The Duel

Would You Rather: Draft Tom Brady or Drew Brees in 2020 Fantasy Football

Max Staley
Tom Brady and Drew Brees have similar fantasy outlooks this season.
Tom Brady and Drew Brees have similar fantasy outlooks this season. / Elsa/Getty Images

One of the most intriguing storylines of the 2020 season is the upcoming battle between Tom Brady and Drew Brees in the NFC South. They're neck and neck in pretty much every category on FanDuel Sportsbook, with New Orleans boasting a slight lead in Super Bowl odds (+1200 to +1500), odds to win the NFC (+650 to +700) and odds to win the NFC South (-110 to +160).

The same pattern even exists in fantasy football. Brees carries an average draft position (ADP) of QB9 while Brady is coming off the board at QB10, per FantasyPros. With these two wily veterans set to battle it out all year long, let's break down which QB you should target in the 2020 fantasy season.

Drew Brees Fantasy Outlook

On a per-game basis, Brees was fantasy's QB7 last year, so he's already a bit of a bargain with an ADP of QB9. He was actually even better than that if we remove Week 2, which he left with a broken thumb. Taking that game out of the equation, Brees was actually QB2, averaging a robust 22.5 per game.

To be fair, those numbers are inflated by Brees' career-high 7.1 percent touchdown rate, which is bound to regress. But he should be able to compensate for some of that due to the improvements in the skill-position group. Namely, the addition of Emmanuel Sanders and a healthy Alvin Kamara.

Brees probably isn't going to be a top-two QB again, but he's as safe as it gets and should be a rock-solid weekly starting option.

Tom Brady Fantasy Outlook

Brady is a much different story. Statistically, he fell off in nearly every category imaginable last year. He wasn't even good enough to be an every-week fantasy starter, finishing as QB16 on a per-game basis. Essentially, Brady's value comes down to one simple question: has he declined, or was New England's lackluster offense to blame?

There's tons of evidence that supports both sides. For example, he threw what was deemed an inaccurate pass on 20.6 percent of his attempts – that tied him for the third-highest rate in the league alongside Jameis Winston. On the other hand, Pro Football Focus graded him as the 10th-best QB in the NFL.

It feels odd to say this about someone as established as Tom Brady, but he's a boom-or-bust value.

The last time we saw him with a dynamic supporting cast was 2017. Perhaps not-so-coincidentally, he finished as QB3. Now with Tampa Bay, Brady is trading in the worst weapons he's ever had for a receiving corps that might even top what he had in 2007. If the reports of Brady's demise have been exaggerated, that gives him a top-three ceiling – especially in Bruce Arians' air-it-out system.

But if Father Time has caught up to him, none of that matters much.

If you're looking for a steady, set-it-and-forget it quarterback, go with Drew Brees. But if you want to hit a home run, take a swing on Tom Brady. Just be sure to have a decent backup plan ready.

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Max Staley is not a FanDuel employee. In addition to providing DFS gameplay advice, Max Staley also participates in DFS contests on FanDuel using his personal account, username mstaley1212. While the strategies and player selections recommended in his articles are his personal views, he may deploy different strategies and player selections when entering contests with his personal account. The views expressed in their articles are the author's alone and do not necessarily reflect the views of FanDuel.