World Wide Technology Championship: Best Bets, Daily Fantasy Golf Picks, Win Simulations

This week, the PGA Tour heads to a new course: the Tiger Woods-designed El Cardonal in Cabo San Lucas, Mexico.

Without any past history at this event, we'll need to use some guesswork for which stats matter, so let's dive in.

El Cardonal Course Info

All course data from GCSAA unless otherwise noted.

• Par: 72
• Distance: 7,452 yards (around 70 yards longer than the average par 72)
• Average Fairway Width: N/A
• Average Green Size: 8,300 square feet (very large)
• Green Type: Paspalum
• Stimpmeter: 11-12
• Recent Winning Scores: N/A
• Recent Cut Lines: N/A

El Cardonal Course Key Stats

• Strokes Gained: Approach
• Strokes Gained: Off the Tee
  • Emphasis on Driving Distance
• Birdie or Better Rate
• Total Strokes Gained
• Par 5 Scoring

With no history at El Cardonal, we have nothing certain to draw off of, but the course is a par 72, so par 5 scoring isn't a bad proxy to use.

There are also three long par 5s of 580-plus yards with the fourth being 554 (around average for the PGA Tour)

Here's a glimpse at the hole-by-hole breakdown in terms of length.

There are three holes that are particularly short: the 3rd and 10th (a pair of short par 4s) and a 154-yard par 3 (the 16th). But there are six noticeably long par 4s of 460-plus yards.

As a resort course, it should play fairly easy, and the greens are massive (around 138% of the average course), so birdies are probably what it'll take to win.

Best Golfers at El Cardonal

This is a first-time host course.

World Wide Technology Championship Win Simulations

Here's what my model -- based on long-term scoring trends, recency adjustments, and field-strength weighting -- has to say about this week's event.

Ludvig Aberg is -- rightfully -- favored, but there's not a lot of wiggle room at +900, especially at a course that should be scorable. More birdies mean more contenders, usually, as the skill gap shrinks when fewer tough holes exist.

Beau Hossler (+2800) continues to pop in the model during the fall.

J.J. Spaun (+3500) is an interesting name, too. He ranks sixth in strokes gained: approach over the past 50 rounds, per datagolf, and is sixth in strokes gained: tee to green, as well.

The model also thinks Chris Kirk (+4000) is a fair value. Kirk has a balanced profile, including good irons.

Michael Kim (+8000) stands out to me (and the model). He's a strong fairway-through-green player.

World Wide Technology Championship Daily Fantasy Golf Picks

These picks stand out relative to their FanDuel daily fantasy golf salary based on my stats model, which accounts for the most important stats for this week's event. All stats cited below originate at datagolf and reference ranks relative to the field over the past 50 rounds. References to my combo model refer to a combination of long-term, field-adjusted form, key stat performance, and hole-by-hole-level strokes gained data.

World Wide Technology Championship DFS Studs

Ludvig Aberg ($12,000 | +900)

Aberg is a target until we learn otherwise. He has gained strokes from approach play in five straight measured events, and he enters with six consecutive top-15 finishes. That includes a win at the Omega European Masters in early September.

He leads the field in strokes gained: tee to green among golfers with at least 10 ShotLink rounds over a golfer's past 50 overall rounds.

Beau Hossler ($10,900 | +2800)

Hossler is golfing quite well right now. He has finished top-30 in all four events since the start of September, including a T7 at the Shriners Children's Open and a T2 at the ZOZO Championship.

Hossler's got an all-around game that should translate to an unfamiliar course, as well.

Others to Consider:

• Cameron Young ($11,900 | +1100)
• Sahith Theegala ($11,600 | +1600)
• J.J. Spaun ($10,800 | +3500)
• Adam Svensson ($10,100 | +3500)

World Wide Technology Championship DFS Mid-Range Plays

Davis Thompson ($9,800 | +4500)

Win equity falls off quickly outside the top five or so, so Davis Thompson's simulation result stands out to me, just shy of a $10,000 salary.

Thompson can pick up distance off the tee (31st), which is always a leg up, as strokes gained: off the tee is the most predictable stat of any.

The putting is and remains a concern. However, the tee-to-green upside makes him worth targeting in this range.

Andrew Putnam ($9,500 | +5500)

Putnam rates out as a top-three iron player over the past 50 rounds, as well as a top-15 putter.

While his lack of distance (121st) isn't something I particularly love this week, he ranks second in the field in strokes gained: approach through putting.

Others to Consider:

• Mark Hubbard ($9,700 | +5500)
• Doug Ghim ($9,400 | +6000)
• Davis Riley ($9,300 | +6000)

World Wide Technology Championship DFS Value Plays

Michael Kim ($8,800 | +8000)

Kim's 1.4% win odds in my simulation model give him the only probability better than 1.0% among all golfers with a salary of $9,000 or lower.

For that reason, he's a priority. Kim is 31st or better in strokes gained: approach, around the green, and putting. Ultimately, he's 14th in those three stats combined.

Brandon Wu ($8,900 | +7500)

Wu has made five straight cuts but has maxed out at a T37 finish. His putting has been pretty spotty, and he's got some poor splits from 5 to 15 feet.

But Wu is a top-30 tee-to-green golfer in the field and a top-30 ball-striker.

Others to Consider:

• Vincent Whaley ($8,900 | +9000)
• Nate Lashley ($8,600 | +11000)
• MJ Daffue ($8,300 | +9000)
• Preston Summerhays ($7,100 | +17000)

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.