3 NBA Star Player Prop Bets for Monday 1/29/24

Player props are a fun way to get involved with the NBA each night, especially when it comes to the game's elite players.

That's what we'll focus on here -- prop bets for the NBA's best players via FanDuel Sportsbook's NBA Star Player Props.

Using data -- including numberFire's daily basketball projections -- as a guide, here are some NBA player prop bets that look appealing via the NBA odds at FanDuel Sportsbook.

Please note lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published.

NBA Prop Picks

Jalen Brunson Over 31.5 Points (-106)

For the first time this season, Julius Randle (shoulder) is out for the New York Knicks, so let's target Jalen Brunson to have a big night.

On the season, Brunson is averaging 26.6 points per game. But Brunson has seen an increased scoring role as of late, particularly since the Knicks traded RJ Barrett and Immanuel Quickley to acquire OG Anunoby.

Since Anunoby joined the Knicks at the beginning of January, Brunson is averaging 28.6 points per contest. He has exceeded 31.5 points in three of his last five games and has scored at least 30 points in eight of his last 11 games.

With Randle now out, the Knicks have lost their second-leading scorer (24.0 points per game), so we should expect Brunson to take over in tonight's matchup against the Charlotte Hornets.

If we look at the same split since Anunoby joined New York's lineup, we can see that Brunson is averaging 32.1 points per 36 minutes when Randle is off the court. Brunson plays 35.4 minutes per game, and his court time could increase without Randle. Plus, his usage shoots from 29.7% to 34.8% with Randle on the bench.

Beyond the stats that prove Brunson is a big-time scorer without Randle, this matchup is quite intriguing, too. Charlotte suffers with the worst defensive rating in the league, and they give up the fifth-most points to guards per 36 minutes.

The Hornets surrender the second-most three-point makes (3PM) and ninth-most free throw attempts (FTA) to guards per 36 minutes, which is where Brunson nets a combined 50.8% of his points.

Brunson makes a killing off of pick-and-rolls, scoring 11.8 points per game in this scenario alone (third-most in the NBA). The Hornets, meanwhile, let up the eighth-most points per possession to ball handlers off the pick-and-roll.

This is a super smooth matchup for Brunson. Although Charlotte's shortcomings could indicate the possibility of blowout-based minute restrictions for Knicks starters, this is New York's first game without both of their starting bigs (Randle and Mitchell Robinson), so the playing field could be evened a bit more tonight.

Brunson played in only two games without Randle last season, but he averaged 37.5 points per night in that small sample.

Kawhi Leonard Over 6.5 Rebounds (+112)

Since late November, Kawhi Leonard has eclipsed 6.5 rebounds in 59.3% of his games (16 out of 27), which is well above the 47.17% implied probability here at +112.

But beyond the value, I'm interested in how Leonard could fare in tonight's meeting between the Los Angeles Clippers and Cleveland Cavaliers, especially with a key Clipper out of the lineup.

The Cavs have some big players and rebounders on their team, namely Jarrett Allen, but they've still managed to surrender the third-most rebounds to small forwards per game.

Cleveland is also contesting rebounds at the seventh-lowest rate, so at the very least, the Cavs look to be a decent enough opponent as Leonard's board numbers are concerned.

Ivica Zubac (calf) has been out for the Clippers and will remain out of the lineup tonight. In six games without Zubac, Leonard is averaging 7.3 rebounds per game. Dating back to last season, Leonard has surpassed 6.5 rebounds in six of his last 10 games without Zubac. And in two of those games, Leonard grabbed six boards, meaning he is consistently either clearing or nearing the over on this prop.

Leonard leads all Clippers in adjusted rebound chance percentage. And if we take Zubac out of contention, then Leonard ranks second on the team in total rebound chances per game. Add in a 2.0-point spread that should keep Leonard on the court for plenty of time tonight, and the plus odds on this prop are intriguing.

Zion Williamson Over 4.5 Rebounds (-140)

I'll side with another rebounding prop, and though the odds here aren't thrilling, the value is good. Zion Williamson has grabbed over 4.5 boards in 23 of his 37 games this season, which means the 62.2% hit rate on the over at this line is higher than the 58.33% implied probability at -142.

Williamson is averaging 5.5 rebounds per game this season and has a great matchup on deck against the Boston Celtics.

The Celtics surrender the sixth-most offensive rebounds and the 12th-most rebounds overall. Williamson is a great candidate to get his own rebound, averaging the second-most offensive boards and putback opportunities on the New Orleans Pelicans. Boston can get beat here, so I expect Zion to see many rebounding opportunities tonight, especially during the times when he's not sharing the court with Jonas Valanciunas.

Boston runs with a pretty small lineup as it is, but the injury report shows us that there could be a major lack of depth at the center position. Backup center Luke Kornet will be out for the Celtics, while Al Horford and Kristaps Porzingis are both questionable to suit up.

If one of either Horford or Porzingis is forced the join Kornet on the bench, we will see Boston run with a small-ball unit for some of this game. Williamson sees the second-most rebound chances on the Pelicans and is deferring the fewest rebounds among starters, so I'd be surprised if he doesn't eclipse 4.5 rebounds in this one. numberFire is projecting Williamson to record 6.2 rebounds while operating under the assumption that both Porzingis and Horford will play.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.