3 MLB FanDuel Value Plays for Wednesday 5/8/24

Aidan Cotter
Aidan CotterAidanCotterFD
3 MLB FanDuel Value Plays for Wednesday 5/8/24

Finding low-salary production is one way to get a leg up on the competition in MLB DFS.

Here are some value plays to target on FanDuel for today's main slate.

Advanced statistics courtesy of FanGraphs. Betting lines via the MLB odds at FanDuel Sportsbook. Betting odds as well as our projections -- which are powered by numberFire -- may change after this article is published.

MLB DFS Value Plays

Chris Paddack, P, Twins ($7,800)

Chris Paddack is a roller coaster.

He kicked off the season with a pair of so-so starts, notching 12 and 23 FanDuel points.

Then, he was pounded for 12 hits and 9 runs across 5.1 innings. The righty finished with -5 FanDuel points in that one.

But he bounced back with a 10-K gem the next time out, notching 61 FanDuel points. Paddack followed that up with another middling performance before pitching six scoreless innings and netting 46 FanDuel points his last time out.

Roller. Coaster.

But I'm back in line for tonight's home bout with the Seattle Mariners. Seattle is averaging just 3.75 runs per game this season, and they boast the second-highest K rate against right-handed pitchers (25.8%). They're a respectable 14th in wOBA against righties (.319), but they also start seven righties.

That bodes well for Paddack. He has a 1.12 WHIP and 3.79 xFIP against right-handed hitters, surrendering a .314 wOBA with a 25% K rate.

Paddack's strikeout prop is set at 5.5 on FanDuel Sportsbook -- a line he's gone over in two of three home starts this season.

We project Paddock for 28.5 FanDuel points, making him our second-best point-per-dollar value among pitchers (3.65 FanDuel points per $1,000).

Yandy Diaz, 1B, Rays ($3,000)

Tampa Bay Rays first baseman Yandy Diaz has struggled to replicate last season's career year, but he's been trending up with multiple hits in three of his last five games. With the Rays sporting the slate's second-highest implied total (5.01), Diaz is in a nice spot to outperform his salary against the Chicago White Sox.

Sure, it's been a rough start for Tampa's leadoff man. He's averaging a mere 7.3 FanDuel points per game and hasn't homered since Opening Day.

But Diaz has underperformed relative to his xBA (.228 to .247), xSLG (.290 to .321), and xwOBA (.265 to .286). Granted, those still aren't great marks, but he's cut his called-plus-swinging-strike rate and improved his out-of-zone and in-zone contact rates from last season. He's still in the 81st percentile for average exit velocity and the 86th for hard-hit rate, so there's reason to be optimistic here.

He's struggled a bit with righties this year but is coming off a 2023 campaign that saw him run a .384 wOBA and .881 OPS in that split. Even with this season's struggles, Diaz should be able to take advantage of a plus matchup.

Chris Flexen is the definition of a plus matchup. The righty has an abysmal 5.29 SIERA through 29.2 innings, while his 13.6% K and 9.6% BB rates leave a lot to be desired. Flexen has picked it up a bit after a brutal first three starts, but we can't ignore the 19 hits and 13 runs he gave up over the first 13.1 innings of the season -- not when he's coming off a 6.86 ERA in 2023.

The Rays have quietly averaged 6.6 runs per game during this five-game win streak, and their offense projects well tonight. Diaz should be able to take advantage of that, and he stands a good chance of racking up counting stats at the top of the order. He has -145 odds to record a run on FanDuel Sportsbook.

Joc Pederson, OF, Diamondbacks ($2,800)

Joc Pederson is up against a righty, giving him a good shot to outperform his FanDuel salary for the Arizona Diamondbacks.

Pederson's overall numbers are strong this season, though that's largely because 94 of his 98 plate appearances have come against right-handed pitchers. He's registered a .378 wOBA and .851 OPS in that split, striking out at a solid 18.1% clip.

The vet has mashed righties his entire career, boasting a .355 wOBA and .246 ISO. That does not bode well for Graham Ashcraft.

Ashcraft has been solid for the Cincinnati Reds this season, pitching to a 3.69 SIERA over six starts. That's much improved on last year's 4.80 mark, but he's actually giving up higher barrel and hard-hit rates than he did in 2023. The K rate (20.1%) still isn't anything to write home about, and a 1.30 HR/9 bodes well for Pederson's chances of having a big night.

Pederson has only three homers on the year, but he has the privilege of playing at Great America Ball Park tonight -- the top venue for left-handed power and the fifth-best for lefty hitters overall, per Statcast's Park Factors. Pederson has +390 odds to hit a home run on FanDuel Sportsbook, the second-shortest odds in this game.

Our projections love Pederson tonight, pegging him for 13.1 FanDuel points (4.67 FanDuel points per $1,000). He's our top point-per-dollar value among hitters and tied for the fifth-highest projected outfielder.

Bear in mind that weather could be a factor in Cincinnati, with rain expected as of Wednesday morning, so keep your eyes peeled on the forecast ahead of the 6:40 p.m. ET first pitch.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.