Toledo vs UMass College Basketball Prediction, Odds, Picks, Best Bets for MAC Tournament

The No. 4 seed Toledo Rockets (18-14, 11-7 MAC) are squaring off against the No. 8 seed UMass Minutemen (17-15, 7-11 MAC) in the MAC tournament on Friday at Rocket Arena, at 5 p.m. ET airing on CBS Sports Network.

Before you place your bet on this matchup at FanDuel Sportsbook, here are the NCAA basketball odds and spreads you need to know.

Toledo vs. UMass Game Info and Odds

• Game day: Friday, March 13, 2026
• Game time: 5 p.m. ET
• TV channel: CBS Sports Network
• Location: Cleveland, Ohio
• Arena: Rocket Arena

Toledo vs. UMass Picks and Prediction

All college basketball win probability predictions and picks are according to numberFire.
Prediction: Toledo win (59.1%)

Check out these betting trends and insights before you bet on Friday's Toledo-UMass spread (Toledo -2.5) or total (157.5 points).

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Toledo vs. UMass: ATS Betting Stats and Trends

• Toledo has compiled a 16-14-0 ATS record so far this year.
• UMass has covered 12 times in 31 games with a spread this year.
• As a 2.5-point underdog or more in 2025-26, UMass is 6-3 against the spread compared to the 6-6 ATS record Toledo racks up as a 2.5-point favorite.
• When playing at home, the Rockets have a worse record against the spread (6-7-0) compared to their ATS record on the road (9-5-0).
• In 2025-26 against the spread, the Minutemen have a better winning percentage at home (.333, 5-10-0 record) than away (.300, 3-7-0).
• Toledo has 12 wins against the spread in 19 conference games this year.
• UMass has beaten the spread six times in 19 MAC games.

Toledo vs. UMass: Moneyline Betting Stats

• Toledo has been the moneyline favorite in 18 games this season and has come away with the win 12 times (66.7%) in those contests.
• This year, the Rockets have won nine of 10 games when listed as at least -150 or better on the moneyline.
• UMass has put together a 5-8 record in games it was the underdog on the moneyline (winning 38.5% of those games).
• The Minutemen have a 3-6 record (winning just 33.3% of their games) when they have played as a moneyline underdog of +125 or longer.
• The moneyline set for this matchup implies Toledo has a 60% chance of walking away with the win.

Toledo vs. UMass Head-to-Head Comparison

• Offensively, Toledo was the 55th-ranked squad in college basketball (78.9 points per game) last season. Defensively, it was 13th-worst (80.2 points conceded per game).
• On the boards, Toledo was 253rd in the country in rebounds (30.8 per game) last year. It was 195th in rebounds allowed (31.4 per game).
• Toledo was 214th in the country in assists (13.1 per game) last year.
• In terms of turnovers, Toledo was 10th-best in college basketball in committing them (9 per game) last season. It was 288th in forcing them (10.2 per game).
• Offensively, UMass posted 72.9 points per game (205th-ranked in college basketball) last year. It allowed 75 points per contest on defense (271st-ranked).
• UMass allowed 33.8 boards per game last season (321st-ranked in college basketball), but it thrived by pulling down 35.8 rebounds per contest (21st-best).
• Last year UMass ranked 227th in college basketball in assists, dishing out 12.9 per game.
• UMass committed 11.2 turnovers per game (186th-ranked in college basketball) this year, while forcing 12 turnovers per contest (112th-ranked).

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