Thursday Night Football Preview: Will the Bears Top the Commanders for Their First Win of 2023?

The Chicago Bears will look to fill the goose egg in their win column in a Thursday Night Football matchup against the Washington Commanders.

Though this game may not be worthy of a primetime slot, there are still plenty of ways we can analyze this matchup to aid in placing informed wagers. The game kicks off at 8:15 p.m. ET and can be streamed on Prime Video.

The Bears’ season thus far has been total disappointment after total disappointment.

Bears fans entered the season with high hopes. Pre-season betting odds stamped the Bears with a win total of 7.5 and +172 odds to make the playoffs. In just four weeks, the team’s win total line has plummeted to 4.5, while their odds to make the playoffs stand at a dreary +1600.

External results show us an abysmal 0-4 record, but internal issues unveil that Chicago’s shortcomings do not stop on the field.

The team has been riddled with all sorts of drama -- defensive coordinator Alan Williams resigned over “inappropriate activity" following Week 2, Justin Fields made disparaging comments directed at the Bears’ coaching staff, offseason wide-receiver addition Chase Claypool was asked to leave the team as he and the Bears work toward a divorce, and rumors are already swirling that head coach Matt Eberflus’ job could be in jeopardy.

A win on Thursday night wouldn’t offset the aforementioned failures, but it could grant the Bears some leniency as they work to figure out the next steps.

Things have been comparatively sunnier over on the Commanders' side. They enter Week 4 with a 2-2 record, and though they are off the heels of two losses, it should be reassuring to Washington fans that their team was able to go on the road and force the Philadelphia Eagles (third-best Super Bowl odds) to overtime last Sunday.

The Commanders entered the season with a win total of 6.5 and +285 odds to make the playoffs. Their win total has since been bumped up to 7.5, while their playoff odds now stand at +250.

Washington's two wins came against bottom-tier teams, the Denver Broncos and Arizona Cardinals, while their two losses were at the hands of two top-tier teams, the Buffalo Bills and aforementioned Eagles. Given that Washington has yet to face a middle-of-the-pack team, it's a bit hard to say where they stand overall, but time will tell whether they are true playoff contenders.

Bears at Commanders Week 5 Betting Odds: Spread, Total, and Moneyline

• Spread: Commanders -5.5 (-110)
• Total: 44.5
• Moneyline:
  • Bears: +198
  • Commanders: -240

Bears at Commanders Week 5 Matchup Analysis

The spread shows that the Commanders are a pretty clear favorite for this game, but numberFire's power rankings indicate that this matchup isn't as lopsided as the spread may suggest -- the Commanders are ranked 25th, while the Bears hold the penultimate 31st spot.

Though the bottom-25 rank of this matchup may denote a trivial game, there is much on the line for both of these teams on Thursday.

We can reasonably conclude that, after going winless through Week 4, certain members within the Bears organization may be fighting for their job, and an 0-5 record does no favors for job security.

Further, in looking at the Commanders’ upcoming schedule, which includes games against the Dallas Cowboys, Miami Dolphins, San Francisco 49ers, and Eagles, it’s safe to say that this game against the floundering Bears is almost a must-win to keep their playoff chances afloat.

Both teams have struggled on the offensive end, with the Commanders entering Thursday with the 27th-worst ranked offense, while the Bears trail behind at 30th.

Sam Howell has proven to be a fairly mediocre signal-caller since being named the Commanders’ starter -- he ranks 18th in Adjusted Total Quarterback Rating (QBR) and is in the bottom 10 of Passing Net Expected Points (NEP) per play.

I wouldn’t necessarily call this a matter of underperforming on Howell’s part. Expectations weren’t exactly sky-high going into the season, and he put up season-best numbers against Philadelphia last week, which is encouraging.

He has a great chance to exploit the Bears’ 31st-ranked pass defense on Thursday, and he should have offensive targets Curtis Samuel and Jahan Dotson readily available -- both were limited in practice this week but have since been cleared for action.

Justin Fields, on the other hand, has been a major product of underperformance this season. After finishing last year with the 15th-best QBR, Fields’ has fallen to 28th in QBR through Week 4. He holds the sixth-worst Passing NEP among starting quarterbacks and has averaged 33.5 rushing yards per game, as opposed to his 76.2-yard average last season.

The onus by no means solely falls on Fields -- Chicago’s receivers have been fairly meh, and Chase Claypool has gone from a non-factor, to a liability, to completely off the team in a matter of weeks. The Bears’ 31st-ranked defense has added further fuel to the fire, and morale couldn’t be lower after last week’s collapse against the Broncos.

The Commanders boast the ninth-ranked pass defense, so I don’t expect this to be the game where Chicago’s passing attack steps up to the plate. Given that Washington ranks 21st in rush defense, there could be some nice spots for Fields and the Bears’ running backs to make a splash, and they will likely need to capitalize on this to have a chance on Thursday.

The over is 4-0 in Chicago's game this year, while the over is 2-2 in Washington’s games. While I don’t foresee the Bears having a major offensive spurt on Thursday -- both due to their lack of offensive weapons and the Commanders top-ranked pass defense -- I do think Howell and the Commanders have a solid chance to capitalize off the Bears’ woes and put up big numbers.

Bears vs. Commanders Prop Bets

All NFL odds via FanDuel Sportsbook. Lines may change after this article is published.

Sam Howell Over 239.5 Passing Yards (-114)

Sam Howell won’t be classified as a stud quarterback any time soon -- but he is capable of clearing this prop, especially with this matchup.

Howell threw for 290 yards and clocked in a 70.7% completion rate against the Eagles last week, and he could be primed to follow up with a similar performance opposite the second-worst defense in the league.

The Bears have given up an average of 267.8 passing yards to quarterbacks this season, and though one of these signal-callers was named Patrick Mahomes, Howell ranks third in both QBR and Expected Points Added (EPA) among the five QBs to face Chicago this season.

Things go from bad to worse for Chicago on the road -- they’ve allowed an average of 310.0 passing yards in two away games this season, and although this sample is deceivingly small, it’s not unlike the Bears to double down on dreary trends.

Receivers Terry McLaurin, Logan Thomas, Curtis Samuel, and Jahan Dotson are all expected to be active for Thursday, so Howell should have no shortage of offensive targets in this game.

numberFire’s model predicts Howell to throw for 247.0 yards against the Bears, leaving a decent amount of yardage wiggle room between that projection and the line for this prop.

Logan Thomas Over 26.5 Receiving Yards (-114)

Commanders tight end Logan Thomas missed Week 3’s game against the Bills with a concussion but bounced back last Sunday, reeling in 41 receiving yards. While I don’t think he will come out as the star of this game, I do think that his receiving yards line is set too low, making this a great prop to target for Thursday.

Thomas is averaging 35.3 receiving yards per game this season. He ranks third on the Commanders in snap percentage (67.3%) and air yard share (13.4%). Ranking third in these categories, especially against a weak defense, should give him enough chances to get 27-plus yards.

Further, the Bears have allowed decent looks to tight ends this season, giving up an average of 44.5 receiving yards to the position. They’ve let up 40-plus yards to tight ends in three out of four games this season -- and I think Thomas’ performance through three games indicates he is poised to continue this streak.

numberFire’s model anticipates Thomas to grab 28.8 receiving yards against the Bears -- lower than his season average but still higher than the set line for this prop.

Khalil Herbert Over 45.5 Rushing Yards (-114)

Khalil Herbert was a bright spot last week. He rushed for 103 yards on 18 carries against the Broncos, and he has a great chance to take advantage of the Commanders’ meh rush defense -- especially given that Washington’s passing D is solid.

The Commanders have given up an average of 122.5 rush yards per game this season, and a player on the opposition has gone for at least 46 rushing yards in all four games.

Though Herbert isn’t the lone running back target for the Bears, he has started to see much more playing time over second-string Roschon Johnson.

Herbert is averaging 49.0 rushing yards per game this season, but the fact that he doubled his season-high in carries last week could indicate that he is in for a higher workload.

numberFire’s projections forecast Herbert to rush for 61.7 yards against the Commanders. While the projections aren’t foolproof, the 15-yard discrepancy between that number and the prop line is quite drastic.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.