Tennessee State vs Morehead State College Basketball Prediction, Odds, Picks, Best Bets for OVC Tournament Championship

The No. 1 seed Tennessee State Tigers (22-9, 15-5 OVC) square off against the No. 2 Morehead State Eagles (20-12, 15-5 OVC) in the championship game of the OVC tournament on Saturday at 9 p.m. ET. The winner earns an automatic spot in the NCAA Tournament.

Before you place your bet on this matchup at FanDuel Sportsbook, here are the NCAA basketball odds and spreads you need to know.

Tennessee State vs. Morehead State Game Info and Odds

• Game day: Saturday, March 7, 2026
• Game time: 9 p.m. ET
• TV channel: ESPN2
• Location: Evansville, Indiana
• Arena: Ford Center

Tennessee State vs. Morehead State Picks and Prediction

All college basketball win probability predictions and picks are according to numberFire.
Prediction: Tennessee State win (67.8%)

Here's a look at some betting trends and insights for Tennessee State (-3.5) versus Morehead State on Saturday. The total is set at 149.5 points for this game.

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Tennessee State vs. Morehead State: ATS Betting Stats and Trends

• Tennessee State has compiled a 17-11-0 record against the spread this season.
• Morehead State has won 18 games against the spread this season, while failing to cover 11 times.
• When the spread is set as 3.5 or more this season, Tennessee State (5-7) covers a lower percentage of those games when it is the favorite (41.7%) than Morehead State (6-7) does as the underdog (46.2%).
• In home games, the Tigers have a worse record against the spread (5-5-0) compared to their ATS record on the road (10-6-0).
• In 2025-26 against the spread, the Eagles have a better winning percentage at home (.700, 7-3-0 record) than away (.588, 10-7-0).
• Tennessee State is 12-9-0 against the spread in conference play this season.
• Morehead State has beaten the spread 16 times in 21 OVC games.

Tennessee State vs. Morehead State: Moneyline Betting Stats

• Tennessee State has been chosen as the moneyline favorite in 16 games this year and has walked away with the win 12 times (75%) in those games.
• This season, the Tigers have come away with a win nine times in 12 chances when named as a favorite of at least -166 or shorter on the moneyline.
• Morehead State has won eight of the 18 games it was the moneyline underdog this season (44.4%).
• The Eagles have a 3-8 record (winning just 27.3% of their games) when playing as a moneyline underdog of +138 or longer.
• Tennessee State has an implied victory probability of 62.4% according to the moneyline set for this matchup.

Tennessee State vs. Morehead State Head-to-Head Comparison

• Tennessee State has a +204 scoring differential, topping opponents by 6.6 points per game. It is putting up 80.1 points per game to rank 82nd in college basketball and is giving up 73.5 per outing to rank 172nd in college basketball.
• Aaron Nkrumah ranks 114th in the nation with a team-high 17.6 points per game.
• Morehead State's +44 scoring differential (outscoring opponents by 1.3 points per game) is a result of putting up 75.5 points per game (187th in college basketball) while giving up 74.2 per outing (196th in college basketball).
• George Marshall's 13.6 points per game leads Morehead State and ranks 463rd in the country.
• The Tigers pull down 34.3 rebounds per game (63rd in college basketball) while conceding 30.5 per outing to their opponents. They outrebound opponents by 3.8 boards per game.
• Jalen Pitre paces the Tigers with 6.5 rebounds per game (218th in college basketball play).
• The Eagles average 33.4 rebounds per game (102nd in college basketball) while conceding 30.3 per contest to opponents. They outrebound opponents by 3.1 boards per game.
• Jon Carroll averages 7.9 rebounds per game (79th in college basketball) to lead the Eagles.
• Tennessee State ranks 170th in college basketball by averaging 98.2 points per 100 possessions on offense, and defensively is 59th in college basketball, allowing 90.1 points per 100 possessions.
• The Eagles put up 96.7 points per 100 possessions (205th in college basketball), while conceding 94.9 points per 100 possessions (172nd in college basketball).

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