WNBA Betting Picks and Player Props for Sunday 7/7/24

Austin Swaim
Austin SwaimASwaim3
WNBA Betting Picks and Player Props for Sunday 7/7/24

The WNBA season is rolling along, and fans and bettors alike can get into the action on FanDuel Sportsbook.

The W's 40-game season offers a wide variety of betting options, including point spreads, moneylines, and totals. While there's a lot to sift through, advanced stats from the WNBA can help us find an edge in the betting market.

Let's dive into the WNBA odds on FanDuel Sportsbook and find today's best bets.

Please note lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published.

WNBA Best Bets

Atlanta Dream at Connecticut Sun

Dream Under 68.5 Points (-108)
Brionna Jones Over 12.5 Points (-108)

Injuries have derailed the Atlanta Dream's season. This doesn't seem like the spot it turns.

Expect Rhyne Howard, Jordin Canada, and Aerial Powers all out again Sunday after they missed Friday's game, and their offensive metrics have plummeted without all of those playmakers. Atlanta's 95.4 oRTG is worst in the league over every team's respective last 10 games.

Now, add in the Connecticut Sun defense, and we've got issues. Connecticut has a top-two defense whether you look at the overall dRTG (93.4) or just the last 10 games (97.2). These two squads also play at two of the slowest three paces in the W.

After barely squeaking by their team total against the Dallas Wings (108.0 dRTG overall), expect them to struggle to score against the Sun. On the flip side, I'm looking at their center, Brionna Jones, to not struggle to score.

Atlanta's lone best scorers are on the interior, so expect a heavy workload for Jones in this one. The Dream took just six total threes on Friday. That bodes well for the Maryland alum, who has averaged 18.0 points per 36 minutes this season. That's second on the team; consistent playing time has just been the issue.

Rotowire is projecting 14.3 points in 30.0 minutes for Jones on Sunday.

Dallas Wings at Las Vegas Aces

Aces -10.0 in First Half (-112)
Kelsey Plum Under 18.5 Points (-118)

I'm playing an extreme blowout for the Las Vegas Aces after a rare loss in L.A. on Friday.

Las Vegas has absolutely dominated at home recently, posting the league's best home net rating (+18.5) since Chelsea Gray returned to the lineup on June 19th. On the flip side, the Wings -- down several players -- have a hideous -15.0 net rating on the road in their last 10 games. The Wings just beat the Dream, so there isn't a better time to sell a flawed group.

Rather than risk a reserve-driven comeback, I'll just take the shorter number that the Aces are ahead by double digits at halftime. With only potential three quarters of work, I'll continue to try to sell Kelsey Plum until she's back to Earth.

With Gray back in the fold, Plum's 22.0% usage rate is actually just fourth on her own team. Yet, she's been absolutely scorching and has hit the over on her points prop in every July contest thus far. The Washington alum has shot 27-for-46 (58.7%) from the field despite 27 of those shots coming from deep. No one can sustain this sort of shooting forever.

For all the things Dallas does poorly, they give up the third-fewest three-point attempts per game (21.3). They can limit Plum from deep even if teammates maul the Wings from inside.

Rotowire has Plum projected for just 17.3 points in 33.0 minutes. Should she see even less time on the court, this could cash with ease.

Chicago Sky at Seattle Storm

Storm -9 (-112)

No one bets the NBA (or WNBA) with shooting splits more than me. This Chicago Sky-Seattle Storm immediate rematch is exactly why.

Chicago surprised as a 10-point road underdog to win outright (by 4) on Friday. However, in a make or miss league, that was precisely the only reason. The Sky had a 54.2 true-shooting percentage (TS%) despite being the worst shooting team in the W (49.9 TS%) this season.

On the flip side, Seattle went 3-for-19 (15.8%) from deep despite carving the Sky up for 27-for-47 shooting (57.4%) on the inside. If the Storm simply matched their season average from three (30.0%), they're five-point winners in lieu of outright losers.

I'm expecting the script to flip in the rematch. Seattle's +15.4 net rating at home -- even including Friday -- is the best in the league, and the Sky could fall behind quickly if Chennedy Carter isn't dropping 33 points.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.