5 March Madness Upset Picks for Round 1 in Your 2022 NCAA Tournament Bracket

March Madness is here, and that means there are only a couple days left to fill out your 2022 March Madness bracket.

With your funny bracket name set, your March Madness winner decided and even some sleeper picks ready, it's time to figure out those Round 1 upset picks.

The Duel is here to help, with our top five March Madness upset picks for Round 1.

March Madness Upset Picks

5. No. 11 Michigan Over No. 6 Colorado State

Let's start with an easy one, and we wouldn't even be calling this an upset if not for the official seeding. Michigan is actually favored to beat Colorado State, with a 2.5-point spread. You're not going to find a double-digit seed more likely to win in Round 1 than the Wolverines.

4. No. 10 Miami Over No. 7 USC

We don't quite have the lower seed as a favorite here, but Miami is just a 1.5-point underdog against USC. It's not hard to see why, either. USC is the tournament's worst No. 7 seed according to KenPom rankings, and they enter the tournament having lost three of their last four. The Canes aren't exactly world beaters themselves, but this pick is more about fading the Trojans.

3. No. 10 San Francisco Over No. 7 Murray State

San Francisco vs Murray State is one of the more fun Round 1 matchups, and it's another 7 vs. 10 game with a super tight spread. The Dons are just 1.5-point underdogs. San Francisco comes in not only as KenPom's top-ranked 10 seed, but at No. 21 in the nation they're ranked ahead of every single No. 9 seed, every No. 8 seed and every No. 7 seed — including Murray State.

2. No. 11 Virginia Tech Over No. 6 Texas

The Hokies are one of the hottest teams in the country heading into the tournament. Their last three wins have come over the top three seeds in the ACC in Notre Dame, UNC and Duke. Like San Francisco, they check in way higher in KenPom rankings (23rd) than their tournament seeding would suggest.

1. No. 12 Indiana Over No. 5 Saint Mary's

The most likely 12-5 upset in this year's bracket does require one extra step, as Indiana will need to get past Wyoming in the play-in round first. The Hoosiers are KenPom's 36th-ranked team, making them the most dangerous 12 seed by a big margin. Their recent results leave a lot to be desired (2-3 in their last five), but the level of competition they faced in that time makes those losses more than forgivable, especially with the wins coming over Michigan and a No. 4 seed in Illinois.

Jason Schandl is not a FanDuel employee. In addition to providing DFS gameplay advice, Jason Schandl also participates in DFS contests on FanDuel using his personal account, username Jaymun. While the strategies and player selections recommended in his articles are his personal views, he may deploy different strategies and player selections when entering contests with his personal account. The views expressed in his articles are the author's alone and do not necessarily reflect the views of FanDuel.