Olympic Tennis: Best Bets for Friday 8/2/24

The men's and women's singles tennis tournaments are underway at the Paris Olympics. The men's semifinals will take place on Friday.

Where can we find betting value in the next batch of matches?

Olympic Tennis Best Bet

Felix Auger-Aliassime vs. Carlos Alcaraz

Alcaraz -4.5 Games (-132)

Carlos Alcaraz has won all four of his matches in straight sets, most recently knocking out American Tommy Paul 6-3, 7-6. He now faces Felix Auger-Aliassime in the semifinals, and as a -710 favorite, it's fair to expect another rather routine win for the Spaniard.

According to Massey Ratings' matchup tool, Alcaraz has an 84% win probability to defeat Auger-Aliassime on clay with the most likely outcome being in straight sets. Unsurprisingly, Alcaraz owns the best clay-blended Elo rating on Tennis Abstract, whereas FAA is barely inside the top 20.

The recent head-to-head between these two points to the same result. While the two have technically split their matches 3-3, FAA has lost three straight to Alcaraz, two of which have come in 2024. All three of Auger-Aliassime's wins over Alcaraz came from 2021-22, and considering Alcaraz is just 21 years old, it's easy to write off those early losses.

In their most recent match, Alcaraz won 6-3, 6-3, 6-1 at the French Open.

FAA has also always struggled against top competition. He's 1-6 versus top-10 players this season and is 15-39 against them over his career.

Alcaraz has covered this spread in three of his four Olympic matches, and the lone one he didn't against Paul just barely missed (four games).

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