3 Best MLB Bets and Predictions for Friday 5/16/25

When you're betting a moneyline, run line, or total in Major League Baseball, you've got to weight a healthy number of factors -- from the starting pitcher to the bullpen and even defense.

After considering those factors, which bets stand out across today's action?

We're going to run through that below, discussing my favorite bets in FanDuel Sportsbook's MLB betting odds. For additional insights, you can also check out our daily MLB player prop projections.

Note: Lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published. All stats come from FanGraphs and Baseball Savant unless noted otherwise.

Today's Best MLB Betting Picks

Tigers at Blue Jays

Tigers Moneyline (-116)

The Detroit Tigers (29-15) and Toronto Blue Jays (21-22) will kick off a three-game series this evening, and we can look to bet the better team's moneyline.

Detroit is sending Jack Flaherty to the mound. He posted a 3.00 xFIP, 3.10 SIERA, and 29.9% strikeout rate a season ago but has hit some road blocks this year, drawing a 4.61 ERA and 4.68 xERA through eight starts. Flaherty is, however, still rocking a 3.35 xFIP and 28.9% strikeout rate, so he's been good.

He'll look to turn the page against Toronto, a team that comes in with middling marks against righties, including a .129 ISO (27th), .308 wOBA (22nd), and 99 wRC+ (20th).

On the other side of this game, we've got a red-hot Tigers offense taking on the struggling Bowden Francis.

Francis enters with a 5.40 ERA, 6.25 xERA, and 4.61 xFIP. His 17.0% K% is down from last season's 22.5% K%, and he's coughing up 2.59 home runs per nine innings. The Tigers are a top-10 offensive team in most metrics against righties, including a .331 wOBA (tied for fifth) and 115 wRC+ (fifth).

Fresh off a three-game sweep against the Boston Red Sox that saw Detroit score a whopping 30 runs, there's a world where the Tigers' offense comes back down to earth soon. Even still, I'm happy to bet their moneyline at -116 odds knowing they'll put forth the better pitcher and offense in this matchup.

Athletics at Giants

First 5 Innings Under 3.5 Runs (+108)

A pair of top-20 starting pitchers by ERA are facing off tonight, leading me to fade early offense in this Athletics-Giants match.

Logan Webb will look to shorten his NL Cy Young odds (+1000) on Friday. Webb has been one of the more consistent throwers in MLB for some time now, and he's leveled up in 2025. He sports a 2.60 ERA, 2.89 xERA, 2.32 xFIP, and 2.70 SIERA through nine starts, and his xFIP is second in the majors to only Tarik Skubal's.

He's holding opponents to 0.33 home runs per nine innings and hasn't given up more than 0.83 home runs per nine innings in a single season since his MLB debut. What's new for Webb? A shiny 29.3% strikeout rate. After existing in the low 20% in K rate for the majority of his career, he's finally blowing batters away. He can leave the fifth inning unscathed against an Athletics team that is 12th in K rate versus righties.

JP Sears doesn't instill us with as much confidence as Webb does, but he's also drawing the easier matchup. The Giants are 18th in weighted on-base average (.295) and 16th in wRC+ (88) versus left-handers, and Sears has dealt to the tune of a 2.80 ERA, 3.34 xERA, and 3.95 SIERA this season.

Sears has held opponents to two runs or fewer in five straight outings. Add in that this one will be played at the pitcher-friendly Oracle Park, and I'm good to side with the under through the first five frames.

Angels at Dodgers

Dodgers Over 7.5 Runs (+235)

Remember when the Los Angeles Dodgers started off the season 16-10 and we thought there was a chance they could be at least a little human in 2025?

That idea has gone out the window. Since April 26th, Los Angeles is 13-5 and has scored over 7.5 runs in more games (10) than not (8). They reached new heights last night after exploding for 19 runs thanks to five home runs. I'm willing to trail in a matchup against Jack Kochanowicz.

Kochanowicz enters with a 5.23 ERA, 4.80 xERA, 5.16 xFIP, and 5.23 SIERA. He's generating only 5.02 strikeouts per nine innings while coughing up an inflamed .527 SLG and 2.31 home runs per nine to lefties. The Dodgers could have up to seven left-handers in their lineup tonight, including three of the first four with Shohei Ohtani, Freddie Freeman, and Max Muncy.

The Dodgers lead MLB in batting average, weighted on-base average, and wRC+ versus northpaws. They tout a stellar 154 wRC+ at home while the second-best team in this split has just a 133 wRC+.

Add in that the Angels' relievers rank dead-last in ERA (6.97) while allowing a league-high 1.86 home runs per nine innings, and it could be another fiery night for the Dodgers' offense. They've scored over 7.5 runs in 38.1% of home games -- up from the 29.9% implied probability on these +285 odds.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.