WNBA Betting Picks and Player Props for Monday 7/1/24

Annie Nader
Annie Nader@ANader33
WNBA Betting Picks and Player Props for Monday 7/1/24

The WNBA season is rolling along, and fans and bettors alike can get into the action on FanDuel Sportsbook.

The W's 40-game season offers a wide variety of betting options, including point spreads, moneylines, and totals. While there's a lot to sift through, advanced stats from the WNBA can help us find an edge in the betting market.

Let's dive into the WNBA odds on FanDuel Sportsbook and find today's best bets.

Please note lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published.

WNBA Best Bets

Connecticut Sun at Phoenix Mercury

Sun -2.5 (-112)

The Connecticut Sun (14-4) will clash with the Phoenix Mercury (9-9) tonight, and I'll gladly back the better team to cover a close spread.

Connecticut's red-hot 13-1 start has come to its inevitable conclusion. They've dropped three of their last four games, but even still, we should not be overly concerned considering the circumstances.

Two of those three losses came against the Las Vegas Aces and Seattle Storm, a pair of legit title contenders. The third loss was at the hands of an underwhelming Atlanta Dream team, but Atlanta managed to shoot 42.9% from downtown (31.9% 3P% on the season), while the Sun shot a below-average 39.0% from the field.

I'd expect a highly motivated Connecticut group to make their presence known at Footprint Center. They come in with the second-best defense and third-best net rating. The Sun lead the league in free-throw attempt rate and cede the fewest three-point attempts (3PA) per game, while their opponent for the night shoots the second-most 3PA.

Phoenix is off the heels of a loss to the Indiana Fever, handing Caitlin Clark and company their first win of the season against a team that entered with a winning record. The Mercury have a trio of 2024 Olympians on their roster in Diana Taurasi, Kahleah Copper, and Brittney Griner, but a lack of efficiency on both ends of the court has left the team with a -3.7 net rating.

The Mercury are 2-4 against the top three defenses in the league. Their point differential in this span stands at a notable -68 points, including a 23-point loss in their one meeting with the Sun. Phoenix's transition offense has been stimulated since Griner returned from injury, but the Sun could prove limiting, as they surrender the fewest fast break and turnover points in the W.

We rarely see WNBA teams play back-to-backs, so Phoenix should have their work cut out for them in this one. I'll side with the second-place Sun to show up in this bounce-back spot.

Alyssa Thomas Over 16.5 Reb + Ast (-106)

Alyssa Thomas is averaging 17.0 combined rebounds and assists (RA).

Dating back to last season, she has cleared 16.5 RA in 57.4% of games where she played at least 27 minutes. Thomas is averaging 34.1 minutes, and these -106 odds imply just a 51.5% probability, so I'm satisfied with the value here.

The main reason to target Thomas is thanks to her matchup against Phoenix. The Sun play at the slowest tempo in the league, while the Mercury play at the third-fastest tempo, so the pace-up nature of this contest should benefit Connecticut's stat-stuffer.

More importantly, the Mercury surrender the most rebounds and the most assists to guards per game. They frequently allow opposing guards to put up above-average numbers, as evidenced by their recent games.

In the last two weeks of play, they granted Skylar Diggins-Smith 14 RA (8.9 RA average), Sabrina Ionescu 15 RA (10.8 RA average), Courtney Williams 13 RA (10.2 RA average), and Clark 21 RA (12.6 RA average).

Thomas, who leads the league in assists and ranks fifth in rebounds, is primed to join that aforementioned list.

DeWanna Bonner Over 16.5 Points (-104)

As we look for Thomas to take hold of board and playmaking duties, let's target DeWanna Bonner's scoring prop.

Bonner is averaging 16.7 points and has eclipsed 16.5 points in 11 out of 18 games. She's cleared this prop in 61.1% of games and has scored at least 16 points in 77.8% of contests, so I'm eager to grab these -104 odds, which imply just a 50.9% probability.

A meeting with a bottom-half team (via net rating) typically suits Bonner. In this split, she is averaging 17.6 points and has notched over 16.5 points in 7 out of 10 games, missing by the hook once.

Phoenix's sub-par defense and fast-paced play should be grounds for Connecticut's leading scorer to get busy.

Dallas Wings at Seattle Storm

Ezi Magbegor Over 8.5 Rebounds (+116)

The Seattle Storm (12-6) pummeled the Dallas Wings (4-14) by a score of 97-76 on Saturday and will now look to run it back as the 11.5-point favorites tonight.

While it's practical to like Seattle in this game, I'm not willing to bite on this spread. It's not easy to grab back-to-back 12-plus point victories against the same team, so instead, let's check out Ezi Magbegor's rebounding prop.

Magbegor is averaging 8.9 rebounds and has surpassed 8.5 rebounds in 10 out of 18 games, missing by the hook twice.

She is averaging 32.1 minutes per game. Dating back to last season, Magbegor has exceeded 8.5 rebounds in 61.5% of games (24 out of 39 contests) in which she played at least 30 minutes, but these +116 odds imply just a 46.3% probability.

The value here is enticing, and it doesn't hurt that Dallas lets up the second-most offensive boards in the league.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.