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3 NFL Best Bets and Predictions for Wild Card Weekend

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3 NFL Best Bets and Predictions for Wild Card Weekend

The NFL postseason starts with a bang. Wild Card Weekend gives us six games from Saturday to Monday, and only one of the clashes has a spread bigger than 4.5 points.

Here are the Wild Card odds for each game as well as the full Wild Card Weekend schedule.

Using FanDuel Sportsbook's NFL betting odds as a guide, let's dive into the best Wild Card bets.

Wild Card Predictions and Best Bets

Green Bay Packers at Chicago Bears

Packers Moneyline (-110)

The Chicago Bears won two more games than the Green Bay Packers, beat Green Bay not that long ago and and are playing at home -- yet the Packers are a slim favorite.

While that may seem a little odd, there are reasons to believe Green Bay should be an even bigger favorite.

Moneyline

Green Bay Packers
Jan 11 1:01am UTCMore odds in Sportsbook

The Packers landed the 7 seed after a 9-7-1 regular season, but the seed and record mask how good this team rates out once you pop the hood. By ESPN's FPI metric, the Packers are the fourth-best team in this year's playoffs with a rating of +3.7. That's well above Chicago's clip of +0.6, which slots in a blah 12th among playoff teams.

Green Bay matches up pretty well against the Bears on both sides of the ball.

The Packers' offense ranks fourth-best by our schedule-adjusted numbers and should have a meaningful edge over a Chicago defense we rank just 21st.

Defensively, the Packers have been weakened by injuries, but Green Bay has been good against the run -- 12th-best by our metrics -- and the run game is the clear strength of the Bears' offense (fourth-best rushing attack).

In Chicago's 22-16 over Green Bay in late December, the Bears needed a miracle late-game rally to force overtime and gave up 384 yards to a Packers offense that lost Jordan Love to injury in the second quarter.

Buffalo Bills at Jacksonville Jaguars

Under 52.5 Points (-115)

With how the Jacksonville Jaguars' offense is playing and with Josh Allen on the other side, it's scary to take the under.

I think it's the right call.

Total Match Points

Under
Jan 11 6:01pm UTCMore odds in Sportsbook

As good as these offenses have been, these two defenses are just as stout.

Jacksonville ranks fourth in overall defense, including ninth against the run and fourth against the pass, per our schedule-adjusted numbers. The Buffalo Bills' defense checks in 13th overall -- seventh against the pass but 31st versus the run.

I'd be lying if I said I wasn't concerned about Buffalo's run D. But for this under, I think the more important run defense is Jacksonville's.

The Jaguars' run defense is going to be vital this week as the Bills -- spearheaded by a strong offensive line and rushing leader James Cook -- own the league's top rushing attack. The Jags' D has held up against elite runners before, holding Jonathan Taylor to a combined 144 rushing yards on 42 total carries over two games (3.4 yards per carry).

As good as Buffalo's offense can be at times, they struggled against top-notch defenses this year. In two games against top-five defenses, Buffalo averaged just 19.5 points.

These offenses have the firepower to make this under recommendation look silly. With that said, the defenses can hold their own, and the under is the side I want to be on.

Houston Texans at Pittsburgh Steelers

Steelers Under 17.5 Total Points (-118)

By FPI, the Pittsburgh Steelers are the second-worst team in this year's postseason, and I think it'll be another quick exit for them. The Houston Texans are just a much better squad.

I was tempted to write up Texans -3.5, but instead, I'm opting for the under on Pittsburgh's team total.

PIT Steelers Total Points

Under
Jan 13 1:17am UTCMore odds in Sportsbook

Houston's defense is incredible. The Texans rank second in overall D by our metrics -- first against the pass and 14th versus the run.

That run defense is a beacon of hope for a Steelers offense that ranks eighth in rushing, but I don't see that being enough to push Pittsburgh over 17.5 points. At some point, Aaron Rodgers and company will have to make plays through the air, and that's going to be really hard to do against this Houston D.

The Texans' defense has been especially stingy away from home. Over their last four road games, they've let up an average of 13.7 points per game, and three of those matchups came against Patrick Mahomes, Justin Herbert and pre-injury Daniel Jones.

In five outings against top-10 defenses this campaign, Pittsburgh averaged 15.4 points per game. I think we'll see a similar type of outing from them on Monday night against an elite Houston defense.


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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.

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