MLB

3 Strikeout Prop Bets to Target for Tuesday 4/2/24

Riley Thomas
Riley Thomas_riley8
3 Strikeout Prop Bets to Target for Tuesday 4/2/24

The lengthy MLB season offers a wide array of bets via the MLB odds at FanDuel Sportsbook.

Strikeout props are among the popular lines offered. These bets can focus on the over/under of a starting pitcher's strikeout total or alternate lines can be utilized for more intriguing odds.

In this piece, we will dive into the stats to back our favorite strikeout props of the day across the MLB's slate. Which pitchers taking the mound could rack up Ks or which may stumble? We have plenty of tools available that can help us zero in on the top picks, and we'll use stats from numberFire's daily fantasy baseball projections, Baseball Savant, and FanGraphs.

Here are some of the most enticing strikeout props at FanDuel Sportsbook for today's games.

Please note lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published. All MLB odds come from FanDuel Sportsbook.

MLB Strikeout Prop Bets

Cole Irvin Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-148)

Cole Irvin had an underwhelming season in his first year with the Baltimore Orioles in 2023. He started in only 12 of 24 appearances compared to starting in every outing during the 2021 and 2022 seasons.

Part of Irvin's problem has been velocity and a lack of strikeouts. He was in the bottom 29% in strikeout percentage (K%) and had a four seam fastball that topped out around 92 miles per hour (MPH) last season. He's put a ton of effort into increasing his velocity and it showed in the spring with his fastball clocking at 94 MPH. Some pitches even approached 96 MPH. Only four left-handed pitchers threw over 96 MPH in 2023, per ESPN. Clearly, Irvin throwing some serious heat could bring value.

However, I still have a hard time taking Irvin to exceed his strikeout total. Irvin has simply not produced the strikeout numbers his entire career. His 20.2 K% was a career-high last season, and Irvin reached 5 Ks in only 4 of 12 starts in the 2023 season.

Spring training wasn't promising either. Irvin posted a 6.23 earned run average (ERA) over 4 starts and logged only 9 strikeouts in about 17 innings of pitching. Irvin struggled in his last two spring appearances and was quickly pulled.

Tuesday's opponent -- the Kansas City Royals -- have the 13th-worst K%. This is a small sample size. so take it with a grain of salt. Kansas City had the same ranking in the category last season. The Royals have performed well against Irvin's most used pitches, which include a four seam fastball, changeup, and sinker. Kansas City sits in the top half of runs above average for each pitch.

Considering Irvin's struggles with striking out batters and the Royals' exceptional numbers against the ideal pitches, give me the under for the O's fifth starter.

Jesus Luzardo 8+ Strikeouts (+186)

It's time to get bold for the Los Angeles Angels against the Miami Marlins. Yesterday, we found success with Chase Silseth's K prop. I'm looking to target another starter for this series, but this time let's look at a pitcher on the Marlins.

With a horrid 0-5 start to the season, Miami has officially gone through their starting rotation once. That means their ace Jesus Luzardo is due to take the mound tonight. The 26-year-old lefty posted an excellent K% in the 2022 and 2023 seasons with both marks surpassing 28.0%. After ranking in the 77th percentile of chase rate, whiff percentage, and K% last season, Luzardo showed no signs of slowing down in the season-opener.

The Marlins came up short with a 6-5 loss against the Pittsburgh Pirates, but Luzardo did his part by giving up only two hits paired with eight strikeouts in five innings of work. The Angels are a prime opportunity for Luzardo to rack up Ks once again.

Los Angeles has an alarming 30.0 K% (second-worst) thus far. Chances are this stat will fall with the season just starting, but Luzardo could take advantage of the early struggles. The Angels did not fare too well against left-handed pitchers in 2023, finishing with the 12th-worst K% (23.3%).

Luzardo shined in his first start of the 2024 season with eight Ks and a ridiculous 42.1 K%. I'm willing to take the risk on Miami's starter to reach eight strikeouts (+186).

Luis Castillo Under 5.5 Strikeouts (-122)

The Seattle Mariners' top starter earned his third All-Star appearance in the 2023 season. After logging a 3.34 ERA last season, Luis Castillo got off to a brutal start in the season-opener, recording a 7.20 ERA in five innings of work. Castillo also had a concerning 2.50 strikeout-to-walk ratio (SO/W) in his first start.

The Cleveland Guardians had the fourth-fewest runs recorded in 2023, but they have excelled with the sixth-most runs thus far. It's unlikely that Cleveland continues at this rate as the batting order still lacks power. The lineup had the lowest K% in the MLB last season (18.7%), and that has continued so far at 15.5% (second-best).

The Guardians rarely striking out is the polar opposite of their high run production. This does not feel like a fluke. Cleveland has been exceptional in K% since last year. This spells trouble for Castillo's strikeout total.

The Mariners' top starter is running into a lineup that is off to a hot start while maintaining elite plate discipline. Castillo may need to wait until his third outing to start posting impressive punchout totals.


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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.