Preakness Stakes Trend: What Is a “New Shooter” in Horse Racing?

At Preakness time, bettors often discuss – and throw money at – the “new shooters.” But, what is a new shooter, and are they really the right horses to bet in the second jewel of the Triple Crown?

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What are Preakness Stakes “New Shooters”?

The concept of a “new shooter” is simple. In common parlance, it typically refers to a horse in the Preakness Stakes field who did not run in the Kentucky Derby. It’s a big tent: the concept includes both horses who ran in Kentucky Derby prep races but didn’t contest the Run for the Roses, as well as horses who don’t have points experience, and may be making their first graded start – or their first stakes start at all – in the Preakness Stakes.

Bettors often look at new shooters as options for betting value for several reasons. One, they typically don’t have the wider name recognition as contenders who ran in the Kentucky Derby. Secondly, most of them tend to come into the Preakness off of more rest than the Derby horses – they haven’t run a taxing 1 ¼-miles at race speed just two weeks before. Especially with horses typically taking longer breaks, that rest is appealing, especially if they have the stamina pedigree, or even some form coming out of a final-round Derby prep, suggesting 1 3/16 miles will suit them.

New Shooters Without the Extra Rest

One of the most-often cited reasons to bet a new shooter in the Preakness is because they’ve had more rest. Many modern trainers give top-class horses significant rest between races: a month, six weeks, sometimes even more. But Kentucky Derby horses come into the Preakness after a demanding 1 ¼-mile race, longer than they had ever run, with only a two-week spacing.

Though one of the advantages of betting a new shooter in the Preakness is that they have typically had a little extra rest than the Kentucky Derby winner or another horse coming out of the Run for the Roses two weeks before, there are some horses who come into the Preakness out of other races on Kentucky Derby weekend such as the Pat Day Mile (G2) or the Kentucky Oaks (G1). Some of those horses have been successful in the 21st century: Seize the Grey won in 2024, fresh off a Pat Day Mile score on the first Saturday in May, and Rachel Alexandra took the 2009 Preakness two weeks and a day after romping in the Oaks.

How Do New Shooters Fare Compared to Kentucky Derby Horses in the Preakness?

When looking at relevant patterns for new shooters, let’s look at them in the Kentucky Derby points era (since 2013), since the points era was the most recent fundamental change in how horses prepared for the Triple Crown series.

Preakness Stakes Winners: Kentucky Derby Runners and New Shooters

Here are the Preakness winners since the beginning of the points era, whether they raced in the Kentucky Derby or were a new shooter, as well as the best-performing new shooter of that year if they were not the Kentucky Derby winner.

In the points era, at least one horse who did not race in the Kentucky Derby finished in the trifecta every year except for 2013, the very first year of the system. New shooters have won the Preakness all but one year since 2019, as well. This makes a clear point: do not take horses who missed the Kentucky Derby lightly, as there is always at least one who shows up big on Preakness day.

* Because of the COVID pandemic, the 2020 Preakness happened on October 3, four weeks after the Kentucky Derby.

** This horse came in off of two weeks rest but did not race in the Kentucky Derby.

Preakness Stakes Favorites: Kentucky Derby Runners Versus New Shooters

One of the hopes that bettors have when playing new shooters in the Preakness is that they’ll get a better price because there won’t be the name recognition from the horse running in the Kentucky Derby. And, since the beginning of the points era, every single top betting choice in the Preakness has been a horse who raced in the Kentucky Derby.

Even in the years when the Kentucky Derby winner didn’t proceed to the Preakness – a horse from the Kentucky Derby still went off the favorite in the second jewel of the Triple Crown. That includes Improbable, the beaten favorite in both the Kentucky Derby and the Preakness in 2019; Epicenter, the beaten favorite in the 2022 Kentucky Derby, and Journalism, the beaten favorite in the 2025 Kentucky Derby. (Medina Spirit was eventually disqualified from the 2021 Kentucky Derby, but had not yet been disqualified when he ran in the Preakness.)

New Shooters in the 2026 Preakness Stakes

The 2026 Preakness shapes up a little differently than any of these recent past editions of the Kentucky Derby: neither Kentucky Derby winner Golden Tempo nor beaten favorite Further Ado were entered in the Preakness. Just three of the 14 Preakness horses raced in the Kentucky Derby – two others were entered in the Run for the Roses but were scratched.

New Shooters Among the Favorites

All three Kentucky Derby runners who were entered in the second jewel of the Triple Crown were long shots on the first Saturday in May. Incredibolt was 23-1 on Derby day, and both Ocelli and Robusta were 70-1. Both Ocelli and Incredibolt ran solid efforts in the run for the roses. Ocelli comes off of a close third-place finish; Incredible was a gaining sixth. Off of those efforts, both should be among the top contenders in the Preakness market.

Even so, there is a good chance that the betting favorite on Preakness day will be a new shooter for the first time in the points era. The morning-line favorite is Iron Honor for trainer Chad Brown, a horse who has to bounce back from a disappointing seventh in the Wood Memorial (G2) but fits Chad Brown’s profile of a lightly-raced horse from the Aqueduct series of Kentucky Derby preps bypassing the Kentucky Derby for the Preakness.

Two others toward the top of the market also did not race in the Kentucky Derby. Trainer Steve Asmussen considered the Kentucky Derby for Chip Honcho, but decided to wait the extra two weeks to give the somewhat inconsistent three-year-old a bit shorter trip and a much smaller crowd of spectators. Brittany Russell trainee Taj Mahal is also expected to take a lot of betting interest; though he is making his graded-stakes debut, he won the local prep impressively, and that local prep is actually over the same course as the Preakness, with the race being moved to Laurel.

New Shooters Among Long Shots

As usual, most of the longer shots in the field did not race in the Kentucky Derby. The only Preakness horse to race in the Kentucky Derby other than Ocelli and Incredibolt is Robusta, a Derby-day long shot who never contended, finished 14th, and will probably be a long shot again.

Among the longer-shot new shooters in the field, Todd Fincher trainee The Hell We Did is perhaps the most interesting. Though his last-out runner-up finish in the Lexington (G3) on April 11 came after battling on the pace, he showed in his earlier races that he didn’t have to be part of the front-end fireworks. If he can tap into that style over this longer distance, then his pedigree – he’s an Authentic half-brother to Senor Buscador – he should be ready with his best race yet third off the layoff.

What are the Preakness best bets and picks for 2026?

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.