UCSD vs Cal Poly College Basketball Prediction, Odds, Picks, Best Bets for Big West Tournament

The No. 8 seed Cal Poly Mustangs (14-18, 10-10 Big West) will play in the Big West tournament against the No. 5 seed UCSD Tritons (22-10, 12-8 Big West) on Wednesday at Lee's Family Forum, tipping off at 9 p.m. ET.

Before you place your bet on this matchup at FanDuel Sportsbook, here are the NCAA basketball odds and spreads you need to know.

UCSD vs. Cal Poly Game Info and Odds

• Game day: Wednesday, March 11, 2026
• Game time: 9 p.m. ET
• TV channel: ESPN+
• Location: Henderson, Nevada
• Arena: Lee's Family Forum

UCSD vs. Cal Poly Picks and Prediction

All college basketball win probability predictions and picks are according to numberFire.
Prediction: UCSD win (73.8%)

Before you bet on Wednesday's UCSD-Cal Poly spread (UCSD -5.5) or total (158.5 points), check out the betting insights and trends below.

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UCSD vs. Cal Poly: ATS Betting Stats and Trends

• UCSD has covered 16 times in 30 chances against the spread this season.
• Cal Poly has put together a 16-13-0 ATS record so far this season.
• Cal Poly covers the spread when it is a 5.5-point underdog or more 57.1% of the time. That's more often than UCSD covers as a favorite of 5.5 or more (40%).
• The Tritons sport a worse record against the spread in home games (5-8-0) than they do in away games (7-6-0).
• Against the spread, the Mustangs have performed better at home (7-5-0) than away (9-7-0).
• UCSD is 8-12-0 against the spread in conference play this season.
• Against the spread in Big West play, Cal Poly is 12-7-0 this season.

UCSD vs. Cal Poly: Moneyline Betting Stats

• UCSD has been victorious in 16, or 66.7%, of the 24 contests it has been chosen as moneyline favorites in this season.
• This season, the Tritons have come away with a win 11 times in 15 chances when named as a favorite of at least -240 or shorter on the moneyline.
• Cal Poly has gone 9-16 in games it was the underdog on the moneyline (winning 36% of those games).
• The Mustangs have a record of 5-9 when playing as a moneyline underdog with odds of +195 or longer (35.7%).
• UCSD has an implied victory probability of 70.6% according to the moneyline set by oddsmakers for this matchup.

UCSD vs. Cal Poly Head-to-Head Comparison

• UCSD averages 76 points per game (173rd in college basketball) while giving up 70 per outing (69th in college basketball). It has a +190 scoring differential overall and outscores opponents by six points per game.
• UCSD's leading scorer, Leo Beath, ranks 644th in the country putting up 12.4 points per game.
• Cal Poly's -92 scoring differential (being outscored by 2.9 points per game) is a result of putting up 82.5 points per game (51st in college basketball) while allowing 85.4 per contest (361st in college basketball).
• Hamad Mousa is ranked 25th in the country with a team-high 20.4 points per game.
• The Tritons come out on top in the rebound battle by an average of 1.4 boards. They are collecting 33.7 rebounds per game (92nd in college basketball) compared to their opponents' 32.3 per contest.
• Hudson Mayes' 5.7 rebounds per game lead the Tritons and rank 360th in college basketball action.
• The Mustangs are 85th in college basketball at 33.8 rebounds per game. That's similar to the 33.5 their opponents average.
• Mousa is 244th in college basketball with 6.3 rebounds per game, leading the Mustangs.
• UCSD averages 97.9 points per 100 possessions on offense (175th in college basketball), and allows 90.2 points per 100 possessions (57th in college basketball).
• The Mustangs rank 222nd in college basketball averaging 95.9 points per 100 possessions on offense, and defensively are 293rd, allowing 99.2 points per 100 possessions.

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