2 Best Bets for the US Open Women's Semifinals on Day 12

The US Open is into the men's and women's semifinals, and FanDuel Sportsbook has US Open odds for all the matches in the coming days.

First up are the women's semis on Thursday. Let's see which bets are showing value tonight.

US Open Betting Picks for Day 12

Aryna Sabalenka vs. Jessica Pegula

Pegula ML (+260)

We're being treated to a rematch of last year's US Open final, and while Aryna Sabalenka has mostly dominated this matchup, Jessica Pegula could be game to turn the tables this time around.

Due to shaky form over the summer, Pegula wasn't someone I was viewing as a serious contender entering this year's US Open, but I've been thoroughly impressed by her play throughout her run. Pegula hasn't dropped a set through five rounds, and she's won half of those sets by four-plus games.

Although Pegula hasn't faced the toughest competition, her routine 6-3, 6-3 win over an in-form Barbora Krejcikova in the quarterfinals should get our attention. Krejcikova is not only a two-time major champion, but she's been ranked as high as the world No. 2. Krejcikova demonstrated what a tough out she can be in the previous round, where she fought off eight match points in an insane comeback win over US Open darling Taylor Townsend.

Sabalenka hasn't lost a set yet, either, though she's faced a little more adversity, needing to win a tiebreak in two of her matches. It's also notable that she didn't have to play her quarterfinal match due to Marketa Vondrousova being forced to drop out due to injury. While the added rest could be viewed as a positive, it might also cause her to come out flat compared to her dialed-in opponent.

As I alluded to at the start, Sabalenka has held the upper hand in the head-to-head versus Pegula 7-2, and all seven of those wins came in straight sets. However, Pegula did have her chances in last year's final, a 7-5, 7-5 loss that came close to going to a third set, and four of the last six sets she's lost to Sabalenka have been 7-5.

At the end of the day, Sabalenka is pretty firmly the tour's best hard-court player, and she was my pick to win the title. If she comes in with her best stuff, there might not be much Pegula can do. But the American is peaking at the right time, and she will have a clear home-court advantage, which will once again give her the boost. We've seen Sabalenka occasionally get rattled in big matches, and maybe that gives Pegula the opportunity she needs to break through. At these plus odds, that's worth taking a swing at.

Naomi Osaka vs. Amanda Anisimova

Osaka ML (-118)

If there's someone who's been even more impressive than Pegula, it has to be Naomi Osaka, who's finally found the form that made her a four-time major champion before her break from the tour. In fact, there are signs that Osaka 2.0 might be an even better version, which is scary for the rest of the field going forward.

Dating back to the start of the Canadian Open, Osaka has now won 11 of her last 12 matches, and those wins have included seven opponents ranked inside the top 40 in hard court Elo rating and four inside the top 15, per Tennis Abstract.

After being consistently down on herself over the past year and half, Osaka has flipped the switch and shown positive vibes all tournament, often smiling in the middle of matches and repeatedly using the word "fun" in interviews. This coincides with her switching coaches at the end of July, which seems to have put her in a far better mental space.

Amanda Anisimova deserves a ton of credit for her amazing tournament, as well, which includes getting revenge on her double-bagel loss to Iga Swiatek in this year's Wimbledon final by defeating Iga 6-4, 6-3 in the quarterfinals. That's no small feat, and nor is making it to the semifinals in back-to-back majors. This is being priced as close to a pick 'em, and that should absolutely be the case.

Still, Osaka has been at this stage before, and the stat that's been thrown around is that she's gone on to win the title each of the last four times she advanced to a major quarterfinal, and she's now one step closer to a fifth. That could ease the pressure on her, whereas Anisimova is still seeking her first Grand Slam title after coming so close in July. Additionally, Osaka is a popular player, which could make the crowd more split despite Anisimova being an American.

In all, between Osaka's revitalized form and Grand Slam experience, I give her the slight edge to get past Anisimova and make it to her fifth major final.

You can also check out our 2025 US Open men's bracket and women's bracket, both available as free printable downloads at FanDuel Research.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author’s advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.