course, the Chicago Cubs have torched righties for a .752 team OPS this year (6th in MLB), and the Pale Hose's bullpen has the third-highest SIERA in baseball as a unit (4.15). The Cubs' is fifth-highest (4.05 SIERA), too.

Meanwhile, don't let the White Sox's poor team OPS against southpaws (.610) think they'll get blanked by Matt Boyd. Boyd's 42.9% flyball rate is especially susceptible in these conditions.

Two poor bullpens and awesome hitting conditions might make 10.0 runs a steal -- even in a game involving the White Sox.

Pete Crow-Armstrong to Hit a Home Run (+250)

The odds on this Pete Crow-Armstrong home run are low, but it could be just a few pitches before it's green.

PCA has absolutely mashed righties for a .927 OPS, .285 ISO, 50.0% flyball rate, and 35.0% hard-hit rate across 142 plate appearances (PAs). He's been bumped to the leadoff spot for a while, which should merit an extra at-bat in this one.

Burke's SIERA is just the beginning, which is why three different Cubs are shorter than +300 for a bomb. He's let up gargantuan flyball (47.4%) and hard-hit (41.9%) rates that have culminated in 1.66 HR/9 allowed. No bullpen has allowed more homers than the White Sox's (22), either.

With the best contact splits on his team, I'll back Crow-Armstrong among a few options for the home side.

Cleveland Guardians at Cincinnati Reds

Matt McLain to Hit a Home Run (+420)

Matt McLain's lineup spot is priced into this number, so it's still a good deal.

I'm not sure why the Cincinnati Reds are putting one of their most potent hitters in the 9 hole, but McLain can still answer the call when it's his turn. His .619 OPS in the split is significantly less inspiring for a home run than a 47.8% flyball and 41.2% hard-hit rate across 125 PAs.

He's got a perfect split today as a righty opposite Slade Cecconi, who is set to make his season debut for the Cleveland Guardians. Cecconi coughed up a whopping 2.08 HR/9 to right-handed batters last season, and winds blowing out to left field will help a righty-on-righty argument at MLB's most voluminous park for home runs.

McLain's missing at-bat would come against an ambiguous bullpen arm, anyway. I'll back him to make noise out of the Redlegs' final batting slot.

Houston Astros at Texas Rangers

Rangers Moneyline in First 5 Innings (-118)

It's a shame what sports betting has done to me, registering my first thought of Ronel Blanco's gem on Mother's Day as: "I can't wait to fade that guy in his next start."

Here it is.

Blanco posted 11 strikeouts in 8.0 shutout innings against the Reds, but the up-and-down nature of his skillset could flip to the other side of the coin in Arlington. Blanco's walk rate (9.8 BB%) might be a candidate to increase even further if he's not in line for a first sub-10.0% season, and he's allowed 1.28 HR/9 with a hefty flyball rate (49.5%).

I trust Tyler Mahle a bit more. The Texas Rangers' righty lives on groundballs (49.0% rate), and he does a great job limiting hard contact (30.9% rate allowed). Mahle's allowed just 0.37 HR/9, which is why his xERA (3.35) is pretty sporty.

The Houston Astros have baseball's best bullpen by SIERA (2.73), but I'll fade Blanco off the peak of his season as the Rangers look to knot this series at one. DRatings likes Texas to win the full game 61.3% of the time.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.