Home Run Props Today: Best Dinger Tuesday Home Run Predictions, Picks for Sept. 15

Today's Top Home Run Picks at a Glance

• Kyle Tucker (+420)
• Yordan Alvarez (+280)
• Mickey Moniak (+420)

Across all of sports, few things are more exciting than the long ball.

That translates to the prop market, too, where each crack of the bat can get our heart pumping.

Using our MLB projections as a guide, which home run props stand out for today's MLB action? Also, you can check out our MLB player news page to stay up to date with lineup news and injuries.

MLB odds via FanDuel Sportsbook and may change throughout the day after this article is published. All stats come from FanGraphs and Baseball Savant unless noted otherwise.

Home Run Picks, Props and Predictions Today

Home Run Prediction: Kyle Tucker (+420)

Dodgers at Reds, 6:41 p.m. ET

Cincinnati Reds righty Rhett Lowder is struggling with left-handed hitters, and that puts me on Kyle Tucker to go yard.

Lowder has surrendered a .361 wOBA, 47.8% fly-ball rate and 1.51 homers per nine to lefty bats.

It took a while, but the real Tucker has arrived in LA. Over his last five games, Tucker has launched three jacks while recording a .585 wOBA. He’ll have the platoon advantage against Lowder, and Tucker gets a big park-factor bump from Great American Ball Park.

Plus, Tucker will also see a Cincy bullpen that sits third-worst in reliever xFIP this season (4.82).

Home Run Prediction: Yordan Alvarez (+280)

Royals at Astros, 8:11 p.m. ET

You can make a pretty strong dinger case for Yordan Alvarez on most days, particularly when he’s up against a RHP. That’s the case tonight as the Kansas City Royals are starting Michael Wacha.

Wacha is having a decent season, but with that said, he’s not someone we need to actively avoid as he owns a 4.29 SIERA and 9.5% swinging-strike rate. He’s permitted a 45.2% fly-ball rate to left-handed hitters while giving up six long-balls over his past four games.

Yordan has 38 tanks in 2026 and has mashed his way to a silly .445 wOBA with the platoon advantage. He also has a 51.2% hard-hit rate and 49.5% fly-ball rate against righties, and once Wacha departs, the Houston Astros will face a KC bullpen that ranks next to last in xFIP (4.83).

Home Run Prediction: Mickey Moniak (+420)

Padres at Rockies, 8:41 p.m. ET

Mickey Moniak has pieced together another quality year, and he’s just two homers off his career high, which he set just a season ago.

I like him tonight against righty Walker Buehler.

Moniak has 22 bombs this season, 19 of which have come versus right-handers. On top of that, of those 22 home runs, 18 were hit at Coors. Those two boxes — at home and against a RHP — are checked today.

Buehler has been respectable this campaign. However, he’s still got a 4.35 SIERA and 8.2% swinging-strike rate. Lefties have tagged him for a .342 wOBA, and he’s allowed 1.31 homers per nine away from pitcher-friendly Petco.

Frequently Asked Questions

What does +310 mean on an MLB home run prop bet?

A +310 line means a $100 bet returns $310 in profit if the player homers. You can bet any amount — a $10 bet at +310 returns $31 in profit. The number reflects the implied probability the sportsbook assigns to the event (roughly 24% for +310 odds).

What happens to my FanDuel HR prop if the player doesn't start?

FanDuel's policy is that a HR prop bet will not be voided if the player records at least one plate appearance — even as a pinch hitter. If they don't record a plate appearance, the bet is typically voided. Always check FanDuel's official terms before placing your wager.

Can I parlay home run props together on FanDuel?

Yes. FanDuel allows you to parlay multiple HR props as a standard parlay or as part of a Same Game Parlay (SGP) within a single game. All legs must win for the parlay to pay out.

What factors matter most when betting MLB home run props?

Some of the most important factors are: the hitter's recent HR rate and raw power profile, the opposing pitcher's home run rate allowed, ballpark dimensions and park factors, wind direction and game-time temperature, and batter-vs-pitcher handedness splits.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.