3 Best NFL Same Game Parlay Bets for Week 11

As unnerving as it is, there are some spots where my model deviates from the betting markets this week.

That could mean I'm just flat wrong. But having a different read on things can allow us to enter a game with an angle, which is key for same game parlays.

Let's dig into three spots I like this week based on FanDuel Sportsbook's NFL betting odds.

All NFL odds come from FanDuel Sportsbook and may change after this article is published.

NFL SGP Bets to Target: Week 11

Bears at Vikings

Bears Moneyline (+124)

Kyle Monangai Over 32.5 Rushing Yards (-114)

Jordan Mason Under 29.5 Rushing Yards (-114)

Combined Odds: +338

I think you could make a strong case the Chicago Bears should be favored here, given the inconsistency of the Minnesota Vikings' offense. If that does happen, it would skew things toward the Bears' backfield and away from the Vikings'.

Kyle Monangai didn't do a ton with D'Andre Swift back last week, but his role before Swift's absence was on the ascent. He had played at least 45% of the snaps in three straight, and he was at 39.1% last week. Since getting the jolt to his role, he's averaging 38.0 rushing yards per game.

He was at just 28 last week, but that came in a negative game script. Here, we're assuming that's flipped.

As for Jordan Mason, he has taken a backseat to Aaron Jones since Jones' return. Mason played a season-low 23.0% of the snaps last week, totaling just 4 carries for 25 yards. He has averaged just 21.3 per game with Jones back. If they fall behind -- which is what we're assuming within this SGP -- Jones should be the preferred option, allowing us to tack on the Mason under as the final leg.

Bengals at Steelers

Bengals Moneyline (+198)

Total Under 49.5 (-120)

Chase Brown Any Time Touchdown (+120)

Combined Odds: +925

Combining an any-time touchdown bet with the under is potentially unwise, given one event happening decreases the odds the other occurs. Luckily, FanDuel knows those events are uncorrelated, and it helps boost the payout. And a Chase Brown touchdown would help the Cincinnati Bengals' moneyline, so I don't mind tossing it in.

The other reason I don't mind having Brown in the mix is that both his touchdown odds and the under are quality bets within my models. Even though my model's projected total helps drive my any-time touchdown model, I've still got fair odds for Brown to score at +110. That model knows the wind speed is elevated -- which is why I'm keen on the under -- and it still thinks Brown is a good option at +120.

As for the Bengals' moneyline, it'll be tough as the Pittsburgh Steelers have played good ball at times. But I've got the Bengals winning this one 36.6% of the time, and the implied odds are just 33.6%. It's a big enough edge for me to bite.

Basically, all three of these bets are values for me on their own, and you can tell a story where all three hit simultaneously. That's a quality recipe for me with an SGP, and the payout here reflects the additional risk we're taking on.

Commanders vs. Dolphins

Commanders Moneyline (+126)

Chris Rodriguez Over 37.5 Rushing Yards (-114)

Malik Washington Over 26.5 Receiving Yards (-114)

Combined Odds: +445

This is another spot where I've got the underdog labeled as a favorite, creating value as we talk ourselves into a game script where the Washington Commanders play from in front.

This Commanders' offense hasn't been bad with Marcus Mariota this year. Once you account for matchups, they've actually been above average on early downs through the air in two of Mariota's four starts, and they were just a smidge below in another. I think they'll find success against this Miami Dolphins defense.

Chris Rodriguez Jr. could be a big part of that. He started last week's game but left early due to injury. Rodriguez practiced in full all week and is good to go, meaning we could see him fully in his new role for the first time.

As for Malik Washington, he'd benefit from a more pass-centric approach. He has a 16.2% target share since Tyreek Hill's injury and has gone over his receiving yardage prop in three of those six games. Those targets will come against a battered Commanders defense, which may allow Washington to squeeze out extra yardage on the bunny looks he gets. With Jaylen Waddle's props sky high, Washington's my preferred mark when eyeing a negative game script for Miami.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.