Thursday Night Football Preview: Will the Flacco-Backed Browns Pummel the Jets?

Week 17 will kick off with a Thursday Night Football matchup between the New York Jets (6-9) and Cleveland Browns (10-5).

The Jets will look to go quietly into the night in these final two weeks of the season as they wrap up their disappointing year, whereas the Browns are gearing up for the postseason and will clinch a playoff berth with a win on Thursday.

With this game also comes a revenge storyline. Joe Flacco, who had a couple of uninspiring stints with the Jets, will now go up against his former team. Flacco has put up insane numbers since taking over as Cleveland's signal-caller in early December. In four games, he has thrown for 1,307 yards and 10 touchdowns. That's good for more touchdown passes than any other QB in the league during that span, though he's paired that with a whopping seven interceptions.

Cleveland Browns Stadium will be rocking as Flacco looks to lead this franchise to just their third playoff appearance this century. The game kicks off at 8:15 p.m. ET and can be watched on Prime Video.

NFL odds via FanDuel Sportsbook. Lines may change after this article is published.

Jets at Browns Week 17 Betting Odds: Spread, Total, and Moneyline

• Spread: Browns -7.5 (-105)
• Total: 34.5
• Moneyline:
  • Browns: -340
  • Jets: +275

Jets at Browns Week 17 Matchup Analysis

The Browns have the clear upper hand in this matchup. According to numberFire's nERD-based power rankings, Cleveland ranks 12th overall, made up of the top-ranked schedule-adjusted defense and 28th-ranked schedule-adjusted offense. The Jets, meanwhile, rank 28th overall, with the third-ranked defense and 32nd-ranked offense.

These metrics might indicate that we have a pair of abysmal offenses going up against a pair of powerhouse defenses. But let's circle back to the Browns' offense. Before Flacco was put under center, the Browns averaged just 19.3 points per game. Since Flacco was handed the reins, the team is averaging 26.5 points. Amari Cooper has gone off in his last two games, reaching the end zone three times and totaling 374 receiving yards. His 265-yard outing on Sunday even set a franchise record for the Browns. The Flacco-to-David Njoku connection has also been flourishing, with Njoku reeling in four touchdowns in his last three games.

But the Jets' fifth-ranked pass defense, and the fact that they allow just 168.6 passing yards per game (second-fewest to only the Browns), shows us that Flacco is in for his toughest matchup yet.

With that being said, the Jets have surrendered 30 and 28 points in their last two games, which includes a Washington Commanders team that has no business scoring four touchdowns. While a fourth straight 300-plus yard outing for Flacco might not be in the cards, I trust this Browns offense to do damage on Thursday. The Jets have given up a 70.0% red zone scoring percentage across their last three games (tied for sixth-highest).

Trevor Siemian will make his second start for this Jets team, and we should not expect it to go well. On Sunday, Siemian clocked out with one touchdown, one interception, and a 55.5% completion percentage against a Washington team that, by numberFire's metrics, has the worst pass defense in the league.

He will now have to go up against a Browns defense that is allowing just 110.5 passing yards per game on their home turf. As a reference point for how mind-boggling good this defense is at home, a team could sacrifice double the number of passing yards that the Browns do and still rank 18th among all NFL teams in this regard. The otherwordly home versus away stats for this Browns D don't stop there -- they allow 13.1 points at home (fewest) and 29.4 points on the road (second-most).

If there is a Jet we should highlight, it's probably Breece Hall. Although Hall has had his fair share of dud outings, he is also an outburst candidate. He totaled 196 yards and two touchdowns on Sunday, receiving 16 targets (most this season) and 20 carries (second-most) in Siemian's first start. Look for Hall to become a major bail-out option against this tough Cleveland defense.

Jets vs. Browns Best Bets

Jets Under 13.5 Points (-128)

The Jets have scored fewer than 14 points in seven of their last nine games and are averaging 12.0 points on the road this season. Pair that with a matchup against arguably the best defense in football, who allow just 13.1 points on their home turf, and it's hard to make a case for anything but the under.

To make matters worse for the Jets -- and better for this under -- Greg Zuerlein (right quad) is questionable for tomorrow night. Zuerlein is 30 for 31 on field-goal attempts this season, which is good for the second-highest field-goal percentage in the league. He's 10 for 10 (second-most makes) on field goal kicks from the 40-to-49-yard range, so a potential absence could be felt.

Breece Hall Over 31.5 Receiving Yards (-114)

The Browns have given up the ninth-fewest total receiving yards (421) to running backs this season, but Hall had a team-leading 35.6% target share in Siemian's first start on Sunday, and we shouldn't be surprised if Hall leads all Jet players again.

Hall's average depth of target (aDOT) in this game stood at a modest 0.8 yards, proving he is the ultimate bail-out option for this New York offense.

Hall is averaging 35.8 receiving yards per game this season, and numberFire is projecting 34.77 receiving yards for him on Thursday night. Difficult matchup aside, the opportunity is too high for me to pass on the over.

David Njoku Over 49.5 Receiving Yards (-114)/Any Time Touchdown (+210)

Joe Flacco is a David Njoku fan.

Before Flacco's arrival, Njoku's numbers were still very solid with a 21.0% target share, 33.3% red zone target share, and 22.7% end zone target share. Over those 11 games, he averaged 44.7 receiving yards and scored two touchdowns.

But in the four games since Flacco has been under center, Njoku is rocking with a 21.6% target share, 30.0% red zone target share, and 44.4% end zone target share, resulting in 64.0 yards per game and four touchdowns.

And for as good as this Jets defense is, they have given up eight touchdowns to tight ends this season (tied for second-most in the NFL).

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.