3 Best MLB Bets and Predictions for Tuesday 5/20/25

When you're betting a moneyline, run line, or total in Major League Baseball, you've got to weight a healthy number of factors -- from the starting pitcher to the bullpen and even defense.

After considering those factors, which bets stand out across today's action?

We're going to run through that below, discussing my favorite bets in FanDuel Sportsbook's MLB betting odds. For additional insights, you can also check out our daily MLB player prop projections.

Note: Lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published. All stats come from FanGraphs and Baseball Savant unless noted otherwise.

Today's Best MLB Betting Picks

Tigers at Cardinals

Under 3.5 Runs in First 5 Innings (+118)

Tarik Skubal got banged up -- by his standards -- his last time out, but has otherwise been his lethal-self this season. He enters the night with a 2.67 ERA, 2.68 xERA, 2.20 xFIP, and 2.25 SIERA. His xFIP and SIERA lead the majors.

Here's a look at opposing teams' run totals through the first five frames against Skubal in his last seven starts: 2, 0, 1, 0, 2, 0, and 0 runs. He's more than capable of leaving the fifth inning completely unscathed, and the St. Louis Cardinals aren't an especially threatening foe. It's a big reason why I'm fading early offense in this contest.

On the other side of this game, Erick Fedde will take on the Detroit Tigers' offense. If all goes well with Skubal, Fedde will be granted some wiggle room as this total is concerned, but we might not even need it if the 32-year-old is anything like his last few times out.

Two outings ago, Fedde became just the fourth pitcher this season to pitch a shutout, and he did it without walking a single batter. He followed that performance up by limiting the Philadelphia Phillies to 5 2/3 scoreless innings.

The whole scope of Fedde's deal in 2025 -- 3.44 ERA, 4.93 xERA, 5.14 xFIP -- isn't as pretty, but he's still managed to give up three runs or fewer in seven out of nine starts. Detroit's offensive road numbers are partially inflamed by a three-game, 29-run series at Coors Field from earlier this month, but they've since been held to 0, 1, 2, and 4 runs through the first five on the road.

Rangers at Yankees

Rangers Under 3.5 Runs (-118)

The Texas Rangers have scored under 3.5 runs in 58.3% of total games and 66.7% of road games, but their -118 odds to do so tonight imply just a 54.1% probability.

Facing a budding Will Warren and a strong New York Yankees bullpen, the Rangers' offense can be faded at a value on Tuesday.

Warren's 4.61 ERA isn't inspiring, but he does own a 3.18 xFIP, 3.47 SIERA, and 27.9% strikeout rate through nine starts. Not only are his underlying numbers solid, but he's also given up just three earned runs across his last two starts (12 1/2 IP) all while striking out 16 batters. Moreover, Warren limits intense damage via a 31.2% fly-ball rate and 0.88 home runs per nine innings allowed.

As you could guess based on their low run totals, Texas shows poor marks against righties, including a .295 wOBA (27th), 89 wRC+ (25th), and .377 SLG (24th).

No Corey Seager (10-day IL; hamstring) won't do the offense any favors. He leads the team in batting average and slugging percentage.

Once Warren's night is over, the Yankees will bring in relief arms that have combined for a 3.50 SIERA (8th-best) and 3.75 xFIP (4th-best) in 2025. That should lend itself to a quiet night for Texas' bats.

Cubs at Marlins

Cubs Over 4.5 Runs (-113)

My war on offense comes to a screeching halt when the Chicago Cubs are involved.

Chicago averages the second-most runs per game (5.77) in MLB, including on the road (5.64). The North Siders have scored over 4.5 runs in 56.3% of games -- a slight uptick from the 53.1% implied probability via these -113 odds.

Add in a matchup against a lefty, and it's all systems go for the Cubbies.

The Cubs generate a .214 ISO (3rd), .273 BA (2nd), .488 SLG (3rd), .362 wOBA (2nd), and 133 wRC+ (2nd) versus left-handed pitchers.

Ryan Weathers is tonight's southpaw in question. He'll make his second start of the year after dealing with a left forearm strain at the top of the season, and his May 14th debut just so happened to be against this Cubs team. Though Weathers gave up just one run through five frames in that one, it came via a solo home run. The damage could be worse against a team chock-full of base-getters, especially after Chicago saw his stuff just last week.

Past Weathers, the Miami Marlins have a bullpen that's posted a 4.65 xFIP (28th) and 4.32 SIERA (tied for 30th), making them one of the worst relief units in baseball.

Chicago's offense is primed to thrive in this one. Kyle Tucker (+400) and Seiya Suzuki (+500) are potential targets for FanDuel Sportsbook's Dinger Tuesdays promo.

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Which bets stand out to you today? Check out FanDuel Sportsbook's MLB betting odds to see the full menu of options.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.