Super Bowl MVP Odds Update: McCaffrey Could Lead San Francisco to the Title

Only four teams remain in competition for the Super Bowl LVIII title, which means the eligible candidates to take home the Super Bowl MVP trophy are starting to get whittled down. Even still, there are innumerable possibilities for how this award could shake out, so let's take a look at the Super Bowl LVIII MVP odds as we enter Conference Championship Sunday.

All NFL odds via FanDuel Sportsbook. Lines may change after this article is published.

Super Bowl MVP Odds

Lamar Jackson, Baltimore Ravens

FanDuel Sportsbook Odds: +210

To no one's surprise, Lamar Jackson shined in the Divisional Round. He threw two touchdown passes, ran in a pair of touchdowns, and rushed for 100 yards. He did this all while maintaining a 121.8 passer rating, good for his fourth-best rating of the season.

Now, he and the Baltimore Ravens enter the AFC Championship game as the 3.5-point favorite against the Kansas City Chiefs. Jackson could tear apart Kansas City's seventh-worst schedule-adjusted rush defense this Sunday and lead his team to the Super Bowl. And, as his Super Bowl MVP chances are concerned, it's quite difficult to picture a world where the Ravens win the Big Game and Jackson isn't the main contributor to the victory.

In the last 25 years, 64.0% of Super Bowl MVPs have been quarterbacks. Baltimore's implied odds to win the Super Bowl sit at 37.04% (+170) while Jackson's implied odds of winning the game's MVP sit at 32.26% (+210). If we place value in the aforementioned 64.0%, it means that, based on the Ravens' Super Bowl odds, Baltimore's QB should have 23.7% implied odds to win the MVP.

But, Jackson is a rare talent and undoubtedly the main force on this team, so in this case, we shouldn't be as concerned with the history of Super Bowl MVPs.

Patrick Mahomes, Kansas City Chiefs

FanDuel Sportsbook Odds: +500

We come up against a similar phenomenon with Patrick Mahomes as Lamar Jackson. Kansas City's implied odds to win the Super Bowl stand at 18.52% (+440). If we stick with that 64.0%, the percentage of QBs that have won this award in the last 25 years, we can see that the Chiefs' QB should have an 11.9% implied probability to take home this award.

But Mahomes' +500 odds show us a 16.67% implied probability. While Mahomes is incredible in the playoffs and took home the Super Bowl MVP just last season, he does have more in-team SB MVP competition than someone like Jackson, meaning we might not be getting enough value with these odds.

Christian McCaffrey, San Francisco 49ers

FanDuel Sportsbook Odds: +550

A running back hasn't won this award since 1998, but when it comes to Christian McCaffrey, we shouldn't throw the baby out with the bathwater.

If CMC wasn't an option in the backfield last weekend, the San Francisco 49ers probably wouldn't have advanced to the NFC title game. The Niners have +135 odds to win the Super Bowl (shortest remaining), and I think they can get the job done without Brock Purdy (+330) having an MVP-esque performance.

McCaffrey is San Francisco's cheat code on offense, and if the Niners make it to the Big Game, we can already project an advantageous matchup. Should SF meet up with Kansas City, McCaffrey will get to go up against a weak rush defense.

If the Niners were to go up against the Ravens, then Purdy would have his work cut out for him against Baltimore's first-ranked pass defense, meaning CMC might have to carry his team once again.

Others To Consider

The value back on Jared Goff (+1200) is intriguing. The Detroit Lions have a 10.53% implied probability (+850) to win the Super Bowl. Based on the fact that 64.0% of QBs have won this award in the last 25 years, we could give Detroit's QB an implied 6.7% chance at the Super Bowl MVP, which is not too far off from Goff's 7.7% implied probability at +1200. Goff is averaging 269.1 passing yards and 1.9 passing touchdowns in Detroit wins this season. He's worth a look if you have faith in the Lions.

Brandon Aiyuk (+5000), Deebo Samuel (+6000), and George Kittle (+7000) are alternate Niners to consider, though I'm wary of how their chances stack up against McCaffrey and Purdy.

Travis Kelce (+8000) and Isiah Pacheco (+12000) are some quality options on the Chiefs. A great Kelce game correlates to a great Mahomes game, but a look at Julian Edelman's stats in the game that won him the Super Bowl LIII MVP shows us a glimpse of potential for Kelce. Pacheco is no stranger to the end zone, so I'd consider him as a longshot option since he can manage a multiple-touchdown game.

Without knowing which two teams will be competing for, let alone win, the Super Bowl, it's not easy to have a firm grasp on this market. Add in the possibility of a game-winning or game-saving play by a defensive member of the eventual championship team, and things get even hazier. It shouldn't be overlooked that 10 defensive players have won this award since its 1967 inauguration -- four of which have come since 2001.

If you're keen on targeting a Niners Super Bowl victory and a long shot SB MVP option, Fred Warner (+28000) might be worth your time. He recorded four interceptions this season (tied for most among linebackers), and 2 of the last 10 Super Bowl MVPs were linebackers.

Kyle Hamilton (+40000) could also emerge as a game-saving defensive stud for the Ravens (four interceptions this season), but the odds on these defensive players are this long for a reason.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.