WNBA Betting Picks and Player Props to Target for Monday 6/10/24

Annie Nader
Annie Nader@ANader33
WNBA Betting Picks and Player Props to Target for Monday 6/10/24

The WNBA is back, and fans and bettors alike can get into the action on FanDuel Sportsbook.

The W's 40-game season offers a wide variety of betting options, including point spreads, moneylines, and totals. While there's a lot to sift through, advanced stats from the WNBA can help us find an edge in the betting market.

Let's dive into the WNBA odds on FanDuel Sportsbook and find today's best bets.

Please note lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published.

WNBA Best Bets

Indiana Fever at Connecticut Sun

Fever +11.0 (-110)

We're starting to see some interesting parity across the WNBA. Although the Washington Mystics (0-12) may like to have a word, that sentiment has been especially true for road underdogs.

Entering Monday, favorites are 24-27 against the spread (ATS) and underdogs are 28-24 ATS. More notably, the home team is 20-32 ATS while the away team is 32-19 ATS.

It's hard to swallow the idea of backing the mangled Indiana Fever (3-9) when they visit a team as dominant as the Connecticut Sun (9-1), but it could be worthwhile to take the points here.

There's little doubt in my mind that Connecticut will notch their 10th victory of the season tonight, but there are a few things that may allow Indiana to keep up.

The Fever have had a brutal go of it schedule-wise. They recently hit a stretch where they played four games in six days before receiving a four-day break that led to their win over Washington.

Now, they'll come into a game having received two days of rest, which has only happened for this group on two occasions. Even still, they've managed to keep 7 of their last 10 games within 11 points.

Connecticut has been among the best defenses in the league for a few years now, but this season, they've stamped themself into the top spot with a resounding 89.7 defensive rating. They play at the slowest pace in the league, and though they've been great at asserting this pace onto other teams, their games have been kept a bit closer against the fastest teams in the league.

The Sun have played six games against teams that rank in the top 5 of pace -- two against Indiana and Washington (0-12) and one against the Dallas Wings (3-7) and Chicago Sky (4-6). Despite going 6-0 in this span, Connecticut only won these games by an average of 9.6 points and kept four out of six contests within seven points.

Connecticut won the season opener against Indiana by a score of 92-71. While the initial hype surrounding Indiana has lost its shine since this time, they have become a more assembled group now that we're nearly one month into the season.

These teams went on to play just one week later, with the Sun securing an 88-84 win despite shooting 17 more free-throw attempts (FTA) than Indiana. The Fever have surrendered just 16.3 FTA (fourth-fewest) across their last four games, so they might not shoot themself in the foot again by handing the Sun a win from the charity stripe.

Kelsey Mitchell (16.9 points per game as a starter) has shined in a starting role, and Caitlin Clark looks primed to fire away off the heels of a 7-for-13 performance from downtown.

While much more could be said about the likes of Alyssa Thomas and DeWanna Bonner for Connecticut, I think Indiana can squeeze by to cover this spread.

Caitlin Clark 3+ Made Threes (-158) / 4+ Made Threes (+188)

Clark’s Team USA "snub" has been the talk of the town this week, and Indiana coach Christie Sides relayed that it has "awakened a monster."

The Fever rookie is out to prove something. Compound that with a scorching 7-for-13 downtown shooting performance in her most recent game, and I like Clark’s potential shot volume from behind the arc in this one.

Clark is averaging 8.7 three-point attempts (3PA) per game. She’s played three games against teams that rank in the top 4 of most 3PA allowed to guards and averaged 10.3 3PA in that span.

Two of those contests came against Connecticut. She went 4-for-11 in their first meeting and 3-for-7 in their second battle after missing a portion of the game due to injury.

While the Sun own every top defensive mark you could ask for, they are much more focused on guarding and protecting the interior, allowing the fewest FGA in the paint and from the mid-range.

I don’t expect Clark to get off the easiest looks against this team, but I do expect her shot volume to near or surpass 10.0 3PA.

Alyssa Thomas Over 19.5 Reb + Ast (+102)

Thomas is averaging 18.2 combined rebounds and assists (RA) this season but could punch above that number in this matchup.

As mentioned, this is a pace-up game for Connecticut, who will take on the fourth-fastest team in the league. Not accounting for a contest in which she was ejected, Thomas is averaging 20.75 RA in four games against teams that rank in the top half of pace, including a pair of 23 RA outings versus Indiana.

We saw a similar trend last season. In six games against teams that ranked in the top half of pace but the bottom half of net rating, she averaged 19.3 RA and cleared 19.5 RA in 50.0% of those contests, missing by the hook on one occasion.

Indiana surrenders the second-most assists and the most rebounds to forwards per 36 minutes, putting Thomas in a solid spot to clear this prop.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.