Thursday Night Football Preview: Do the Broncos Stand a Chance Against the Chiefs?

Thursday Night Football is back with the Denver Broncos making the trip to Arrowhead Stadium to visit the reigning Super Bowl champion Kansas City Chiefs.

The Chiefs sit comfortably atop the AFC West division while the Broncos enter Week 6 at the bottom of the AFC West totem pole.

Though it would be a stretch to label this a division rivalry game, it is undoubtedly a David and Goliath matchup; the Chiefs have won 15 consecutive games against the Broncos.

The game kicks off at 8:15 p.m. ET and can be streamed on Amazon Prime Video.

To say that the Denver Broncos haven't met expectations this season would be an understatement. In the preseason, the Broncos win total was set at 8.5, and their odds to make the playoffs stood at +184.

They gave up a whopping 70 points to the Miami Dolphins in Week 3 and now post a 1-4 record, so the team's win total has plummeted to 4.5, while their odds to make the playoff stand at a far-fetched +1200.

The Chiefs rebounded from a Week 1 loss against the Detroit Lions and have since won four games straight. They have, more or less, looked like the same dominant Chiefs team we saw win the Super Bowl last year, and this matchup against the Broncos should allow Patrick Mahomes to share the wealth with some of his more overlooked receivers.

Broncos at Chiefs Week 6 Betting Odds: Spread, Total, and Moneyline

• Spread: Chiefs -10.5 (-110)
• Total: 47.5
• Moneyline:
  • Broncos: +460
  • Chiefs: -620

Broncos at Chiefs Week 6 Matchup Analysis

With one of the widest spreads for Week 6, the Chiefs are, understandably, the heavy-favorites going into Thursday.

numberFire's nERD-based power rankings tap the Chiefs as the third-best team in the league while the Broncos sit dead last at the 32nd spot.

Though the Broncos don't exactly shine on offense, their most obvious struggles have come on the defensive end. Denver ranks as the worst overall and pass defense (by a wide margin) and have given up an average of 36.8 points per game. This doesn't bode well for a matchup against Mahomes and Kansas City.

When facing bottom-ranked defenses this year, Mahomes has been fairly unforgiving; he put up 272 passing yards and three touchdowns in only three quarters against the Chicago Bears' 29th-ranked pass defense. He produced similar numbers last week against the Minnesota Vikings' 26th-ranked pass defense, tossing 281 yards and 2 touchdowns.

Though the Chiefs' signal-caller can dismantle the Denver defense, he may need to do it without his best offensive target since Travis Kelce is currently listed as questionable for Thursday's matchup.

Given that a solid second-string receiving target has yet to emerge from the Chiefs' offense -- Mahomes spreads the ball between receivers such as Kadarius Toney, Skyy Moore, Justin Watson, and Rashee Rice -- among others. This could serve as a window where the Broncos can peak their head through.

However, Isiah Pacheco has emerged as a great running option for the Chiefs and has the ability to exploit Denver's 31st-ranked rush defense.

Russell Wilson and the Broncos offense has been hard to define through five games. Though the Broncos are averaging 24.2 points per game (10th in NFL), Wilson and his receivers have been pretty meh.

Jerry Jeudy (20.0%) and Courtland Sutton (21.1%) lead Denver receivers in target market share, but Sutton only averages 45.8 yards per game while Jeudy averages 52.0 yards per game and has yet to fine the end zone.

The Bronco running game hasn't moved the needle, either. Lead running-back Javonte Williams sat out the last two games with a quad injury and is now trending towards playing on Thursday. Having both Williams and Jaleel McLaughlin available in the backfield should help with depth, but quality performances, rather than depth, are what Denver lacks.

Unless the Denver defense picks up their slack in a major way or the disoriented Bronco offense finds a magic spark on Thursday, the only thing they'll be playing for in K.C. is decent draft standing.

Broncos vs. Chiefs Prop Bets

All NFL odds via FanDuel Sportsbook. Lines may change after this article is published.

Isiah Pacheco Over 16.5 Rush Attempts (+102)

Pacheco should see plenty of run opportunities against the Broncos. Wind-heavy weather conditions are expected for Thursday night, which could translate to a run-heavy game.

But more than this, the Chiefs will likely hold a big lead in this game, which could force the passing game to take a backseat to the run game.

Pacheco is averaging 14.2 rush attempts per game through Week 5. There have been three games where Kansas City has held a 14-plus point lead, and Pacheco averaged 17.0 rush attempts in these games.

Pacheco has solidified himself as the top rush option for the Chiefs and sees a 63.0% red zone rush market share. I think his increased usage and the probable factors in this game will see to that Pacheco has a run-heavy night. I'd also look toward the Isiah Pacheco Anytime Touchdown Scorer (-135) market. The juice on these odds isn't very fun, but there's not a whole lot stopping Pacheco from the end zone.

Marquez Valdes-Scantling Anytime Touchdown Scorer (+360)

Predicting which Kansas City wide receiver will catch an end zone target from Mahomes can be a bit of a crapshoot, but there are a few reasons why I think Thursday night could be time for Marquez Valdes-Scantling to shine.

Despite the fact that MVS has yet to make a major mark on the stat sheet, the opportunity is there. He leads the team in route percentage (69.4%) and is third in snap percentage (62.5%) behind the tight ends, Kelce and Noah Gray.

He ranks third on the team in air-yard market share at 14.8%, and his average depth of target is a pretty sizable 17.5 yards.

MVS has seen end zone opportunities, but just hasn't been able to reel in the targets . He is second (behind Kelce) in end zone target market share at 20.0%.

The intent behind the Mahomes-to-MVS conenction is there, but the execution hasn't quite worked. Given that the Kansas City offense has a chance to run circles around Denver's abysmal defense, I wouldn't be surprised if Mahomes is on the lookout for MVS to catch his first touchdown of the season.

Russell Wilson Over 19.5 Rushing Yards (-114)

Denver's QB1 is averaging 23.8 rushing yards per game through Week 5, and I wouldn't be surpised if he finds rushing success on Thursday.

Wilson boasts a 70.59% rush success rate (fifth in the NFL). He holds the league's fifth-best Rushing Net Expected Points (NEP) per carry and is in great company here, trailing only Josh Allen, Mahomes, D'Andre Swift, and De'Von Achane.

He's averaging 4.40 rush yards over expectation and 1.23 rush yards over expectation per carry. Given Wilson's success here, it shouldn't take too many carries for him to clear the 20-plus-yard mark.

numberFire's model predicts Wilson to rush for 27.85 yards on Thursday, leaving a decent chunk of yardage wiggle room between the line for this prop and the model's expectations.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.