WNBA

WNBA Rookie of the Year Odds: Caitlin Clark, Angel Reese Lead the Pack

Annie Nader
Annie Nader@ANader33
WNBA Rookie of the Year Odds: Caitlin Clark, Angel Reese Lead the Pack

The 2024 WNBA rookie class continues to make headlines. Sunday's third installment of the budding rivalry between the Indiana Fever and Chicago Sky -- perhaps more commonly known as the Caitlin Clark vs. Angel Reese showdown -- reinforced just that.

Clark contributed 17 points, 13 assists, 6 rebounds, and 4 steals while Reese shined with 25 points and 16 rebounds.

These two players have carried their Iowa vs. LSU rivalry into the W, and both serve as a major talking point in this season's Rookie of the Year race.

Cameron Brink, the second overall pick in the 2024 WNBA draft, sustained a season-ending torn ACL, removing her from consideration.

Before we dive into the odds for this market, let's take a look at the historical statistical benchmarks for the WNBA's Rookie of the Year.

In the last 10 years-- not accounting for the shortened 2020 season -- 9 out of 10 winners of this award led all rookies in minutes per game, with the lone outlier ranking second.

Seven out of 10 winners led rookies in points per game while the other three ranked second in this regard. Further, 8 out of 10 ROTYs fared in the top two of Player Impact Estimate (PIE) in their award-winning freshman campaign.

With this criteria in mind, let's jump into the WNBA Rookie of the Year odds and see which player could hoist the hardware.

WNBA Rookie of the Year Odds

Player
WNBA Rookie of the Year Odds
Caitlin Clark-950
Angel Reese+600
Rickea Jackson+12000
Kamilla Cardoso+12000
Aaliyah Edwards+12000

Caitlin Clark (-950)

It's no surprise that Caitlin Clark is the chalk to take home this season's Rookie of the Year award.

Although the hype surrounding Clark erroneously neglected how her game would translate to the professional level, the learning curve has not been without its bright moments.

As of this writing, she leads all rookies with 16.3 points and 6.6 assists per game. More importantly, she plays 33.7 minutes per game, the most among this class.

Given Clark's role as Indiana's floor general, it'd be shocking to see a fellow rookie surpass her in the minutes department, a stat that serves as a glaring commonality among previous ROTY winners.

With that being said, a -9.3 net rating and league-leading 5.6 turnovers per game could sour her case. Clark's 11.3 PIE also ranks second behind Reese's.

Her unrivaled usage and a heavy dose of media scrutiny should undoubtedly make Clark the favorite in this market, but a burgeoning candidate in Reese could expose that these -950 odds are inflated.

Angel Reese (+600)

If we account for all statistical categories, it wouldn't be a stretch to say that Reese is currently having the best season among all rookies.

She's averaging 13.2 points (second behind Clark) and a rookie-leading 11.1 rebounds per game, which is also good for the second-most rebounds in the league, behind only A'ja Wilson.

Last week, the Chicago forward made history by recording her seventh straight double-double, the longest streak for a rookie in the WNBA. Reese has since extended that streak to eight games after willing Chicago to victory over Indiana with the aforementioned 25 points and 16 rebounds.

Underlying metrics favor Reese, too. She touts a +3.5 net rating (best among rookie starters) and leads the class with a 13.2 PIE.

She is averaging 30.5 minutes per game, second to Clark's 33.7 minutes per night. However, Reese has been playing 33.1 minutes across her last seven games, so it's possible she may catch up to Clark from a volume perspective.

It may seem hard to fade Clark in this market, but Reese's resume thus far is that of a potential Rookie of the Year winner, so I see value in these +600 odds.

Others

Rickea Jackson, Kamilla Cardoso, and Aaliyah Edwards are the only other players even listed in this market, and all own identical +12000 odds.

Jackson, while off to a solid start, is not receiving enough floor time to compete in this race. The same goes for Edwards, who has been productive in her role on the Washington Mystics but ranks behind starters Shakira Austin and Stefanie Dolson on the team's depth chart.

Cardoso missed the first six games of the season and is playing just 23.8 minutes per contest. Although efficiency hasn't been a problem for the former South Carolina standout, she'll be hard-pressed to make up for the subdued usage now that we're nearly halfway through the season, and there's only room for one ROTY candidate in Chicago.

With this in mind, I wouldn't consider the Caitlin Clark (-950) vs. The Field (+540) market. This race will, quite aptly, come down to Clark vs. Reese.


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