WNBA Betting Picks and Player Props for Saturday 7/6/24

Austin Swaim
Austin SwaimASwaim3
WNBA Betting Picks and Player Props for Saturday 7/6/24

The WNBA season is rolling along, and fans and bettors alike can get into the action on FanDuel Sportsbook.

The W's 40-game season offers a wide variety of betting options, including point spreads, moneylines, and totals. While there's a lot to sift through, advanced stats from the WNBA can help us find an edge in the betting market.

Let's dive into the WNBA odds on FanDuel Sportsbook and find today's best bets.

Please note lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published.

WNBA Best Bets

New York Liberty at Indiana Fever

Fever +10 (-110)
NaLyssa Smith Over 20.5 Points and Rebounds (-106)

The Indiana Fever and New York Liberty met three times early in the season as Caitlin Clark was just getting her feet wet as a pro. An average margin of victory of 24.3 points is why this margin keeps drifting in N.Y.'s direction, but Indiana has been much better of late.

They've won four in a row at home, which might be a bit masked given this recent 1-3 road trip. Overall, Indiana's -0.5 net rating in their last 10 games isn't too far from performing up to snuff against the league-best Liberty (+11.3) in this same period. That's especially the case in Gainbridge Fieldhouse, where they've covered six of eight spreads.

DRatings (8.0) and Massey Ratings (7.7) blend these same recent and overall trends and came away with much shorter spreads than 10 points. This team is significantly more functional than the one that was blown out three times by the W's best.

Keeping things closer might also come from help from their "extras"; Clark has become more of a facilitator to post a league-high 7.9 dimes per game in this same period. NaLyssa Smith could be the beneficiary of that.

I want to buy the dip on Smith's five-point outing in her last. She had posted six straight double-digit scoring efforts prior to that contest, and she's also racked up 11.2 rebounds per 36 minutes in the last 10.

Rotowire has the former Baylor forward projected for 12.8 points and 9.7 rebounds in Saturday's contest. That smashes this prop and puts Smith to Record a Double-Double (+230) on the map.

Washington Mystics at Minnesota Lynx

Lynx Under 83.5 Points (-108)
Kayla McBride Over 3.5 Assists (-114)

There's a huge injury in the W today, and it's Naphessa Collier of the Minnesota Lynx.

Collier left a 4th of July matchup early with a foot injury and did not return. She's in serious peril for Saturday's contest against the Washington Mystics, which in combination with Washington's improved form, has me taking a speculative dart at the under on Minnesota's scoring total tonight.

The Team USA forward is the Lynx's engine on offense, pouring in 20.0 points per game (fifth in the WNBA) on solid efficiency (54.2 TS%) and heavy usage (26.9% rate). Without her, Minnesota mustered just 20 points in 12:36 of play, which extrapolated over 40 minutes would result in a total of just 63.5 points.

The 'Stics also are a league-average scoring matchup of late. Washington has combined the sixth-best defensive rating with the WNBA's sixth-slowest pace over their last 10 games after traffic-cone-like defense early in the season.

If Collier does indeed end up sitting Saturday, this line will look like a bargain. The same goes for Kayla McBride's assist prop in her stead.

McBride likely shifts with Courtney Williams into an uninspiring one-two punch, but this line will be well within her reach given the added responsibility. The Notre Dame alum is already averaging 3.7 assists per game this season, topping or meeting this line in three of her last four games.

Rotowire has her projected at 4.0 assists even, which would merit roughly -131 odds on over 3.5 assists. McBride and Williams' markets are otherwise juiced in light of this news, but this one area seems to have been left behind.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.