UMBC vs Vermont College Basketball Prediction, Odds, Picks, Best Bets for America East Tournament Championship

The top-seeded UMBC Retrievers (23-8, 14-2 America East) will square off against the No. 2 seed Vermont Catamounts (22-11, 12-4 America East) in the America East championship game with an automatic berth in the NCAA Tournament up for grabs. The contest on Saturday at Chesapeake Employers Insurance Arena starts at 11 a.m. ET.

Before you place your bet on this matchup at FanDuel Sportsbook, here are the NCAA basketball odds and spreads you need to know.

UMBC vs. Vermont Game Info and Odds

• Game day: Saturday, March 14, 2026
• Game time: 11 a.m. ET
• TV channel: ESPN2
• Location: Baltimore, Maryland
• Arena: Chesapeake Employers Insurance Arena

UMBC vs. Vermont Picks and Prediction

All college basketball win probability predictions and picks are according to numberFire.
Prediction: UMBC win (59.6%)

Here's a look at some betting trends for UMBC (-3.5) versus Vermont on Saturday. The over/under is set at 137.5 points for this game.

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UMBC vs. Vermont: ATS Betting Stats and Trends

• UMBC has won 18 games against the spread this season, while failing to cover 11 times.
• Vermont is 15-16-0 ATS this year.
• When the spread is set as 3.5 or more this season, UMBC (12-6) covers a higher percentage of those games when it is the favorite (66.7%) than Vermont (2-2) does as the underdog (50%).
• The Retrievers own a worse record against the spread at home (8-6-0) than they do in road games (10-5-0).
• Against the spread, the Catamounts have performed better at home (8-6-0) than on the road (6-8-0).
• UMBC's record against the spread in conference play is 13-5-0.
• Against the spread in America East games, Vermont is 9-9-0 this year.

UMBC vs. Vermont: Moneyline Betting Stats

• UMBC has won in 19, or 95%, of the 20 contests it has been named as the moneyline favorite in this year.
• This season, the Retrievers have come away with a win 15 times in 16 chances when named as a favorite of at least -166 or better on the moneyline.
• Vermont has lost all four of the games it has been the underdog on the moneyline this season.
• The Catamounts have played four times as a moneyline underdog with odds of +138 or longer, and fell in each game.
• The moneyline set for this matchup implies UMBC has a 62.4% chance of walking away with the win.

UMBC vs. Vermont Head-to-Head Comparison

• UMBC was 38th in the nation in points scored (80 per game) last year and 22nd-worst in points conceded (78.8).
• Last year, UMBC was 294th in the country in rebounds (30 per game) and sixth-worst in rebounds conceded (35.7).
• At 14.6 assists per game last season, UMBC was 99th in the nation.
• Last season, UMBC was 164th in the nation in turnovers committed (11 per game) and 100th in turnovers forced (12.1).
• Although Vermont scored just 66.6 points per game last year (21st-worst in college basketball), it played really well on defense, as it ranked 13th-best in college basketball by surrendering 63.8 points per game.
• Last season Vermont pulled down 31.5 rebounds per game (200th-ranked in college basketball) and ceded 30.2 rebounds per contest (114th-ranked).
• Vermont ranked 286th in college basketball with 12.1 dimes per contest.
• Vermont committed 10.2 turnovers per game (87th-ranked in college basketball). It forced 10 turnovers per contest (305th-ranked).

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