UCSD vs Cal Poly College Basketball Prediction, Odds, Picks, Best Bets for Big West Tournament

The No. 8 seed Cal Poly Mustangs (14-18, 10-10 Big West) will play in the Big West tournament against the No. 5 seed UCSD Tritons (22-10, 12-8 Big West) on Wednesday at Lee's Family Forum, beginning at 9 p.m. ET.

Before you place your bet on this matchup at FanDuel Sportsbook, here are the NCAA basketball odds and spreads you need to know.

UCSD vs. Cal Poly Game Info and Odds

• Game day: Wednesday, March 11, 2026
• Game time: 9 p.m. ET
• TV channel: ESPN+
• Location: Henderson, Nevada
• Arena: Lee's Family Forum

UCSD vs. Cal Poly Picks and Prediction

All college basketball win probability predictions and picks are according to numberFire.
Prediction: UCSD win (73.4%)

Before making an informed wager on UCSD-Cal Poly outing (in which UCSD is a 4.5-point favorite and the over/under is set at 162.5 points), here are some betting insights and trends for Wednesday's game.

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UCSD vs. Cal Poly: ATS Betting Stats and Trends

• UCSD has won 16 games against the spread this season, while failing to cover 14 times.
• Cal Poly has covered 16 times in 30 chances against the spread this season.
• UCSD (6-9) covers a lower percentage of games when it is favored by 4.5 points or more this season (40%) than Cal Poly (9-6) does as a 4.5+-point underdog (60%).
• At home, the Tritons own a worse record against the spread (5-8-0) compared to their ATS record in away games (7-6-0).
• The Mustangs have performed better against the spread at home (7-5-0) than away (9-7-0) this year.
• UCSD's record against the spread in conference action is 8-12-0.
• Cal Poly has beaten the spread 12 times in 20 Big West games.

UCSD vs. Cal Poly: Moneyline Betting Stats

• UCSD has come away with 16 wins in the 24 contests it has been listed as the moneyline favorite in this season.
• This season, the Tritons have come away with a win 11 times in 15 chances when named as a favorite of at least -200 or shorter on the moneyline.
• Cal Poly has won 36% of the games this season it was the underdog on the moneyline (9-16).
• When playing as a moneyline underdog with odds of +164 or longer, the Mustangs have a 5-9 record (winning just 35.7% of their games).
• UCSD has an implied victory probability of 66.7% according to the moneyline set by oddsmakers for this matchup.

UCSD vs. Cal Poly Head-to-Head Comparison

• UCSD was 51st in the nation in points scored (79.3 per game) and sixth-best in points allowed (61.8) last year.
• With 30.5 rebounds per game and 30.4 rebounds allowed, UCSD was 271st and 129th in college basketball, respectively, last season.
• Last season UCSD was ranked 53rd in the country in assists with 15.7 per game.
• Last year, UCSD was best in the nation in turnovers committed (8.1 per game) and fourth-best in turnovers forced (15.3).
• Cal Poly had to rely on its offense, which ranked 20th-best in the nation (82.1 points per game), last season, as it ranked -1-worst in college basketball defensively with just 82.9 points allowed per contest.
• With 30.9 rebounds per game, Cal Poly ranked 239th in the country. It ceded 34.2 rebounds per contest, which ranked 332nd in college basketball.
• Cal Poly put up 15.3 assists per game, which ranked them 66th in the nation.
• Cal Poly came up short in the turnover area last season, ranking -4-worst in college basketball with 15.4 turnovers per game. It ranked 38th with 13.5 forced turnovers per contest.

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