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NCAABRBC Heritage: Betting Picks, Win Simulations, Course History, and Key Stats
A week after Scottie Scheffler ran away with his second green jacket, he's teeing it up again in a signature event at Harbour Town Golf Links for the RBC Heritage.
The field is just 69 golfers deep, and there's no cut.
Here's all you need to know for this week.
Harbour Town Golf Links Course Info
All course data from GCSAA unless otherwise noted.
- Par: 71
- Distance: 7,213 yards (average)
- Average Fairway Width: 32.4 yards (40th of 86 courses)
- Average Green Size: 3,700 square feet (tiny)
- Green Type: Poa overseed
- Stimpmeter: 11.5
- Recent Winning Scores: -17, -13, -19, -22, -12
- Recent Cut Lines: Even, Even, -2, -4, Even
Harbour Town Golf Links Course Key Stats
- Strokes Gained: Approach
- Strokes Gained: Around the Green
- Strokes Gained: Putting
- Driving Accuracy
- Birdie or Better Rate
- Proximity from 175-200
Harbour Town is a bit of a different beast than a lot of courses. It's not very long, but we do see a lot of lengthy approach shots (175 to 200 yards).
But it's not about driving distance. Rather, driving accuracy is much more important.
But the only greens smaller than these that we really get are at Pebble Beach, so you have to be able to get up and down (i.e. strokes gained: around the green and putting).
Golfers who do well here are a mixed bag, so volatility could be considered elevated this week.
Best Golfers at Harbour Town Golf Links
These golfers have the best strokes gained numbers in recent years at this course.
Golfer | FanDuel Salary | FanDuel Sportsbook Odds | Course SG:T/Rd | Course SG:T | Starts | Wins | Top-10s | Top 25s | Missed Cuts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Patrick Cantlay | $11,100 | +1400 | 3.69 | 33.24 | 4 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 1 |
| J.T. Poston | $8,800 | +6000 | 2.70 | 27.00 | 5 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 2 |
| Tommy Fleetwood | $10,800 | +1800 | 2.47 | 22.24 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 1 |
| Cameron Davis | $9,000 | +6000 | 2.46 | 24.55 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 0 |
| Erik van Rooyen | $7,900 | +12000 | 2.37 | 14.24 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 |
| Justin Rose | $8,300 | +20000 | 2.24 | 13.46 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 |
| Scottie Scheffler | $13,200 | +400 | 2.17 | 8.68 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
RBC Heritage Win Simulations
Here's what my model -- based on long-term scoring trends, recency adjustments, and field-strength weighting -- has to say about this week's event.
Golfer | FanDuel Salary | Win% | Top-10% | Top-20% | Made Cut% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Scottie Scheffler | $13,200 | 18.5% | 63.6% | 81.0% | 100.0% |
| Xander Schauffele | $12,100 | 6.9% | 41.4% | 62.9% | 100.0% |
| Ludvig Aberg | $11,500 | 5.7% | 37.6% | 58.7% | 100.0% |
| Rory McIlroy | $11,800 | 4.8% | 34.4% | 55.8% | 100.0% |
| Collin Morikawa | $10,900 | 3.6% | 29.4% | 49.9% | 100.0% |
| Tommy Fleetwood | $10,800 | 3.4% | 29.0% | 50.2% | 100.0% |
| Si Woo Kim | $9,800 | 2.6% | 25.4% | 45.9% | 100.0% |
RBC Heritage Betting Picks to Target
These picks stand out relative to their FanDuel Sportsbook golf betting odds based on my win simulation model and/or my overall stats model, which accounts for the most important stats for this week's event. All stats cited below originate at datagolf and reference ranks relative to the field over the past 50 rounds unless otherwise noted.
Scottie Scheffler
To Win (+400)
First Round Leader (+1200)
Scottie Scheffler was around +400 to win the Masters last week, and while this field is good, it's not quite as loaded as the Masters, and the value here is close enough to consider Scheffler outright at +400 (or thereabouts).
Scheffler has won three of his last four starts (and was T2 in his non-win), and he played here well a year ago with a T11 while showing neutral strokes gained: putting.
He ranked fifth in strokes gained: ball-striking at a course that shouldn't exactly suit him well based on the emphasis on accuracy.
With the putter trending up in a big way, Scheffler is really hard to ignore even at short odds.
My first-round leader model shows slight value on him at +1200.
Si Woo Kim
To Win (+3300)
To Finish Top 10 (+260)
To Finish Top 20 (+100)
If we want accuracy, Kim has it. He's the field leader over the last 50 rounds.
He's eighth in strokes gained: around the green in that span. As for the irons (42nd) and putting (62nd), they leave something to be desired.
With that said, though, he has been trending up with his approach play and had gained in that category in nine straight events before losing approach strokes at the Masters last week when he finished T30.
His form here isn't ideal (three missed cuts over the last five starts) but he also owns a runner-up back in 2018.
Harris English
To Win (+6000)
To Finish Top 10 (+450)
To Finish Top 20 (+170)
English's short game is carrying him lately, and that's not what you want to see. He's 12th in strokes gained: putting and 13th in strokes gained: around the green over the last 50 rounds. But that profile can work for this course. Plus, the putting numbers are supported by 81st-percentile splits from within 15 feet.
English ranks 16th in accuracy gained among the field, too.
An ideal course fit, English has mixed results at Harbour Town (T63, cut, T17, T25, and T32 the last five years) while not hitting his irons well in that span.
But with the odds this long, we're starting to see the value again on English.
Christiaan Bezuidenhout
To Win (+6500)
To Finish Top 10 (+450)
To Finish Top 20 (+170)
My model is a bit low on Bezuidenhout, but I'm still there with him because of the recent stats.
He has finished top-25 in three straight starts, including a T13 at THE PLAYERS, and has made all three cuts at Harbour Town in his career (T28, T33, T19).
He ranks 9th in the field in strokes gained: approach and 4th in putting over the last 50 rounds. His putting splits this season put him in the 91st percentile on the PGA Tour, as well.
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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.