Week 10 International Series: Betting Picks, Props, and DFS Plays (Colts vs. Patriots)

Sunday's Week 10 slate begins in Germany with a matchup between the Indianapolis Colts and the New England Patriots. Per the NFL odds at FanDuel Sportsbook, the Colts currently rate as 1.5-point favorites, and the total is set at 43.5 points.

Colts at Patriots Best Bets

Colts ML (-126)

While Sunday morning's matchup includes two teams with records under .500, the Colts clearly rank as the better team when comparing their 18th overall rating in numberFire's expected point differential rankings with the Patriots' 31st mark while also fielding the better offense (17th versus 31st) and defense (15th versus 23rd) by eye-popping margins.

With clear edges on both sides of the ball, numberFire's models display some confidence towards the Colts moneyline with a 63.4% winning probability and a 7.6% edge between the Colts' current 55.7% implied percentage and numbeFire's expected mark.

Colts at Patriots Prop Bets

Demario Douglas Over 3.5 receptions (-166)

After seeing a team-high seven targets last week with several injuries in New England's receiving group, the Patriots' rookie will need to step up again versus a Colts' team allowed 12.1 receptions per game to receivers.

In his four games with an offensive snap percentage over 41% this season, Douglas has cleared this number in all of these situations while averaging 4.5 receptions on 6.75 targets in this split.

Rhamondre Stevenson Under 12.5 rushing attempts (-136)

While Stevenson has recently flashed some efficiency in his production, New England's running back has still been stuck in a time share with Ezekiel Elliott and has been under this mark in his last five games by a wide margin with an average of 9.2 carries.

Since the Patriots are considered underdogs on Sunday, a negative game script could also work against Stevenson's potential rushing volume when observing his 11.1 attempts average in New England's seven losses this season.

Colts at Patriots DFS Picks

MVP Options

Jonathan Taylor ($16,500): For the first time this season, Taylor was employed in a lead role last week, accounting for 23 touches and a 73.8% offensive snap percentage. In a favorable matchup against a New England defense ranked 19th in fantasy production allowed per game to running backs, Taylor is second among his team with a 14.6 fantasy projection.

Gardner Minshew ($15,000): Despite his boom or bust performances this season, the Colts' quarterback ranks first overall with 15.9 expected FanDuel points versus a Patriots' team allowing 15.9 fantasy points allowed per game to his position.

Michael Pittman Jr. ($13,500): According to Sharp Football, Pittman Jr. would see a sizable boost in volume if Josh Downs is unable to suit up, accounting for a 34.3% target share in this split. In an opportunity versus a defense employing man coverage in 32.3% of their plays, Pittman has displayed positive production against this strategy, recording 1.40 fantasy points per target and a 46.5% win rate versus man.

Rhamondre Stevenson ($12,500): Even in a committee role, Stevenson is fourth overall with 12.8 fantasy projection against a Colts' unit ranked 28th in fantasy points (25.6) allow per game to his position. Despite inconsistent rushing volume, Stevenson has played a key receiving role, recording a 81.2% route participation percentage.

Flex Options

Demario Douglas ($10,000): In an increased role with DeVante Parker and Kendrick Bourne sidelined, New England's rookie ranks first among his team on Sunday in targets (5.82) and second in receiving with 3.6 projected receptions for 42.1 yards. Against an Indianapolis team that should employ a heavy zone scheme, Douglas could see a potential increase in his production after he averaged 1.99 fantasy points per target versus zone this season.

Matt Gay ($9,500): With the Colts favored in Germany, the Colts' kicker could provide sneaky fantasy production after Gay averaged 2.8 made field goals and 2.5 extra point conversions in four Indianapolis wins this season.

Hunter Henry ($9,000): New England's tight end is third on his team with 4.9 expected targets in a great spot versus a defense ranked 28th in fantasy points allowed to his position.

Ezekiel Elliott ($8,000): The 28-year old continues to see a role in the Patriots' backfield, averaging 8.1 rushing attempts and 1.7 receptions per game. At a salary ranked 13th among Sunday morning's slate, Elliott is fifth overall in value with a 0.95 rating and a 7.6 fantasy projection.

JuJu Smith-Schuster ($7,500): Despite his lackluster performance this season, the veteran emerged last week with a season-high six receptions for 51 yards. Smith-Schuster ranks first among Patriots in expected receiving production with 3.8 receptions for 42.7 yards versus a Colts' defense allowing 33.4 fantasy points per game to wideouts.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.