UFC Atlantic City: Best Bets, Fight Previews, and Daily Fantasy Picks

If you crave violence, artistry, and competition in its purest form, the Ultimate Fighting Championship might be for you.

Colloquially known as "UFC," the world's largest mixed martial arts promotion holds around a dozen MMA fights a vast majority of weekends throughout the year. The promotion has fathered some of the largest combat-sport stars of the 21st century, including Conor McGregor, Khabib Nurmagomedov, and Jon Jones.

There are plenty of ways to get in on the action every Saturday. FanDuel Sportsbook provides MMA odds including moneylines, round totals, and prop bets for each fight, and FanDuel Fantasy has several UFC daily fantasy contests with lucrative prizes. Regardless of your preferred way to play, we'll break down the environment, chances for each fighter to win, and matchup specifics for each bout.

Without further delay, let's break down the 14 fights at UFC Atlantic City: Blanchfield vs. Fiorot, taking place at the Boardwalk Hall in Atlantic City, NJ on Saturday.

Caolan Loughran vs. Angel Pacheco

Men's Bantamweight (135 Pounds)

Both of these men are hoping a step back in competition yields better results than their UFC-affiliated debut.

To Caolan Loughran's credit, he did the promotion a huge favor by fighting Taylor Lapilus (4-2 UFC) after Yanis Ghemmouri (0-1 UFC) had to step in elsewhere and Lapilus lost his dancing partner. However, the experienced Lapilus lit up "The Don" for a +36 striking differential, and the Irishman landed just 2 of 11 takedown attempts on the veteran from France.

Loughran's trash talk and knockout-centric approach reminds nearly anyone of another man who hailed from Ireland, and we'll see if he has the ability to better show what he's got against Angel Pacheco.

Pacheco fought at 145 pounds on Dana White's Contender Series (DWCS), and his activity kept him much tighter with Danny Silva (1-0 UFC). His -0.47 striking success rate (SSR) isn't nearly as poor as a 40% striking accuracy or 35% striking defense would indicate. His 33% takedown D could also be a path to failure against someone showing the interest to wrestle like Caolan.

Silva's impressive debut still gives reason to believe he'll have a shot to become a UFC winner himself. Dropping down in weight, Pacheco's size could be a real advantage -- or the additional weight shed could take a toll on his ability to absorb Loughran's power punches. We can't really be sure.

With such small, unsuccessful data samples against two quality opponents, it's hard not to believe this line is likely a bit wide.

Betting Verdict

• Loughran's home country and media presence have undoubtedly swayed this line when neither fighter has defeated a UFC winner. I'll pass on a side to collect data.
• Beatings don't come much more severe than the 204 significant strikes Pacheco absorbed -- and survived -- on DWCS. This fight is +158 to go the distance when neither man has been professionally finished.

DFS Verdict

• Going the full distance, Pacheco ($8) amassed 118.2 FanDuel points in a higher weight class. This fight could actually pack quite a punch in the DFS department, but the projected length likely makes the underdog the optimal side.

Jacob Malkoun vs. Andre Petroski

Middleweight (185 Pounds)

Matchmakers buried this fight well below Jacob Malkoun and Andre Petroski's collective UFC success level. It's because it might not be overly entertaining to most.

Malkoun and Petroski are both one-dimensional wrestlers, and I mean that in every sense. Each has just one appearance without landing a takedown or submission attempt, and they were knocked out in a combined 84 seconds. Someone will, in theory, be the better striker here, but that's pretty hard to decipher as of now.

The favorite, Malkoun (-245), is a training partner of Robert Whittaker, and don't hold his last lost against him. In a fight he was dominating, Malkoun was the victim of one of the most ludicrous DQ rulings in UFC history. The wrestler is 3-2 in UFC, averaging 7.20 takedowns per 15 minutes with solid 44% accuracy. I've always wondered about his longevity in matchups like these without a career win via submission, though.

Petroski is very different. Averaging 2.5 submission attempts per 15, the Pennsylvanian has two subs in UFC -- and four overall. Though he hasn't quite posted the same takedown volume (4.48 per 15 minutes) as Malkoun, his efficiency (54%) has actually been better. Plus, while the Aussie hasn't defended any of the three takedown attempts he's faced, Petroski's defense (71%) has been pretty solid.

However, this is no "free" outcome despite what the stats say. It is worth remembering that Malkoun has faced five multi-time UFC winners -- including Brendan Allen (12-2 UFC) inside the rankings -- in comparison to Petroski's four. His competition has been a bit better, and Petroski's endurance is always a bit shaky.

Even with that verdict, it's hard not to like Andre's submission upside and superior defensive sample at a +194 price point.

Betting Verdict

• My model favors Petroski in this spot, awarding him a 55.2% win probability. I totally understand that given the submission upside and a bit more success at distance thus far. His current moneyline (+194) is even better than what I got (+175) expecting this line to shorten.
  • If you like Malkoun, I would just wait to live bet him after what is likely a tough first round. Petroski tends to fade. I might even hedge my own position with this strategy.
• Malkoun has yet to win inside the distance -- or even threaten to. It's not surprising the model views this 62.1% likely to end in a decision.
  • I'm still showing value on Petroski's submission prop (+650), which I have as 28.3% likely. That implies +255 odds.

DFS Verdict

• Petroski ($11) has legitimate first-round upside facing a foe I've got projected to win just 5.0% of the time inside the distance. He's a no-brainer in this realm even if the betting market is no sure proposition.

Melissa Gatto vs. Viktoriia Dudakova

Women's Flyweight (125 Pounds)

Melissa Gatto has gotten an assortment of what women's 125 has to offer thus far.

She aced through the division's entry level with a pair of finishes against fighters with a 6-8 combined record, but ranked fighters Tracy Cortez and Ariane Lipski firmly closed the door on the Brazilian grappler. Curiously, Gatto's best work has come at distance, landing a plus 48% of her own significant-strike attempts and defending 54%. She's struggled securing takedowns (21% accuracy) to get her where she's most comfortable from the regional scene.

This is a peculiar matchup for her as strawweight prospect Viktoriia Dudakova moves up in weight. Dudakova is one of the better women's division prospects in UFC at the moment, landing four takedowns on DWCS to earn this contract and boxing up Jinh Yu Frey (2-6 UFC) to post a +27 striking differential in her last fight when many felt she was a one-trick pony.

Dudakova's striking accuracy (52%) and defense (50%) hover around Gatto's, but her speed might be a key factor as she moves up in weight. At 5'5" and missing the 115-pound mark in her last fight, this move was only a matter of time.

Overall, the Brazilian's willingness to cede top control time could be her undoing against the Russian's excellent wrestling, and I was impressed with Viktoriia's striking in her last bout. Previous competition makes this hard to forecast, so the +124 underdog is probably the value side.

Betting Verdict

• Gatto is 0-1 as a UFC favorite, and Dudakova has yet to be an underdog after -345 average odds in her first two appearances. This is an odd fight to evaluate, but the line is wide enough that I'd understand a play on Dudakova's moneyline (+124).
• This fight is a whopping -172 to go the distance, which also sticks to the division's historical trends. Gatto hasn't been finished inside the distance, and Dudakova has never lost, so it's hard to determine how and when an early stoppage might happen.

DFS Verdict

• With such lengthy odds to go the distance between two grapplers, a fade of this entire fight might end up the right move. Dudakova ($13) could potentially secure a win bonus as the value play, though.

Ibo Aslan vs. Anton Turkalj

Light Heavyweight (205 Pounds)

It's pretty rare that a fighter encounters a rematch in their UFC debut, but Ibo Aslan will.

Aslan fought Anton Turkalj in August 2020, and Turkalj handed him his only pro loss by submission in about seven minutes. With the whole fight free on YouTube, you're welcome to watch the whole bout, but my assessment was Aslan was convincingly winning -- until he wasn't. A little under four years later, we'll see if the Turkish 205-pounder has made the necessary improvements.

I certainly think he's in the right place to do so, training with Sean Strickland, Chris Curtis, and my co-favorite UFC gym at present, Xtreme Couture. Aslan has waltzed through four opponents -- all in the first round -- since that loss, and his efficiency on DWCS was phenomenal. He landed 72% of his significant strikes and defended 63% of his opponents'.

On the flip side, Turkalj's UFC path has been far bumpier. You can give him a pass for losses to ranked fighters like Jailton Almeida and Vitor Petrino, but a now-retired Tyson Pedro also needed just 132 seconds to blitz through Turkalj's 49% striking defense and knock him out.

With a slender build for the division, Turkalj's game has always been crafty and based on endurance, averaging 6.55 takedowns per 15 minutes with 51% accuracy. However, he doesn't defend his opponents' takedown attempts well (16%) and hasn't shown a submission attempt since the Aslan bout.

I'm not surprised this line is close when "The Pleasure Man" stopped Aslan inside the distance, but Ibo appears to have significantly improved from that appearance -- which was far from a bad showing before a mistake. I think he's a worthy favorite.

Betting Verdict

• The minimal data here makes it hard to give specific betting advice, but Aslan's moneyline (-128) makes plenty of sense given his training camp and the entire context of their first fight. It could look like extreme value.
• Aslan has never seen the scorecards as a pro, and 9 of Turkalj's 11 pro fights have ended early. This one has a line of under 1.5 rounds (-158) for a reason.

DFS Verdict

• This volatile mid-range bout will swing plenty of tournament results. I'm a bit unsure of what the popularity dynamic looks like when Turkalj is 1-0 in the series yet Aslan ($16) is favored.

Dennis Buzukja vs. Connor Matthews

Featherweight (145 Pounds)

Boston and New York's rivalry on the diamond is unquestioned. Now, a chapter will hit the octagon.

Training with Ray Longo in Huntington, Dennis Buzukja likely needs a win on Saturday to save his UFC career. While Buzukja's been a heavy underdog in both of his first two UFC fights, he's been lit up like a Christmas tree. Buzukja's 40% striking defense led to a knockout loss versus Jamall Emmers in November, and Sean Woodson (6-1-1 UFC) toyed with him to land four of his five total career takedowns and showcase some new skills. He's stepping all the way back to a debutant to see if there is hope.

Connor Matthews is a two-time DWCS alum, losing to Francis Marshall (1-2 UFC) in his first appearance. He surrendered six takedowns in that fight but flipped the script to land seven on his opponent -- and win -- last October. "The Controller" trains with the New England Cartel, whose most notable UFC reps are Calvin Kattar and Rob Font inside the rankings.

Matthews' lopsided loss to Marshall does raise some concerns about his overall future, but there's no arguing about where he stands from a statistical point this weekend. He's posted a higher striking accuracy (44%) and defense (55%) than Buzujka with significantly more upside to wrestle.

At 31, Matthews is also more of a finished product than the 26-year-old favorite. You're asking for trouble to bet on this near-pick 'em, but I'm not sure how you don't side with Boston over New York like it's October 2004.

Betting Verdict

• I haven't gotten to the window to support Matthews' moneyline given pretty gut-wrenching data against Marshall, but I'll pick him to win here.
  • 71% of the underdog's pro wins have come via submission, so a small dart at the sub prop (+500) would be the more responsible way to support this side.
• Buzukja's lone pro loss by finish came in his last fight, and Matthews hasn't been finished in eight pro fights. I'm expecting length in this fight, and oddsmakers agree, setting over 2.5 rounds at -172.

DFS Verdict

• Most of my Matthews ($14) exposure will be in this format as a slight value play. I'm not tripping to get to many underdogs on this card, so his potential win bonus could prove paramount.

Julio Arce vs. Herbert Burns

Featherweight (145 Pounds)

Harkening back to a "first-round-or-bust" forecast on Justin Tafa last week, I think I can put the same on Herbert Burns this week.

The brother of 170-pound contender Gilbert Burns has experienced the highs and lows of UFC to the fullest. In addition to his lineage, he was on several prospect watchlists after first-round finishes of Darrick Minner (2-4 UFC) and Nate Landwehr (4-3 UFC), but moving up in competition exposed some of his greatest faults.

I was wary about even modeling "The Blaze" because of video-game-like numbers behind his grappling, including 3.92 takedowns and 3.3 submission attempts per 15 minutes. The reason they're so high? If opponents have survived his early flurry with basic jiu-jitsu defense, Burns has badly fatigued and been finished in each of his last two bouts.

Julio Arce has been professionally submitted once in 2016 and has a 95% takedown D in UFC, which explains why this line is what it is. The well-respected boxer has defended takedowns as well as any featherweight in the world with three knockouts and a submission during his promotional tenure.

In addition to Burns' fatigue issues, he's also got just a 30% striking D. I wouldn't be surprised if Arce is able to find the chin early.

My model's forecast doesn't really vote against public perception in this spot, and any betting strategy with Arce comes with an extremely simple hedge.

Betting Verdict

• Even with Burns getting an extraordinary amount of benefit of the doubt due to his counting stats, the model still forecasts Arce to win 60.4% of the time. That likely means Arce's moneyline (as most -385 ones are) and inside-the-distance prop (-150) are overvalued in some way.
  • If you'd still like to take either, Burns' first-round (+850) and second-round (+1600) props are long enough to hedge. The guy has shown to have at best six minutes of gas; skip his moneyline for these instead.
• Arce's decision history is why the model only projects a finish 59.6% of the time, but Burns has just 4 decisions in 15 pro fights -- and none with UFC. After actively quitting in his last fight, I can't trust Burns to bet this fight to go the distance.

DFS Verdict

• Though we have some trepidation of an early surprise, Arce ($23) figures to stop this one within 10 minutes if he survives the storm. Balancing all of these outcomes, he's undoubtedly still an MVP candidate.

Loopy Godinez vs. Virna Jandiroba

Women's Strawweight (115 Pounds)

Is this a changing of the guard at 115?

Loopy Godinez's ceiling seems pretty infinite. The Mexican strawweight's lone setback in the division was a decision loss to Angela Hill in which she had a +7 striking differential, and she added to her resumé turning away fellow ranked contender Tabatha Ricci (4-2 UFC) in November.

Analytically, Loopy is without a weakness. Her 49% striking accuracy and 62% striking defense are both excellent, and she's truly dominated the unprepared with her grappling (3.39 takedowns per 15 minutes). Godinez also has two UFC wins by submission and averages 1.1 attempts per 15 minutes, and those jiu-jitsu skills will be paramount against a true savant in the category, Virna Jandiroba.

Jandiroba's rise to UFC came through jiu-jitsu -- even defeating Amanda Nunes in that regard. That carried her through 115's entry level, but we've seen "Carcara" struggle against solid BJJ players that have a bit more well-roundedness to their game. A -0.69 SSR saw her on the wrong side of Amanda Ribas, Mackenzie Dern, and Carla Esparza inside the rankings.

This is a huge test for the legitimacy of Godinez's grappling, but an 86% takedown D inspires plenty of hope. At this stage, if you've stuffed Jandiroba's efforts to get things to the mat, you've beaten her without much trouble. Forecasting Loopy to be a better striker than any the previous three opponents who defeated her, I understand a -215 moneyline.

Betting Verdict

• My model has Loopy forecasted the winner of this fight 64.8% of the time. Her sizable knockdown rate (1.37%) and rate of submissions actually leads to a forecast of an early finish 34.6% of the time.
  • Therefore, Godinez's inside-the-distance (+500) and knockout (+800) props are likely too wide. I've got them at +190 and +420, respectively.
• I found it peculiar that the model only expects this one to go the distance 55.6% of the time compared to -260 on FanDuel. The submission volume and power (from Godinez) is solid, but Jandiroba has also never lost inside the distance.

DFS Verdict

• Loopy's fights always seem to be one to fade in this regard, but this perhaps the largest striking advantage of her UFC career. An $18 salary is more than fair if she does secure that result.

Jamall Emmers vs. Nate Landwehr

Featherweight (145 Pounds)
Austin's Fight of the Night

As a fan of Jamall Emmers' long, long ago, it pains me to acknowledge how significantly overvalued he is here.

In an August 2021 bout with Pat Sabatini, Emmers dislocated his knee as badly as I've ever seen on a submission attempt, and we just haven't seen the same juice since his return. "Pretty Boy" lost to Jack Jenkins (2-1 UFC) while trouncing two others without a UFC win. A swift knockout of the aforementioned Buzukja just didn't change my opinion of his reduced form.

Overall, Emmers' +1.31 SSR is solid with plus striking accuracy (48%) and defense (57%). He's also added 1.96 takedowns per 15 minutes with a solid 90% takedown D from opponents. I'm glad I was able to model him to remove some of this bias, but a -192 favorite over Nate Landwehr is pretty absurd.

Landwehr's last bout, a decision loss inside the rankings to Dan Ige, was a significantly different level of competition. Since Emmers' last victory over a UFC winner, Landwehr has trumped three with a combined 10 wins between them. So, while is +0.56 SSR isn't as strong, it never was going to be.

"Nate the Train" has a high motor, attempting 13.35 significant strikes per minute and landing a good amount of them (46%). His striking (55%) and takedown (86%) defense is also pretty awesome for a guy largely considered a brawler. Plus, Nate has two UFC wins via sub -- an area Emmers clearly isn't super comfortable.

Anecdotally before any research, I favored Landwehr here. 74% of Tapology's MMA fans and users feel the same. It made me feel much, much better that my analytical model agreed.

Betting Verdict

• On the strength of activity and level of competition, I've got Landwehr pegged to win 56.7% of the time on Saturday. It's well off the market, which I believe is overreacting to Emmers' career-long performance versus since the injury.
  • I bet Nate at +170 on Sunday, but a +154 moneyline is still showing plenty of value in the model.
• I've got this fight projected to see its full distance 63.9% of the time, which also doesn't bode well for laying chalk against the more voluminous striker.

DFS Verdict

• This is my fight of the night with two elite takedown Ds. I'm forecasting a 15-minute war on the feet. As usual, that leans me toward Landwehr ($13) at salary but doesn't disqualify Emmers ($18) from overall consideration.

Chidi Njokuani vs. Rhys McKee

Welterweight (170 Pounds)

The scale might have been a tougher foe for Chidi Njokuani this week than Rhys McKee will be.

For the first time in six years, Njokuani cut to 170 pounds after spending a bulk of his pro career at 185. At 35 years old, that adjustment can be really tough, but he's hoping it provides the physical advantages needed to turn around a 2-3 start.

It's not like "Chidi Bang Bang" has reason to hang his head when the three defeats have come to opponents with a combined 15 UFC wins between them. McKee still has a bagel in that column through a trio of appearances. Beyond that, Njokuani's +0.85 SSR behind elite striking accuracy (60%) and defense (53%) implies far better results.

He's struggled with wrestling defense -- as has McKee. They're likely both delighted to see a fellow striker. Ceding two inches of reach, the 28-year-old Irishman seems outgunned, though.

McKee's UFC career has involved going through Khamzat Chimaev, Alex Morono, and Ange Loosa, so he hasn't fought the easiest competition, either. Nonetheless, his uncompetitive -3.41 SSR has been a steady theme in all three bouts, and I'm skeptical his power with Cage Warriors translates to this level; he's yet to record a knockdown.

For as long as Njokuani's gas tank and durability hold, he's the better striker and fighter. McKee has actually shortened from +172 on Sunday to +118 now as many don't trust those things will, but I don't feel like backing someone whose win condition relies solely on the shortcomings of their more successful opponent.

Betting Verdict

• Not facing a wrestling threat for the first time in five UFC fights, Njokuani's moneyline (-144) might be undervalued in this spot with plenty of knockout or decision equity. Not having to grapple will be a tremendous lift to his energy level.
• McKee has finished all 13 pro wins, but it's come against dreadful competition. Going the distance in two of his three UFC losses, I'm fairly stumped on this total.

DFS Verdict

• Though coming with some risk, Njokuani ($17) is an MVP candidate when looking at historical trends. McKee has ceded at least 114 FanDuel points to all three prior opponents, and it's not as if he's lacking the tools and efficiency to make it happen.

Bill Algeo vs. Kyle Nelson

Featherweight (145 Pounds)

Slowly but surely, Kyle Nelson is becoming a tough out in this featherweight division.

Granted, Nelson's last two wins leave quite a bit to be desired. Fernando Padilla has just quick finishes to mark his UFC success to this point, and Blake Bilder (1-2 UFC) seems undersized and on his way out of the promotion. Nonetheless, "The Monster" has size and quality striking (52%) and takedown (73%) defense that's allowed him to hang around and see the distance in his last four bouts.

The Canadian sees a gigantic step up in competition to Bill Algeo in this stage. Once a last-minute signing as a journeyman, "Señor Perfecto" has ripped off wins in four of his last five, and you could argue he got robbed on the cards in the exception.

Algeo's excellent conditioning has led to landing 6.11 significant strikes per minute with great 52% accuracy, avoiding damage to the tune of a +1.70 SSR. That offense seems like an ideal fit for Nelson's low volume, but there is a weakness-on-weakness battle that'll likely decide this fight. Nelson's 20% takedown accuracy is poor, but so is Algeo's 46% takedown D.

Nonetheless, I think the biggest edge in the favorite's corner here is his size. With an inch of height and two of reach, Algeo won't be bullied like a more slender Padilla and smaller Bilder were in Nelson's previous upsets.

As MMA judging criteria shifts to striking damage over control, Algeo seems like a solid pick.

Betting Verdict

• I've got Algeo 66.3% likely to win this fight, which implies -195 odds. Though not leaping to bet his moneyline, he's a strong win pick.
• The model projects this fight to go its full distance 74.0% of the time, which mirrors these two's combined 80% decision rate since the start of 2021.
  • Algeo's decision prop (+120) is a bit overvalued. I'm projecting it at 43.2% likely.

DFS Verdict

• Nelson hasn't ceded more than 45 FanDuel points to his opponent since the start of 2021, but Señor Perfecto ($19) is also easily the best fighter of the five in this sample. While a decent flex play, Algeo's defense-first matchup has me staying away at MVP.

Nursulton Ruziboev vs. Sedriques Dumas

Middleweight (185 Pounds)

For reasons in and out of the cage, Sedriques Dumas' UFC career has been a total flop.

The Floridian was billed as a knockout artist but hasn't even landed a knockdown in the middleweight division amidst his 2-1 start. He bested Cody Brundage (4-4 UFC) when Brundage had just a week to prep for the bout last May, and Dumas' last fight with Abu Azaitar (1-2 UFC) was a razor-close decision in which he had a -7 striking differential.

I just don't see what he does well. In addition to a -0.13 SSR, his offensive wrestling (0.77 takedowns per 15) has been minimal, and his takedown D (40%) is a huge concern entering this fight with Nursulton Ruziboev.

Ruziboev originates from Uzbekistan, but he's in a quality training room at Renzo Gracie Philly with the aforementioned Petroski and Jeremiah Wells (4-2 UFC) from this same division. The 30-year-old already has 45 pro fights, winning a whopping 20 of them by submission. He's projected to have a huge grappling advantage here.

However, "Black" made noise with his hands in his UFC debut, starching Brunno Ferreira in 77 seconds. His analytical sample is a bit skewed from that result, but a power advantage would give Dumas even one fewer path to victory.

Winning UFC records don't come much less impressive than Dumas', and he's been paired up with one of the promotion's most intriguing mystery men in the backyard of his training facility? The writing is on the wall here.

Betting Verdict

• Though the moneyline (-235) is quite wide for a small sample, the upside to it is fading Dumas with a fighter that has solid tools. I prefer Ruziboev's submission prop (+145) given Dumas' complete ineptitude on the ground thus far, including a loss via sub to Josh Fremd (2-3 UFC) in his debut.
• This fight is -600 to not see the distance, which has been the case in 77.8% of the favorite's pro fights. With that said, Dumas has shown no ability to finish UFC-level competition, so he might have the lone bit of decision equity in this one.

DFS Verdict

• Not only is the betting data supporting the case for Ruziboev ($20) at MVP, but his own traits of power and submission danger are exactly what you'd hope for from a candidate. I think he's the best one on Saturday's card.

Bruno Silva vs. Chris Weidman

Middleweight (185 Pounds)

Somehow, the UFC keeps finding spots where I have to consider betting Chris Weidman. I wish they'd stop.

The 39-year-old former middleweight champion suffered one of the sport's most gruesome leg breaks in 2021, so returning at all was quite the story. Beyond just a return bout, he went the distance with Brad Tavares (15-9 UFC) in a pretty awful matchup against Tavares' 81% takedown defense.

"The All-American" still, despite gobs of adversity, averages 3.60 takedowns per 15 minutes with modest 43% accuracy. There's no doubting his ability there. It's six (T)KO losses in his last seven defeats (including the injury) that should be the concern against Bruno Silva.

"Blindado" Silva has also lost four of his last five at 34 years old, so this isn't a matchup of true contenders. Bruno's best moment came going the distance with two-division champ Alex Pereira, but he's been finished in two of three after that. Silva's -0.90 SSR comes with marginal power (0.66% knockdown rate), and he's seemed entirely lost in grappling situations. After all, 7 of his 10 pro losses have been submissions.

Weidman's durability meeting Silva's knockout reputation explains this line, but I don't actually believe Bruno's power or efficiency will present challenges different for Weidman than Tavares. On the flip side, Chris should have an easier time getting takedowns on Silva (73% takedown D) than he did his prior foe.

My model's forecast of this fight seems more appropriate than this wide line, which is likely due to the public sending Weidman to pasture.

Betting Verdict

• I've still got Silva favored to win this fight 58.6% of the time (-140 implied), but his own issues can't be overlooked to call him a prohibitive favorite.
• I think I'd rather just play this fight to go its full distance (+192), which I have projected 65.0% of the time despite giving Blindado a decent chance to find the knockout (23.3%). He's just overvalued due to Chris' reputation as washed.

DFS Verdict

• If this fight goes the distance, Weidman's fight IQ and defense limited Tavares to just 62 FanDuel points last year. Forecasting Silva as a worse version, I firmly believe it's the underdog or pass in this realm.

Vicente Luque vs. Joaquin Buckley

Welterweight (170 Pounds)

Vicente Luque was originally scheduled to headline this card, but local Philly stud Sean Brady dropped out due to injury. UFC opted for another New Jerseyan in the main event.

Luque will now face Joaquin Buckley on short notice, and that ratchets up the pressure with Luque now defending his #11 ranking. "The Silent Assassin" is coming off one of his most impressive performances to date, showing a new wrinkle by landing eight takedowns against Rafael Dos Anjos -- and going a full 25 minutes doing so. Luque's been finished just once in 20 UFC bouts, and he ended a whopping 13 of those early in his favor.

Though not always lethally efficient, Luque's 0.96% knockdown rate and 0.70 submission attempts per 15 minutes make him a weakness hunter. He likely just needs the chin to survive to best Buckley.

The author of one of the UFC's best knockouts ever, "New Mansa" has benefitted from a switch to welterweight and currently rides a two-fight winning streak. There's no questioning his power (1.65% knockdown rate), but his 33% striking accuracy has also resulted in swings, misses, and three knockout losses in the other direction.

An interesting new wrinkle that Buckley seems to have added is his wrestling. With four in his two 170-pound bouts, it gives him an added dimension beyond a clubbing right hand.

These odds went on a rollercoaster this week, starting at -160 in Luque's direction to -114 now. It's always terrifying to fade huge line movement -- especially after last week's line moves swept the board. However, I truly see Buckley as a knockout-or-bust proposition in this fight where Luque is the significantly more accurate striker (52%), and attempts for Joaquin to wrestle puts him into danger against Vicente's patented front chokes.

I planned to avoid this fight, but value knocked on the door.

Betting Verdict

• My model has Luque the likely winner 55.3% of the time. I decided to bet his moneyline (-114) when it stopped plummeting, but this may even continue dropping again tomorrow.
  • I don't understand a bet on Buckley's moneyline. I've got him winning by knockout 25.5% of the time, so just take his knockout prop (+260) if you like him to win -- and it probably comes early.
• The model does lean violence in this one, expecting it to end 58.0% of the time inside the distance. Luque's inside-the-distance prop (+145) is coming back as +210 in my algorithm.

DFS Verdict

• I'm getting PTSD flashbacks to last week's same-salaried fight where the line movement led to a huge whiff, but I prefer Luque ($15) in this violent battle. A 95% survival rate is hard to ignore in a firefight.

Erin Blanchfield vs. Manon Fiorot

Women's Flyweight (125 Pounds)
Five-Round Main Event

Last Saturday's main event at women's 125 was sizzle. This one is substance. Erin Blanchfield and Manon Fiorot are undefeated contenders in the division who have now gone through at least three ranked contenders themselves.

"Cold Blooded" Blanchfield gets the home game in Jersey for this showdown. The Elmwood Park native has been on my radar for quite some time because of her statistical prowess, and her grappling base survived what should be one of its hardest tests against former title contender Taila Santos. She still prevailed in a fight where she landed none of her 14 takedown attempts due to her activity and cardio.

Even with that ugly fight behind her, Blanchfield enters this one with a +2.26 SSR and still lands 2.86 takedowns per 15 minutes at a decent 36% clip. Santos' 86% takedown D is well-tested, but Fiorot's still has some questions.

"The Beast" from France is much better known for her striking, but I'm not reading a ton into a 91% takedown D when 7 of the 11 attempts defended have come from former (or current) 115-pounders. Her size and strength carried her there.

On the feet, Fiorot's activity (15.12 significant strike attempts per minute) is truly second to none, and her 69% striking D is a challenging puzzle. It's just her own accuracy (39%) that's led to uninspiring decision wins over Katlyn Cerminara and Rose Namajunas, or she'd likely have lept Alexa Grasso for a title shot in 2022.

To me, Blanchfield's well-roundedness is a matchup Fiorot just hasn't faced. Her striking accuracy (52%) is the only mark she'll have seen above 41% in the rankings, and Fiorot's never faced any fighter landing north of 1.50 takedowns per 15. As mentioned, Erin is nearly double that.

My model's result was a great sigh of relief.

Betting Verdict

• I expected Fiorot's sparkling defensive metrics to cause my model a problem, but even it saw Blanchfield's superior accuracy and activity. I've got Erin at 60.9% likely to win this fight, which would imply -155 odds.
• Curiously, I've got the fight 66.2% likely to go the distance. Blanchfield's decision prop (+240) comes with 33.5% implied odds -- showing value -- in the model.
  • While worrying about Fiorot's lack of grappling acumen, length seems like the appropriate forecast given these two's recent trends.

DFS Verdict

• Blanchfield ($21) could have been an MVP candidate on a card like last week's, but with nine favorites clearing -200 elsewhere on the card, we probably should look to someone with more win equity at the multiplier.

New to FanDuel Sportsbook? You have a chance to get $200 in Bonus Bets if your first bet wins—valid across all sports until April 9th! See the promotions page for more information.

Looking for the latest UFC odds? Head over to FanDuel Sportsbook to see the lines for all upcoming fights.

Sign up for FanDuel Sportsbook and FanDuel Daily Fantasy today!

The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author’s advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.