Sunday Night Football Preview: Two Red-Hot Teams Tangle in Denver

About one month ago, a game between the Minnesota Vikings and Denver Broncos was not exactly a primetime matchup that most were looking forward to. If anything, many were dreading this Sunday Night Football matchup as both teams were struggling.

However, Minnesota and Denver have completely altered their courses over the last few weeks. The Vikings have won five consecutive games -- the best active winning streak in the NFL -- and the Broncos have won their last three contests, which is the top streak in the AFC.

Denver still remains with an outside shot to make the playoffs with a 4-5 record and +520 odds to make the postseason, per FanDuel Sportsbook's NFL playoff odds. The Broncos' playoff line could shorten with another win in Week 11, but taking down red-hot Minnesota will be no easy task. The Vikings have become the NFL's sweetheart, led by the beloved Joshua Dobbs, and tout -230 odds to earn a postseason berth. A few weeks ago, not many people were expecting this Vikings team to be a playoff squad -- especially after Kirk Cousins' season-ending injury.

Fortunately, this matchup has turned into an interesting clash. In fact, I'm quite excited about it. Will Russell Wilson keep cooking, or will Dobbs continue to shock the league with his impressive play?

Let's dive into the matchup by looking at FanDuel's NFL odds and break down each team.

Vikings vs. Broncos Week 11 Betting Odds: Spread, Total, and Moneyline

• Spread: Broncos -2.5 (-110)
• Total: 42.5
• Moneyline:
  • Broncos: -138
  • Vikings: +118

Vikings vs. Broncos Week 11 Matchup Analysis

The Vikings' turnaround has been remarkable, going from 1-4 to 6-4. Suddenly, all of Minnesota's season goals are still in front of them, including an NFC North divisional crown. According to FanDuel Sportsbook's NFL divisional odds, the Vikings are a long shot to win the North at +700, but they are only 1.5 games behind the first-place Detroit Lions.

So, how has Minnesota turned it around? Initially, Kirk Cousins was improving his play with 0.21 expected points added per dropback (EPA/DB) from Week 6 to Week 8, compared to -0.06 EPA/DB from Week 1 to Week 5. Then, disaster struck with Cousins' injury.

Joshua Dobbs has fit in seamlessly, posting 0.16 EPA/DB over his first two games in the Viking purple. To make things even wilder, Justin Jefferson -- perhaps the league's top receiver -- has not played since Week 5 with a hamstring injury. Jefferson may be back for this one, officially listed as questionable.

The offense has still managed to average 29.0 points per game (PPG) over the last two weeks. The run game has been at the forefront since Dobbs joined the team. Minnesota posted 33 carries in back-to-back games -- their highest mark of the season -- complemented by an average of 35.0 passing attempts. This offense has taken balance to another level.

Additionally, T.J. Hockenson and Jordan Addison have stepped up their play. Hockenson is averaging 12.0 targets and 8.9 receptions over the last four games, with 12.6 receiving yards over expectation. (RecYOE). Addison has a 10.3% catch rate over expectation (CROE) and 21.5 RecYOE since Jefferson hit the shelf.

The Vikings have numberFire's 10th-best schedule-adjusted passing offense. The run game has yet to excel as it is numberFire's eighth-worst run offense while averaging 3.7 yards per carry (27th).

The defense also continues to go under the radar, holding four of the Vikes' last five opponents to fewer than 20 points, and it is numberFire's 10th-best overall D.

As fun as Minnesota's current streak is, this isn't all about the Vikings. Let's give some props to Denver too. The Broncos are rolling on a three-game winning streak; they were 7.0- and 7.5-point underdogs in their last two wins against the Kansas City Chiefs and Buffalo Bills.

Despite the recent success, Denver's defense is still a concern. It is numberFire's worst overall defense while holding the second-worst mark in run defense and the fourth-worst mark in pass defense. The unit is generating turnovers at a high rate, though -- 4.5 takeaways per game over the last two. The Vikings have committed the seventh-most giveaways per game (1.7), presenting the Broncos' defense with another opportunity to generate turnovers.

Russell Wilson has improved his play with a positive EPA/DB in two of his last three games. He has a -0.02 EPA/DB during the three-game win streak, compared to his -0.16 EPA/DB over the first six games. Wilson isn't not dominating by any means, but it's an improvement.

Javonte Williams has emerged as Denver's top running back; he has played 56.5% of snaps across his last three games while Samaje Perine had a 27.2% snap share. In the first six games, Perine had a 42.2% snap share, compared to Williams' 38.5%.

Denver has the 11th-best run offense, per numberFire. Williams will likely get another large workload on Sunday, but it will be strength on strength as Minnesota ranks sixth in adjusted run defense.

This game could come down to turnovers and the quarterback battle between Dobbs and Wilson. It feels like Dobbs is overperforming while the Broncos have relied on forcing turnovers during their winning streak.

Ultimately, I like the home favorite, Denver, to cover the spread. Wilson has taken care of the ball this year with only 4 interceptions compared to 18 touchdowns -- the second-best touchdown-to-interception ratio this season. The Vikings have gone without a turnover only one time this season. They avoided a turnover for the first time last week, but the offense lost two fumbles in Week 9.

An advantage in the turnover battle could drive the Broncos to their fourth consecutive win.

Vikings vs. Broncos Prop Bets

All NFL odds via FanDuel Sportsbook. Lines may change after this article is published.

Joshua Dobbs Any Time Touchdown Scorer (+200)

As previously mentioned, Joshua Dobbs has been on fire since landing in Minnesota. His legs have certainly played a part in the Vikings' increase in rushing attempts; he's averaged 7.5 carries and 55.0 rushing yards per game over his last two.

Dobbs also has a notable rushing touchdown streak that's ongoing (four consecutive games). He is +200 to scamper into the end zone on Sunday. Considering Dobbs' recent form, it's difficult to pass on this line.

The Vikings' running back injuries only make the pick even more intriguing. Of course, Cam Akers is out for the season with an Achilles injury, and Alexander Mattison is questionable for Sunday with a concussion. This could leave the bulk of the work to Ty Chandler, who recorded 45 rushing yards with 15 carries last week. If Mattison does not go, it may increase Dobbs' workload in the run game.

Dobbs is already averaging two red zone carries per game over the last two. Additionally, Dobbs has a 33.3% red zone rushing attempt share since Week 9. I like Dobbs' chances of finding the end zone yet again.

Russell Wilson Over 19.5 Pass Completions (-118)

With Russell Wilson improving his play, Denver's signal-caller is another intriguing prop pick. Wilson was especially impressive in Week 10's win against Buffalo, notching a 6.5% completion percentage over expectation (CPOE%) and an 82.8% completion percentage -- his best mark of the season.

The Broncos have not been a high-volume passing team, averaging 29.1 passing attempts per game (30th). However, the Vikings' strong run defense could force Denver to throw the ball more than usual. Plus, Minnesota's weakness has been in the secondary as they have numberFire's 13th-worst schedule-adjusted pass defense and opponents average a 68.9% completion percentage against them (sixth-highest).

Denver's receivers Courtland Sutton and Jerry Jeudy also performed well last week; Sutton had an 11.5% CROE while Jeudy posted a 14.7% CROE.

Overall, the Broncos' passing game should find some success. Give me Wilson to go over 19.5 completions. He has reached 20 completions in five of his last seven games.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.