Tennessee vs Virginia College Basketball Prediction, Odds, Picks, Best Bets for NCAA Tournament Second Round

The No. 6 seed Tennessee Volunteers (23-11) take to the court against the No. 3 seed Virginia Cavaliers (30-5) with a Sweet 16 spot in the Midwest Region of the bracket up for grabs on Sunday at Xfinity Mobile Arena at 6:10 p.m. ET.

Before you place your bet on this game at FanDuel Sportsbook, here are the NCAA basketball odds and spreads you need to know.

Tennessee vs. Virginia Game Info and Odds

• Game day: Sunday, March 22, 2026
• Game time: 6:10 p.m. ET
• TV channel: TNT
• Location: Philadelphia, Pennsylvania
• Arena: Xfinity Mobile Arena

Tennessee vs. Virginia Picks and Prediction

All college basketball win probability predictions and picks are according to numberFire.
Prediction: Virginia win (58.2%)

Before you bet on Sunday's Tennessee-Virginia spread (Tennessee -1.5) or over/under (137.5 points), see the betting trends and insights below.

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Tennessee vs. Virginia: ATS Betting Stats and Trends

• Tennessee has covered 16 times in 34 chances against the spread this season.
• Virginia is 18-17-0 ATS this season.
• As a 1.5-point underdog or more in 2025-26, Virginia is 4-1 against the spread compared to the 13-15 ATS record Tennessee puts up as a 1.5-point favorite.
• The Volunteers have a better record against the spread at home (8-9-0) than they do in road games (4-6-0).
• This year, the Cavaliers are 8-9-0 at home against the spread (.471 winning percentage). On the road, they are 5-5-0 ATS (.500).

Tennessee vs. Virginia: Moneyline Betting Stats

• Tennessee has been the moneyline favorite in 24 games this season and has come away with the win 16 times (66.7%) in those contests.
• The Volunteers have a mark of 16-8 in contests where sportsbooks favor them by -115 or better on the moneyline.
• Virginia has won 60% of the games this season it was the underdog on the moneyline (3-2).
• The Cavaliers are 3-2 (winning 60% of their games) when playing as a moneyline underdog of -104 or longer.
• The moneyline set for this matchup implies Tennessee has a 53.5% chance of coming away with a victory in the contest.

Tennessee vs. Virginia Head-to-Head Comparison

• Tennessee has a +355 scoring differential, topping opponents by 10.4 points per game. It is putting up 79.4 points per game to rank 92nd in college basketball and is allowing 69 per outing to rank 55th in college basketball.
• Ja'Kobi Gillespie is 79th in the country with a team-leading 18.3 points per game.
• Virginia puts up 80.7 points per game (70th in college basketball) while giving up 68.5 per outing (46th in college basketball). It has a +425 scoring differential and outscores opponents by 12.2 points per game.
• Thijs De Ridder's team-leading 15.4 points per game rank him 272nd in the nation.
• The Volunteers win the rebound battle by an average of 13.6 boards. They are pulling down 39.5 rebounds per game (third in college basketball) compared to their opponents' 25.9 per outing.
• Nate Ament tops the Volunteers with 6.5 rebounds per game (216th in college basketball action).
• The Cavaliers are 20th in the nation at 36.5 rebounds per game. That's eight more than the 28.5 their opponents average.
• De Ridder leads the Cavaliers with 6.2 rebounds per game (260th in college basketball).
• Tennessee puts up 100.7 points per 100 possessions (99th in college basketball), while allowing 87.5 points per 100 possessions (28th in college basketball).
• The Cavaliers average 103.9 points per 100 possessions (44th in college basketball), while allowing 88.2 points per 100 possessions (38th in college basketball).

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