Premier League Betting Picks for Matchweek 10: Will City Roll in the Manchester Derby?
It’s hard to believe that we’ve already reached Matchweek 10 in the Premier League, but here we are.
When looking at the EPL soccer odds at FanDuel Sportsbook, which bets make the most sense for this matchweek?
EPL Betting: Matchweek 10
Manchester City at Manchester United (Sunday 11:30 AM ET )
Manchester City Moneyline (-155)
The Manchester derby will not have the luster of a title decider, but it is always a fixture that's circled on the Premier League calendar.
Manchester United come into this game finally in decent form, having won three games in a row in all competitions. However, those three wins were victories they barely squeaked out against inferior opposition.
Taking a look at the advanced data paints an even worse picture for Manchester United. They are 11th in the EPL in expected goal (xG) differential, per FBRef's model.
With the Red Devils having suffered home defeats to the likes of Crystal Palace and Brighton, the home advantage for United isn't too strong. Even in their home wins against Wolves and Brentford, they weren't too convincing.
Manchester City no longer sit atop the Premier League after suffering consecutive defeats in Matchweeks 7 and 8. These were the only two matches in which they dropped points in the league, but it was enough for Tottenham to sneak ahead of them.
City are also second in the xG differential, with Newcastle having overtaken them in that department. What was notable about City's two defeats was that they were missing Rodri in the center of the pitch. He will be fit and available for this match, which helps the Citizens greatly.
Man United have suffered defeats against their toughest opponents this season -- Tottenham, Arsenal and Bayern Munich. Those matches were all away from home, but we've seen Manchester City go to Old Trafford and impose their will in the past. Given the form of these two teams, it wouldn't be too surprising if that happened again.
Fulham at Brighton (Sunday 10 AM ET)
Brighton -1.5 (+142)
Brighton started off the season hot and carried over their impressive form from last campaign. Then, the Seagulls hit a blip that has seen them go winless across their last five games in all competitions.
Where they have been lacking has been on the defensive side. In attack, they've created the third-most xG in the Premier League, so they're still flying going forward. On Sunday, Brighton's defense shouldn't be tested too much.
The Seagulls are at home against Fulham. This spot should be what they need to bounce back.
Fulham are 13th in the table but are 17th in xG differential. They are really struggling to score goals and create chances with Aleksandar Mitrovic no longer on the team. They have just one match with more than 2.0 xG, and that was against Sheffield United -- the worst team in the league.
Brighton should get back on track in this match. I like them to limit Fulham's goal-scoring opportunities while creating plenty of scoring chances themselves. That can lead to them covering the 1.5-goal spread.
Bukayo Saka to Score (+125): Saka and Arsenal get the dream matchup against Sheffield United this Saturday. The Blades have just one point in nine matches and have conceded the second-most xG this season.
Arsenal are -900 home favorites in this game, with only Gabriel Jesus being odds-on to score. That feels a bit disrespectful to Saka, who had 14 goals last season. He also takes Arsenal's penalties.
Getting +125 for a prominent attacking player -- particularly one who is on penalties -- to score against Sheffield United is an enticing number.
Mohamed Salah to Score First (+380): We'll go with longer odds for the last bet, although Salah to score any time at +100 is definitely a good bet, as well. The Egyptian star has scored twice in each of Liverpool's last two Premier League matches, including the first goal in Saturday's derby against Everton.
Salah may be 31 years old, but he hasn't slowed down much to this point. He's scored at least 30 goals in each of the last three seasons and has eight in 11 games this campaign.
The matchup for Liverpool against Nottingham Forest is a bit more difficult than people may realize. However, the Reds are still -390 moneyline favorites in this game at Anfield.
Salah will be on penalty duty for Liverpool if they get the chance from the spot. Getting nearly four-to-one odds on him to get the first goal in this match is a great way to get in on the action on Sunday.
The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.