Stars vs. Oilers: Betting Picks, Props, and Prediction for Game 6

Austin Swaim
Austin SwaimASwaim3
Stars vs. Oilers: Betting Picks, Props, and Prediction for Game 6

In a true gut punch to their title hopes, the Dallas Stars laid an egg to let up three straight goals to open Game 5 against the Edmonton Oilers and ultimately fell 3-1.

Now, they'll head to a raucous environment in Alberta with their season on the line. Will Dallas force a Game 7, or will Edmonton give Canada a squad in the Stanley Cup Finals for the first time since 2021?

Let's dive into Game 6's best bets and player props.

Note: Lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published. All NHL betting odds and totals are from the NHL odds at FanDuel Sportsbook. All advanced statistics are used from MoneyPuck.com and NaturalStatTrick.com.

Stars-Oilers Game 6 Best Bet

Stars Over 2.5 Goals (-122)

Dallas is averaging 3.19 expected goals (xG) per 60 minutes in the playoffs, and this series is well due for extra time beyond that with just one overtime game in five tries. I have to back their offense in a do-or-die setting.

Predictably, they've struggled with Edmonton's defense, which is third-best in the postseason at limiting xG (2.55 per 60 minutes). Yet, when the Oilers' D makes mistakes, they tend to pay off. Stuart Skinner has been as shaky as can be in the postseason, letting in 1.26 goals above expectation overall. That's fifth-worst of all netminders -- with the other four sent home -- in the playoffs.

Across the board, numberFire (3.01), DRatings (2.94), and Massey Ratings (2.86) are expecting some scoring from the Stars in this one. The average expected median between those three (2.94) would imply roughly -129 odds for at least three goals, so there's a smidge of value behind this line.

While not fully trusting that Dallas can fend off Edmonton's star-studded power play to win on the road, I'll back this line.

Stars-Oilers Game 6 Player Prop to Target

Jamie Benn to Record a Point (+108)

If Dallas does go out, I'm guessing the captain is going down swinging.

Jamie Benn has been a force in this series. He's posted seven points (a goal and six assists) in five games this series, but he was among the Stars blanked in a lackluster Game 5. While this line is far from guarantee due to a recent role change, he's still a definite threat to find the scoresheet against Skinner on Sunday.

Benn now plays on the third even-strength line, but it's a better role than most teams' third unit with Wyatt Johnston and Logan Stankoven still getting plenty of burn with him among Dallas' deep hierarchy. However, he's the fourth forward in with the Stars' top line, including Jason Robertson and Roope Hintz, on the man advantage. That's the role that has led to production in the series.

As mentioned, numberFire is pretty optimistic on the Stars' scoring outlook, so it's no surprise they've got Benn projected for 1.0 points in Game 6. You don't need a calculator to figure out that's pretty good value at a +108 price tag.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.